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PrinceFrederickWx

Mid-Atlantic winter 2016-17 snowfall contest

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On 11/21/2016 at 9:49 AM, mappy said:

BWI: 24.8"
DCA: 15.2"
IAD: 32.6"
RIC: 10.1"

Tiebreaker: +0.5

I think we could still do it. Just need one good storm. 

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On 11/8/2016 at 0:58 PM, EastCoast NPZ said:

BWI:   13.7"

DCA:   9.1"

IAD:    10.4"

RIC:     6.5"

OKV:   3.3"

Tiebreaker:    +3.1F

 

Dud incoming!  Eastern folks partially-saved by the edge of a Miller B.  Western folks remain high and (mostly) dry.

I knew my bullish, enthusiastic nature would someday get me in trouble.  Proof positive that you can never, EVER be bearish enough in these parts.

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9 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Can I get an estimate of when this is supposed to start? Thanks.

Currently thinking that the best snowfall opportunities will be Jan 27-28, Feb 9-10 and Feb 24-26. The pattern is not vastly different from what I was expecting but cold air is being wasted on the inter-mountain west (giving me snow) and so the flow is not troughing far enough east yet, it's not like a raging torch pattern but when cold comes it has nothing to fight against in such a low-amplitude wave pattern, developments at present are vaguely encouraging (very nice storm potential for se VA) but I wouldn't look for much to happen through mid-January until we get a bit of height building in the eastern arctic and Greenland. 

Thus I remain optimistic about a good snowfall total eventually, the prime period is being pushed back into the best six weeks in climatological terms (late January to early March) for east coast snowfall. 

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8 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Currently thinking that the best snowfall opportunities will be Jan 27-28, Feb 9-10 and Feb 24-26. The pattern is not vastly different from what I was expecting but cold air is being wasted on the inter-mountain west (giving me snow) and so the flow is not troughing far enough east yet, it's not like a raging torch pattern but when cold comes it has nothing to fight against in such a low-amplitude wave pattern, developments at present are vaguely encouraging (very nice storm potential for se VA) but I wouldn't look for much to happen through mid-January until we get a bit of height building in the eastern arctic and Greenland. 

Thus I remain optimistic about a good snowfall total eventually, the prime period is being pushed back into the best six weeks in climatological terms (late January to early March) for east coast snowfall. 

Thanks for the write up. I suppose it's not completely impossible- 1987 and 1966 are the first that come to mind for epic winters that were a complete shutout until late January, and then BOOM! I'm feeling pessimistic right now but we'll see.

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Seasonal totals so far:

BWI: 0.7"
DCA: 0.4"
IAD: 0.7"
RIC: 7.1"

Current leaderboard:

Mercurial: 8.5
Stormpc: 28.0
Eastcoast NPZ: 32.0
BristowWx: 32.8
MN Transplant: 33.4

Mercurial is the current leader. Stormpc is in a good spot since he went very big on RIC but well below average on all the others.

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11 hours ago, PaEasternWX said:

How am I currently doing:rolleyes:

 

You are currently in 8th place with a departure of 36.3

If BWI, DCA and IAD get to about 4" or more it will start being really close.

By the way, a blowout winter doesn't necessarily guarantee a Roger Smith win- the four biggest weenies all did their biggest weenie-ing at different airports.

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36 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

 

You are currently in 8th place with a departure of 36.3

If BWI, DCA and IAD get to about 4" or more it will start being really close.

By the way, a blowout winter doesn't necessarily guarantee a Roger Smith win- the four biggest weenies all did their biggest weenie-ing at different airports.

Out of how many people?

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On 1/12/2017 at 2:24 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Sorry, we don't give out participation trophies here. Better luck next year if you lose! :lol:

I just thought an amazing idea. Win or place in x number of amwx contests and get a specialized colored tag!

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On ‎1‎/‎24‎/‎2017 at 1:15 PM, PaEasternWX said:

My +2.3 is looking great.

Actually no, it's not. Even you were too optimistic. BWI is currently +5.9 and it's only going to get worse. We all failed bigly/big league on the tiebreaker except for Mercurial.

Edit: Actually grhqofb5 went +5.0 too, but he probably doesn't stand a chance with his snow totals anyway. :lol:

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1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I'll remind everyone again that just a minor 2-3" event across the board at DCA/IAD/BWI would make this a very competitive contest... although that seems to be very difficult at the moment. :lol:

I guess it's too bad we're going with total departure. It'd be much more interesting - and would require a more skillful guess - if we did and average of the departures per airport or something along those lines.

Not that it matters to most of us anyways!

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