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WxWatcher007

Winter 2016-17 Digital Snow Thread

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It's that time of the year again, folks! May the models be infallible if they show long range snow and all our dreams come true :lol: 

Let us begin with our first threat--from the 00z GFS on Oct 29th at hr 372. Plenty of time to adjust accumulation forecasts upward. 

00z GFS 10:29.png

 

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On 11/4/2016 at 5:06 PM, Bob Chill said:

The new para euro (going op later this month) blows up a storm d9 after a strong cold front. LOL. Plenty of time for a west shift. 

 

 

paranormaleuro.JPG

 

Still time to trend colder. Meanwhile 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_48.png

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20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sorry guys.

I know the larger ranges suck down there.

The season can either suck like 2007-08 or 1983-84, or we can get some well timed flexes of the pattern, as in 2010.

I'd bet on no, though....regression.

 

Good discussion, though yeah around here a 5-15" range is the difference between sucky and not half bad!!  Perhaps seemingly not quite as bad for your forecast at BWI (though the same range).  We definitely have to just hope for one good period or one good storm in these parts, and that makes the season most of the time.  Took me many years to get "used" to that fact.  Where I'm from in northeast OH, a 10" forecast range wouldn't seem nearly as dire of a difference!

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16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

For the record, I guess this weekend goes down as the first Euro fail (med range snow forecast).

It was way too complicated of a setup to get excited down here. Especially this early in the season.  As soon as I saw nearly zero ensemble support I figured it was likely a no-go. No much of a surprise to see it vanish. No biggie. 

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14 minutes ago, yoda said:

This would have our forum split badly (Dec 14th storm)

Wes enjoys pouring rain while our I-81 contingent enjoys a heavy wet plastering of snow

 

gfs_6hr_snow_acc_washdc_57.png

Finally found it--an example of where I'd be perfectly fine punting a warning level event to save myself misery. Let's will that bad boy SE!

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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

99% sure I'd post in the PA forum if that happened.... for fear of being pitchforked to death by everyone else here. 

Nah... we would want you to post pics first... then pitchfork you ;)

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