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Pittsburgh PA Winter 2016-2017


north pgh

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15 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Hello All! I am obviously new here, but have been looking for a local forum for a while. From what I saw during this nice surprise storm, I am looking forward to the updates and discussion from everyone in the group. Looking forward to tracking many storms this winter with you all. 

Welcome and prepare yourself for disappointment. 

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The weekend storm seems to be trending in the wrong direction the last few cycles, the WAA precip shield is shifting further North it seems. The wave on the front afterwards is probably going to bounce all over the place, and its effects will not be wide spread so a narrow band of decent snow will be associated with that feature. Still time to seem a reversal though.

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9 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

Hello All! I am obviously new here, but have been looking for a local forum for a while. From what I saw during this nice surprise storm, I am looking forward to the updates and discussion from everyone in the group. Looking forward to tracking many storms this winter with you all. 

Welcome.  Nice to see some new members.

 

Just about every GEFS for weekend has at least 3 inches and the majority with 6+.  Hope it keeps trending this way.

post-13767-1481720342_thumb.png

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51 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

need this thing to shift 75 miles south!!

Its been amazing to see all the major guidance lock into the same thing for a few days now for this weekend.  Just look at GEFS and the cluster of lows so packed together.  No wonder they are pretty locked in.  THey have come slightly south over the last day.  So hopefully that shift continues.  Plus look at those GEFS  members I posted looking great for us.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_14.png

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1 hour ago, colonel717 said:

Welcome.  Nice to see some new members.

 

Just about every GEFS for weekend has at least 3 inches and the majority with 6+.  Hope it keeps trending this way.

post-13767-1481720342_thumb.png

I'd be hesitant with these, one since they are ensembles they are lower resolution so they might not pick up on a warm layer, secondly, WxBell maps count everything as snow so long as 850 is <= 0 so you could have a warm layer(s) somewhere between so some of that is going to be sleet / zr. Outside of that,  you have return flow around a High pressure sliding off the coast combined with WAA ahead of the low cutting west with nothing to the North to replenish cold air and no block to hold the existing air mass in place.

Right now I'd say that gives us a shot at 1-2 for most of us in Allegheny and Westmoreland outside the ridges. The only benefit is we have an anomalously cold air mass that is starting to retreat so that will buy some time. Faster we get the WAA precip in the better but we all know how fast the warm tongue can wreck everything. Not trying to be a downer, just inject some ideas about what may happen to limit snow.

 

I hope I eat crow and am shoveling 5 inches Saturday at 40 degrees as we sit in the dryslot after getting pounded. :)

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5 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Yea same here. Measured last night after that final band came through. Had between 3 and 3.5 in some spots. Not what i was expecting. Felt like the snowfall rate would have been higher 

Nah with it being wet Heavy snow it compacts & probably melted a bit in the lulls 

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The Canadian still give us a good thump overnight Friday into Saturday before the changeover. Comparing it to the GFS it looks like the low takes the same path but it just takes longer for the warm air aloft to kick in. Regardless it looks like the pattern takes it easy after this weekend up until Christmas  gem_asnow_neus_16.png

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17 minutes ago, Stinkbugspecialist said:

Hey u see we might get some squals tonight and with the brutal cold and if couple inches fall  will school be off ?

Maybe a delay due to wind chills. We might pick up .5-1 inch with some snow showers \ squalls but it seems like the best setup for more intense stuff is near I-80. With LES you can never rule out someone getting a surpise though. Wind trajectory just isn't good for LES for us. We haven't really had a very favorable setup, we do best when there is a little shortwave that can enhance the precip or we can get a sustained fetch off of Huron and Erie. With the trough centered more in the west \ central US it seems we end up with winds more of a westerly component.

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58 minutes ago, Ryd10 said:

18z NAM shows a 5 or 6 inch thump before the changeover 

NAM seems to get the precip in sooner. Its probably better at sniffing out WWA precip, but sometimes it overdoes it so who knows. 12z GFS looked good for the anafrontal stuff Sunday. If that is still there Friday I might start to believe it lol

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