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Met Winter 2016-17 Banter


dmillz25

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March 2017 could be colder than than February...it would be the first time since 1984 that happened...before that was 1960...two very good 2017 analogs especially this month...1889-90 was one of the warmest winters of the 1800's but March was the coldest month with 17" of snowfall...March 1960 was the coldest month of that winter...only three years had the coldest month in March...1880, 1890, 1960...

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4 minutes ago, uncle W said:

March 2017 could be colder than than February...it would be the first time since 1984 that happened...before that was 1960...two very good 2017 analogs especially this month...1889-90 was one of the warmest winters of the 1800's but March was the coldest month with 17" of snowfall...March 1960 was the coldest month of that winter...only three years had the coldest month in March...1880, 1890, 1960...

Wow great stuff as always uncle thanks.  

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21 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

That map will not make many happy considering expectations. I've had anywhere from 8 to 38 inches of snow on different models in the last 24 hours. That's when you know it's time to step away.  

I don't think you have anything to worry about at this point.  The EPS crushes us all.

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16 minutes ago, uncle W said:

March 2017 could be colder than than February...it would be the first time since 1984 that happened...before that was 1960...two very good 2017 analogs especially this month...1889-90 was one of the warmest winters of the 1800's but March was the coldest month with 17" of snowfall...March 1960 was the coldest month of that winter...only three years had the coldest month in March...1880, 1890, 1960...

Wow. Thanks Uncle.

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

March 2017 could be colder than than February...it would be the first time since 1984 that happened...before that was 1960...two very good 2017 analogs especially this month...1889-90 was one of the warmest winters of the 1800's but March was the coldest month with 17" of snowfall...March 1960 was the coldest month of that winter...only three years had the coldest month in March...1880, 1890, 1960...

Unc, has NYC ever had a March with more lows of 32 or below than any of the DJF winter months?

Dec 16...11

Jan 17...12

Feb 17...12

Mar 17...6 and counting

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23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Unc, has NYC ever had a March with more lows of 32 or below than any of the DJF winter months?

Dec 16...11

Jan 17...12

Feb 17...12

Mar 17...6 and counting

it looks like 1960 was the last time that happened...

year.........Oct...Nov...Dec...Jan...Feb...Mar...Apr...Total min/con...total max/con

2016-17......0.......0.....11.....12.....12......4..............39.....7.......6.....3.... as of 3/6

2015-16......0.......1.......0.....21.....14......7......3......46.....9.....10.....4

2014-15......0.......7.......9.....25.....28.....16......1......86...38.....26.....5

2013-14......0.......9.....19.....24.....21.....19......1......93...16.....33.....7

2012-13......0.......3.......8.....18.....17.....14.......0.....60...11.....15.....6

2011-12......0.......0.....10.....13.....10.......4.......0.....37.....5.......6.....2

2010-11......0.......0.....25.....28.....19.....11.......0.....83...18.....22.....4

 

2009-10......0.......0.....17.....22.....22.......2.......0.....63...23.....17.....3

2008-09......0.......6.....19.....30.....20.....11.......0.....86...26.....22.....3

2007-08......0.......3.....14.....20.....18.......7.......0.....62...14.......6.....2

2006-07......0.......0.......6.....18.....24.....11.......4.....63...36.....18.....9

2005-06......0.......5.....20.....10.....18.....14.......0.....67...14.......9.....2

2004-05......0.......5.....15.....17.....20.....14.......0.....71...29.....18.....9

2003-04......0.......1.....17.....26.....21.....10.......3.....78...20.....26.....9

2002-03......0.......3.....18.....28.....21.....13.......3.....86...22.....31...12

2001-02......0.......0.......9.....11.....15.......9.......3.....47...12.......3.....2

2000-01......0.......6.....29.....23.....18.....13.......0.....89...22.....20...13

 

1999-00......0.......1.....10.....22.....18.......4.......1.....56...28.....18.....7

1998-99......0.......0.......8.....20.....13.....11.......0.....52...18.....13.....3

1997-98......0.......8.....10.....13.......9.......9.......0.....49.....4.......3.....2

1996-97......0.......8.......7.....25.....14.....12.......3.....69...14.....11.....3

1995-96......0.......8.....24.....24.....18.....15.......0.....89...15.....30.....9

1994-95......0.......3.....10.....19.....20.......5.......3.....60...14.....11.....5

1993-94......0.......3.....15.....29.....24.....13.......0.....84...26.....31.....5

1992-93......0.......5.....13.....21.....27.....14.......0.....80...22.......7.....3

1991-92......0.......2.....15.....19.....15.....16.......1.....68...14.......9.....2

1990-91......0.......2.....11.....20.....14.......6.......1.....54.....8.......7.....1

 

1989-90......0.......9.....31.....10.....15.......9.......0.....74...33.....19.....9

1988-89......1.......1.....19.....16.....21.....13.......0.....71...11.....19.....3

1987-88......0.......5.......9.....24.....23.....11.......0.....72...16.....19.....7

1986-87......0.......6.....10.....23.....23.....11.......1.....74...19.....11.....5

1985-86......0.......0.....23.....21.....21.......9.......0.....74...12.....19.....4

1984-85......0.......5.......6.....28.....18.....10.......2.....69...35.....18.....5

1983-84......0.......1.....17.....26.....10.....13.......0.....67...19.....29.....8

1982-83......0.......4.....10.....18.....14.......7.......0.....53...12.....13.....4

1981-82......0.......2.....15.....26.....20.......9.......5.....77...24.....20.....6

1980-81......0.......2.....24.....27.....14.....12.......0.....79...24.....30...11

 

1979-80......0.......1.....12.....22.....24.....10.......1.....70...31.....19.....5

1978-79......0.......3.....15.....20.....21.......8.......1.....68...22.....26...11

1977-78......0.......4.....15.....27.....27.....13.......1.....87...22.....42...12

1976-77......2.....11.....25.....31.....17.......7.......3.....96...51.....45.....9

1975-76......1.......0.....21.....30.....14.......8.......2.....76...26.....20.....3

1974-75......3.......7.....12.....16.....16.....15.......6.....75...17.......8.....2

1973-74......0.......2.....16.....20.....24.....12.......2.....76...15.....23.....3

1972-73......1.......7.......9.....17.....21.......3.......0.....57.....9.....13.....4

1971-72......0.......5.....12.....18.....23.....16.......4.....78...11.....17.....5

1970-71......0.......4.....21.....29.....12.....12.......0.....78...16.....25.....5

 

1969-70......2.......5.....24.....30.....21.....14.......1.....97...45.....27.....6

1968-69......0.......1.....22.....22.....21.....15.......1.....82...27.....18.....3

1967-68......0.......9.....14.....24.....26.....13.......1.....87...27.....22.....9

1966-67......0.......2.....22.....19.....25.....16.......3.....86...15.....25.....6

1965-66......1.......3.....10.....22.....21.....10.......0.....67...17.....14.....2

1964-65......0.......4.....18.....28.....19.......9.......1.....79...27.....22.....5

1963-64......0.......0.....22.....16.....25.......9.......3.....75...22.....18.....7

1962-63......0.......4.....22.....23.....25.......8.......0.....82...21.....29.....7

1961-62......0.......5.....20.....24.....22.......7.......0.....78...16.....16.....4

1960-61......0.......3.....26.....27.....14.......8.......0.....78...26.....27...16

 

1959-60......0.......6.....12.....24.....20.....26.......0.....88...20.....15.....3

1958-59......0.......3.....28.....24.....21.....17.......0.....93...23.....26...10

1957-58......0.......3.......9.....21.....22.......3.......1.....59...17.....20...12

1956-57......0.......7.....12.....26.....19.......9.......0.....73...12.....12.....6

1955-56......0.......8.....26.....25.....16.....17.......0.....92...19.....23.....4

1954-55......0.......1.....17.....28.....17.....14.......0.....77...33.....16.....4

1953-54......0.......1.......9.....26.....10.....13.......3.....62...16.....15.....4

1952-53......0.......2.....12.....19.....16.......9.......0.....58.....8.......2.....1

1951-52......0.....11.....19.....20.....19.....14.......0.....83...19.....13.....3

1950-51......0.......3.....19.....19.....17.......9.......0.....67...18.....12.....3

 

1949-50......0.......5.....16.....12.....21.....21.......8.....83...18.....12.....3

1948-49......0.......0.....14.....17.....16.....15.......0.....62.....9.......9.....4

1947-48......0.......4.....25.....29.....24.....13.......1.....96...26.....33...10

1946-47......0.......2.....16.....18.....26.....20.......0.....82...18.....12.....5

1945-46......0.......6.....24.....22.....24.......3.......0.....79...18.....24.....9

1944-45......0.......5.....23.....30.....22.......6.......0.....84...36.....25.....5

1943-44......0.......7.....22.....24.....23.....16.......4.....96...16.....17.....3

1942-43......0.......5.....24.....26.....20.....12.......9.....96...13.....29.....5

1941-42......0.......1.....14.....24.....25.......0.......0.....64...16.....19.....6

1940-41......2.......7.....17.....26.....25.....24.......0...101...14.....16.....4

 

1939-40......0.......6.....16.....28.....22.....23.......4.....99...20.....29.....6

1938-39......0.......6.....19.....21.....15.....17.......2.....80...17.....18.....4

1937-38......0.......4.....18.....24.....18.....11.......2.....77...15.....16.....4

1936-37......2.....13.....15.....14.....22.....19.......0.....85...12.....10.....2

1935-36......0.......3.....21.....23.....25.......7.......1.....80...31.....39...12

1934-35......0.......3.....21.....22.....21.....11.......1.....79...12.....24.....5

1933-34......2.....12.....16.....20.....28.....21.......0.....99...36.....38.....9

1932-33......0.......7.....13.....11.....20.....11.......0.....62...11.....13.....4

1931-32......0.......3.....17.......4.....17.....18.......1.....60...12.......5.....2

1930-31......0.......7.....18.....21.....20.......9.......0.....75...15.....12.....3

 

1929-30......0.......5.....18.....20.....18.....10.......2.....73...12.....25.....8

1928-29......1.......3.....14.....27.....19.......8.......0.....72...18.....15.....4

1927-28......0.......4.....17.....19.....20.....18.......1.....79...15.....20.....5

1926-27......0.......7.....28.....23.....16.....10.......0.....84...14.....24.....6

1925-26......3.......9.....19.....21.....25.....20.......5...102...11.....27.....4

1924-25......0.......9.....22.....30.....13.......7.......2.....83...32.....22.....2

1923-24......0.......3.....10.....24.....28.....16.......2.....83...29.....17.....4

1922-23......0.......9.....20.....28.....26.....20.......4...107...24.....31.....6

1921-22......0.......4.....23.....28.....19.....12.......1.....87...13.....23.....6

1920-21......0.......5.....19.....21.....21.......4.......1.....71.....9.....10.....2

 

1919-20......0.......6.....26.....30.....27.....16.......4...109...25.....40.....7

1918-19......0.......3.....16.....17.....19.......9.......4.....68...12.......7.....3

1917-18......1.......7.....29.....31.....19.....12.......2...101...44.....45...10

1916-17......0.......6.....21.....22.....25.....15.......2.....91...20.....26.....6

1915-16......0.......3.....25.....20.....27.....23.......1.....99...47.....37.....6

1914-15......0.......9.....26.....21.....16.....23.......2.....97...25.....23.....7

1913-14......0.......2.....14.....22.....25.....19.......5.....77...38.....26.....7

1912-13......0.......4.....14.....15.....22.......9.......0.....64...15.....16.....6

1911-12......0.......8.....11.....30.....25.....16.......2.....92...26.....39.....8

1910-11......0.......2.....28.....18.....25.....19.......3.....95...18.....31.....5

 

1909-10......0.......1.....22.....25.....24.....10.......0.....82...19.....26.....6

1908-09......0.......5.....17.....19.....13.....16.......2.....72...10.....11.....2

1907-08......0.......0.......9.....25.....26.....14.......3.....77...22.....18.....4

1906-07......0.......2.....21.....17.....25.....12.......3.....80...17.....28.....5

1905-06......0.......5.....15.....12.....17.....22.......1.....72...15.....10.....2

1904-05......0.......5.....28.....25.....27.....13.......0.....98...30.....40.....8

1903-04......0.....11.....24.....29.....28.....19.......6...117...28.....47.....5

1902-03......0.......0.....20.....23.....19.......4.......2.....68...13.....23.....6

1901-02......0.....10.....15.....29.....24.......6.......0.....84...32.....34.....6

1900-01......0.......3.....16.....22.....28.....14.......0.....83...32.....30.....6

 

1899-00......0.......2.....15.....24.....22.....26.......5.....94...21.....22.....8

1898-99......0.......7.....17.....23.....20.....14.......6.....87...21.....23.....9

1897-98......0.......5.....16.....16.....13.......4.......5.....59...15.....12.....3

1896-97......0.......2.....19.....22.....18.....12.......2.....75...15.....24.....8

1895-96......0.......3.....17.....26.....22.....24.......5.....97...19.....31.....7

1894-95......0.......9.....12.....26.....27.....25.......3...102...41.....35.....9

1893-94......0.......9.....24.....25.....22.......8.......4.....92...14.....16.....3

1892-93......0.......9.....17.....30.....26.....18.......0...100...38.....41...13

1891-92......0.......6.....10.....26.....18.....21.......2.....83...13.....21.....3

1890-91......0.......7.....26.....21.....16.....15.......6.....92...11.....23.....4..... 1 min in May

 

1889-90......1.......6.....11.....21.....15.....19.......3.....76...10.....15.....3

1888-89......0.......9.....21.....17.....26.....11.......0.....84...20.....15.....3

1887-88......2.......8.....20.....31.....24.....23.......4...110...45.....44.....7

1886-87......0.......7.....24.....26.....22.....28.......8...115...28.....33.....5

1885-86......0.......6.....23.....25.....21.....15.......1.....91...22.....29...10

1884-85......0.......5.....16.....25.....28.....25.......3...102...34.....38.....8

1883-84......0.......9.....23.....28.....21.....15.......1.....97...16.....35.....6

1882-83......0.....14.....24.....29.....26.....25.......3...121...32.....39.....6

1881-82......0.......7.....13.....22.....19.....15.......4.....80...13.....21.....5

1880-81......0.....13.....27.....31.....24.....15.......6...111...56.....52...15

 

1879-80......2.....10.....18.....14.....18.....20.......5.....87...11.....12.....2

1878-79......0.......4.....22.....30.....26.....15.......4...101...43.....35.....6

1877-78......0.......8.....18.....22.....19.......7.......0.....74...12.....21.....6

1876-77......1.......2.....29.....29.....12.....18.......2.....93...23.....41.....9

 

 

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Still too many posters not following directions in the Storm thread - read this !

STORM MODE : MEMBERS PLEASE READ

 

Members,

Due to the high activity with the pending event, AmericanWx is entering in what is called Storm mode. Additional temporary moderators are added and the normal warn and suspend protocols are removed. Moderators will now have the power to automatically remove your posts and or suspend you without warning. Moderators will create ONE thread that you may mix banter and weather in. KEEP ALL BANTER in this thread ONLY. Please see below the new policies/rules that are put into affect under Storm Mode:

1. Cross thread trolling will not be permitted on the weather side. If you are in a region other than your own with the sole purpose of starting trouble, you will be suspended without question.

2. Model threads will be cleared of unrelated discussion, empty "smiley posts", personal attacks, and analysis without any basis. Even the most basic and rudimentary analysis would be appreciated.

3. In model threads, repetitive questions such as “where is it going" "will it hit my house tomorrow at 11:04pm…..” etc will be deleted.

4. Please respect the professionals that post here. They will make forecasts as they are comfortable but continued pestering or badgering of them with "where is the storm going, how are the winds for..?" will result in the quickest exit from this board. We will not be tolerant of abusive or trolling behavior.

5. If you post a forecast, please have some sound reasoning behind it. IMBY forecasts also known as wishcasts will likely end up in OT or deleted.

6. DO NOT link threads that have nothing to do with weather or weather forecasting from any other board. Do not link threads from other boards that contain cross feuding or dealing with personal issues.

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You people were only supposed to get 10" this whole season. I don't wanna hear complaints about this storm.

On 12/11/2016 at 0:56 PM, Wxoutlooksblog said:

The pattern now depicted on virtually all of the maps is as bad as I've ever seen it at this time of year. Just terrible. I wish I could change my entries on the seasonal snowfall contests to single digits, 10" at best, for NYC. It really looks terrible and I have difficulty seeing how it changes, it's locked in. I'm looking forward to a wet spring.

WX/PT

 

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13 minutes ago, Breene said:

well for central park 6+ hasn't happened this late in like 20 years, wasn't really thinking about NW of the board though

well NYC is an urban area.  South shore of Nassau county got up to 8" in April 2003.

 

I actually like early April for snow more than I like March, funnily enough.

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Just now, Juliancolton said:

You people were only supposed to get 10" this whole season. I don't wanna hear complaints about this storm.

He didn't take into the account the new pattern of mild winters with one to two days of cold that are enough to get to average or above average snowfall totals.  Isotherm's prediction was better, he had the new mild snowy pattern nailed.

 

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6 hours ago, uncle W said:

March 2017 could be colder than than February...it would be the first time since 1984 that happened...before that was 1960...two very good 2017 analogs especially this month...1889-90 was one of the warmest winters of the 1800's but March was the coldest month with 17" of snowfall...March 1960 was the coldest month of that winter...only three years had the coldest month in March...1880, 1890, 1960...

It seems that March is usually the snowiest month in our less snowy winters- this was commonplace in the 50s when March was our snowiest month but winters were mild overall.

At the end of February I wondered with how warm it was how much of a chance March had to be colder than it.  I actually thought there was more of a chance of that happening than it being snowier than February- but now it looks like both might be possible- and February was a decent snow month with double digit totals for most of us, just like January, another above average month.

 

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The last few storms we had the northwest trend 72 hours prior to the storm. I think this storm corrects itself a bit northwest and takes just inside the benchmark track. 12-24 inches area wide. Long Island twin forks may mix in my opinion. This will be a dynamic and slow moving system. Central Park gets 16 inches with this storm.

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8 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

The last few storms we had the northwest trend 72 hours prior to the storm. I think this storm corrects itself a bit northwest and takes just inside the benchmark track. 12-24 inches area wide. Long Island twin forks may mix in my opinion. This will be a dynamic and slow moving system. Central Park gets 16 inches with this storm.

I am going out to the pub.....will drink 2 shots for you.

If the 0z runs are favorable.......u got something 

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