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Pittsburgh PA Winter 2016-2017


north pgh

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11 minutes ago, colonel717 said:

Looks like Para was correct. GFS caves.  Gotta ride wave 1 it looks like.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

Yep, wave 2 is about dead, it would take a very dramatic change to see anything meaningful for us at this point. Wave 1 should put some snow down though, concern with that though is a junk of the precip falls while surface is above freezing and its not very cold before hand either, one bonus though is that it is at night.

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4 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

It doesn't help that all these waves are coming out of the Northern stream, no help at all from a southern vort phasing in.

I feel like the better trends for Thu/Fri wave have coincided with a weakening of the Sat/Sun wave. Now another wave is showing up Tuesday. 

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GFS Run analysis

Last 8 runs looking at forecast valid Thursday morning at 12Z. The Pacific cutoff changes little. The H5 trough along the British Columbia trough shifts WNW with each run. Our energy package estimate is fairly consistent. The BC trough, as it clears out WNW allows western US ridge to be stronger each run. Energy hits the ridge and is flattened a little more due to the stronger ridge. Stronger ridge adds more north/south component to the stream. 

Weaker energy arriving east coast can't develop

Trajectory points this further south.
Doesn't appear at this valid time there are other components which could influence the model solution outcome, but will jump forward another 24 hours and take a look.

 

I'm trying to understand the south track shift and explain why the model is doing it run after run. I don't see a major "a-ha" yet, but I also know our energy source hasn't been and won't be sampled well throughout the next 5 days. We are truly at the mercy of waiting to see how this energy piece comes out and approaches the coastline Friday.

 

Friday morning 12Z GFS analysis

James Bay Cutoff (PV) driving south with each run with exception of most recent 12Z run. With the western ridge stronger and PV to the east further south the trajectory vector changes a little more south. The 12 run this morning appeared to show slight different solution there, and we have to see if this starts a new trend. Meanwhile the Pacific energy is coming ashore, and actually, landfall each of last 8 runs has been migrating north, in response to the BC trough moving NW.

 

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