USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 There are two camps this morning with the 00z suite with regards to the November 10th Mini-Nor'easter expected. CMC/EURO are further south and more separated between jet streams regarding this system, while the American camp including the 4km NAM share a differing scenario which phases the arctic and pacific jet streams and forms an upper level low overhead that moves slowly southeastward as a surface low develops over eastern MA and heads southeastward from there. The NAM and GFS are closer to the Cape while the EURO and CMC are over Washington DC, a huge discrepancy between the two camps, that is why today's 12z runs will be very interesting to see which camp turns. the 12z NAM update is no different than previous runs, perhaps even more amplified with a large increasingly potent wind field as it moves out to sea with 60-70 knot winds at 925mb over the ocean. If the model continues to trend in the direction of a more dynamic and quicker developing storm system, then there is no doubt in my mind that those 60-70 knot winds could be over the Cape and Islands at some point before it moves out to sea with snow developing over eastern MA as 850 and 925mb drop below 0C. Below I have the two graphics at H5 for the GFS and NAM models they differ on the finite details though. 12z NAM 60 hours valid November 10th at 00z H5 graphics 06z GFS 66 hours valid November 10th at 00z H5 graphics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 7, 2016 Author Share Posted November 7, 2016 12z NAM is warmer than the GFS with the 10th Nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 7, 2016 Author Share Posted November 7, 2016 NAM produces 1" of snow in Boston on the 10th. But total precipitation is only .250" while CHH total precipitation is 1.90" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 NAM is intriguing. Look like it may end as a decent burst of snow in SE Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 Beer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 7, 2016 Author Share Posted November 7, 2016 None of the other guidance came to the NAM solution, the GFS maybe a little bit, but otherwise most guidance is south of the region like towards the Mid Atlantic states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: All that jet energy is off the Carolinas. We pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 8, 2016 Author Share Posted November 8, 2016 Yes we pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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