Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Models indicate an anomalous ULL with instability slides over or south of New England, kicking off potentially significant up slope snows in the Berkshires and Greens with LES and instability windex type snow Squalls possible . A reinforcing cold frontal passage Monday night could trigger some light accumulation snow in the Monads ORH hills as far south as the hills in NCCT. Still 4-5 days out but as experience has shown us, these sub 528 ULLS can offer some surprises. At minimum should provide a good kick to ski areas with a nice window of snowmaking heading into TDAY when another snow threat is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Unlike the October system where we had great radiational cooling the night before and cold air wedged into the CT valley and the east slopes of the berkshires, this upcoming system should favor the upslope regions, although I wouldn't rule out some flakes in my hood. We do better in the valley when we are trying to dislodge cold air rather than advect it in from the top down and get rain to change to snow. Congrats ski country and perhaps SNE hilltops is probably the bottom line and we all get to at least look and feel like November again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2016 Author Share Posted November 17, 2016 Congrats PF on the 12-18 on the GFS next week through Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 12 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Congrats PF on the 12-18 on the GFS next week through Saturday 12z this morning looks better than the 6z without question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 12 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Congrats PF on the 12-18 on the GFS next week through Saturday Wow dude that 12z GFS is an upslope white dream. This is just the 24 hour QPF, not storm total...from 6z Mon through 6z Tue...there's more before and after this too. And snow through Wednesday evening before the Thanksgiving event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 12z ECM is on-board. Big snow event for NNY and likely into the upslope areas on VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 12z ECM is on-board. Big snow event for NNY and likely into the upslope areas on VT. How about the Whites? I take it from what I see we'll get a good amount too... which is great, except for my cabin which we just received the logs for, aaaaah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2016 Author Share Posted November 17, 2016 15 minutes ago, alex said: How about the Whites? I take it from what I see we'll get a good amount too... which is great, except for my cabin which we just received the logs for, aaaaah! 4-10 as you rise in elevation by weeks end. Congrats Wildcat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 21 minutes ago, alex said: How about the Whites? I take it from what I see we'll get a good amount too... which is great, except for my cabin which we just received the logs for, aaaaah! Still room for this to move East and put better NW flow moisture into your area. Flow is more westerly over the Whites with more NW flow as you move into NNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: 12z ECM is on-board. Big snow event for NNY and likely into the upslope areas on VT. Yeah, just took a look at the ECMWF – that’s definitely a shot in the arm for the potential through the weekend and into next week. It was bit of a slow start, but maps are starting to appear in here and you can see the interest increasing with the past several messages. It should be fun to see what this afternoon’s BTV AFD has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2016 Author Share Posted November 17, 2016 13 minutes ago, J.Spin said: Yeah, just took a look at the ECMWF – that’s definitely a shot in the arm for the potential through the weekend and into next week. It was bit of a slow start, but maps are starting to appear in here and you can see the interest increasing with the past several messages. It should be fun to see what this afternoon’s BTV AFD has to say. I am 2-2 in threads, hope this system gets you guys rocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2016 Author Share Posted November 18, 2016 Man going to be an epic week for the Greens. Practically perfect up slope setup with high ratios kicking in, perhaps 2 feet at the stake if not more by day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 I think the signal is there for almost 6-12" of snow for the west slopes of the Berkshires, imagine the cold westerly winds hitting the slopes of the mountains forcing the air upwards is a thing of beauty for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 11 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Man going to be an epic week for the Greens. Practically perfect up slope setup with high ratios kicking in, perhaps 2 feet at the stake if not more by day 7. Dude the latest ECM and GFS are textbook. Thats impressive and fits the criteria of 12-18 hours of steady state moisture, flow, and orographic lift for a heavy upslope snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaxSki Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Even looks pretty good for the Southern Greens, hope it all pans out. This would be a Great start for Ski Season!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2016 Author Share Posted November 18, 2016 Interior SNE residents probably see their yards white by Monday morning, some small accumulations are possible. Arctic type air with squalls at any point. Winds will be gusting to near 40 mph with winds chills in the upper teens to mid 20s for many, get out the woolies and fleece feety pajamas with the velcro dumper in the back. Windchill Monday AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Just the QPF signal is impressive from the globals... if this stayed as is, once inside the range of the 4km model resolution they will go bonkers with this. Its almost 36 hours of just panel after panel looking the same. There are like 4 more panels that all look the same too, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 It can only go downhill from here as that's the textbook stuff for duration (high end event is 18 hours or more), moisture, 30-50kts at summit level perfectly out of the NW, uniformed deep layer NW flow, maritime moisture wrapping around with decent PWATs before drier air comes in on Tuesday afternoon/night. The current GFS and EURO models do hit most of the checkpoints on the "high end event" status per past studies (I think it was CSTAR?). That Mansfield to Jay Peak stretch does look primed for 12"+ at this point over the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 PF, this looks textbook for you....skiing may be epic for turkeyday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2016 Author Share Posted November 18, 2016 Not to be taking literally but oh yea this will rock the upslope and LES areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Congrats Forky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2016 Author Share Posted November 18, 2016 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Congrats Forky. Wouldn't be in the least surprised if SW Ct gets one of those long lived LES bands, historically it happens, good stuff. GL's are a powderkeg this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Wouldn't be in the least surprised if SW Ct gets one of those long lived LES bands, historically it happens, good stuff. GL's are a powderkeg this year Yeah I could see one or two of those bands there. Could stuff for the downwind LE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Wow at the 12z GFS. This may be legit. 12-24" mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 I expect just some scattered snow showers east of the Berkshires...no accumulation. Maybe someone will get lucky in a rogue streamer, but not locking that in. It looks really classic for a large scale upslope though for like the entire Green spine and into the west slopes of Berks and Taconics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Picnic tables unite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Picnic tables unite. Be interesting to see totals even outside the picnic tables...has warning criteria potential for the mountain valley towns around the Spine too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2016 Author Share Posted November 18, 2016 21 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Wow at the 12z GFS. This may be legit. 12-24" mountains. Maybe????? la la la lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 17 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Be interesting to see totals even outside the picnic tables...has warning criteria potential for the mountain valley towns around the Spine too. Yeah probably good spill over into Stowe itself with the strong winds. How are the soundings? There might be a little warm air (relatively speaking) above 800 with the TROWAL wrapping around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 RPM wants the Tolland green white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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