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Met Winter 2016-17 Banter


dmillz25

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21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

only .6 of an inch of snow since 12/16/16.   Possibly due to the lack of strong cutters this winter.  Detroit, Cleveland Indy essentially snowless this winter.

Portland, Maine is the big winner so far with +21.7" snowfall departure  through yesterday on the season.

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1 hour ago, Paragon said:

They'd better get that hole fixed and quickly.

I was hearing about how environmentalists warned them a decade ago that something like this could happen.

The Oroville Dam's spillway crisis is yet another example of decision makiers ignoring unfavorable information a.k.a. bad risk management. From The Mercury News:

More than a decade ago, federal and state officials and some of California’s largest water agencies rejected concerns that the massive earthen spillway at Oroville Dam — at risk of collapse Sunday night and prompting the evacuation of 185,000 people — could erode during heavy winter rains and cause a catastrophe.

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/02/12/oroville-dam-feds-and-state-officials-ignored-warnings-12-years-ago/

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The wild times continue out west.

 


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
524 AM PST Thu Feb 16 2017

The storm looks to be the strongest storm to hit Southwest
California this season. It is likely the strongest within the last
six years and possibly even as far back as December 2004 or
January 1995. Rainfall amounts between 2-6 inches for the coast
and valleys are expected with up to 5-10 inches for the south-
facing foothills and coastal mountain slopes. As a result of the
heavy rain and antecedent moist soil conditions, a flash flood
watch remains in effect for Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los
Angeles Counties from Friday morning through Saturday morning.

Funny you posted this. I am out in LA through Saturday for a friends wedding. I was just reading this and debating if I should even say anything to my buddy. The wedding is tomorrow. 

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19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

1st couple of weeks of March look promising.  Let's hope it holds.  I like the big -EPO shown on the GFS

Pretty much everyone is on board with this and it would also fit the seasonal pattern.  Note: Jan 8, Feb 9 dates of previous big snows this season, so maybe Mar 10?  (although it should be Mar 13 based on the gap between dates- fitting to have a big storm to end the pattern; and I think we get a moderate one at the beginning or in the middle of the pattern, this pattern should be good enough for more than one snow or ice storm.

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3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

only .6 of an inch of snow since 12/16/16.   Possibly due to the lack of strong cutters this winter.  Detroit, Cleveland Indy essentially snowless this winter.

Not a normal La Nina pattern.  In the midwest they usually love La Ninas and hate El Ninos

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31 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Pretty much everyone is on board with this and it would also fit the seasonal pattern.  Note: Jan 8, Feb 9 dates of previous big snows this season, so maybe Mar 10?  (although it should be Mar 13 based on the gap between dates- fitting to have a big storm to end the pattern; and I think we get a moderate one at the beginning or in the middle of the pattern, this pattern should be good enough for more than one snow or ice storm.

I have a business trip early March to FLL. Flying home on the 8th. Let's hope it arrives once I'm back home!

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2 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Speaking of the EURO teleconnection projections, everything seems to come together by April Fool's Day----no fooling!   Throw in an El Chichon Volcano type event and we are all set for an April 06, 1982 like blizzard.     LOL

In all seriousness world wide we are due for a major volcanic eruption. The last one large enough to have global climactic impact was pinitubo back in the 90s. Something even larger would give us a nice cool down from the current global warming induced furnace 

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I believe that if Feb. is at least +2.8degs., this winter will make the Top Ten --- what again?    We seem destined to finish at >+4degs. right now, so In Like Flint are we.

PS. March will have a better chance to be the coldest month than March 1960 had.  With all our months finishing near 38deg., this March needs about >-5deg. or so, not the -10deg. of March 1960

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Congrats ABE..

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=PA&prodtype=discussion#AFDPHI

 

Detailing ACY ABE and ILG for February as per PHL data process
input.
ABE projects 7th warmest with a 36.1 average, or 5.4 degrees
above the norm of 30.7. ABE has less room to give on the down
side.
Winter (DJF)
ABE seasonal average temp projects 34.9 or #6 in the POR back
to the winter 1922-23. 0.7 to give to drop out of top 10 so #6
looks pretty solid.
For ABE: 23 consecutive months of above normal temps through
February of this year with last below normal period, again JFM
2015!

 

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2 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Kevin martin start a new website?

Contact Us – Southern California Weather Force.com

NOTE:  Strong filter is on.  Any profanity used will be sent straight to the trash and no one here will read it.
This is being sent to THE SERVER TECH – Not The Weather Center.  Kevin Martin will not answer questions in this LINK.  Use this for inquiring about membership and/or other interests you may have.  The server tech will respond accordingly.

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8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Contact Us – Southern California Weather Force.com

NOTE:  Strong filter is on.  Any profanity used will be sent straight to the trash and no one here will read it.
This is being sent to THE SERVER TECH – Not The Weather Center.  Kevin Martin will not answer questions in this LINK.  Use this for inquiring about membership and/or other interests you may have.  The server tech will respond accordingly.

Ugh.

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I see the "eye" of Lucifer and I'm quite disappointed.  I expected to see a 666 there instead....... ;)

All kidding aside, didn't a hurricane make landfall near San Diego back in 1858 or somewhere around there?

Also, who named this thing Lucifer?

According to TWC (who didn't name it) it's the strongest storm to hit So Cal in over 20 years.

 

 

 

 

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Jamstec ENSO update. Not very comforting in the long term.

 

Quote

Feb. 18, 2017 
Prediction from 1st Feb., 2017

ENSO forecast:
The SINTEX-F now clearly predicts an El Niño event from this coming summer. This may suggest a decadal turnabout in the tropical Pacific climate condition to El Niño-like state after a long spell of La Niña-like state. If this happens, such natural climate variability may double the global warming impact as we observed during the period from 1976 through 1998.

 

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14 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

WTF?

 

FB_IMG_1487389210354.jpg

I'm out in LA and the storm was like a typical nor easter. We didn't have any issues being right in the center of the city. I did see a couple trees down. Probably the most interesting aspect was watching locals mesmerized by seeing heavy rain. It was like people in Miami seeing snow for the first time. 

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I'm out in LA and the storm was like a typical nor easter. We didn't have any issues being right in the center of the city. I did see a couple trees down. Probably the most interesting aspect was watching locals mesmerized by seeing heavy rain. It was like people in Miami seeing snow for the first time. 



I believe they had 2" at the airport so nothing crazy

Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk

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