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10-27 First flakes OBS


UlsterCountySnowZ

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22 hours ago, forkyfork said:

if you live anywhere within the metro area expect a cold rain from start to finish. temps are ~40 on the gfs when precip starts. lol

Temps have tended colder on last nights gfs run. Not saying it snows on the coast but a brief mix to rain not out of the question 

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IMO unless you are in Northern Rockland county on northward, this is a cold rain from start to finish. I can see areas from Northern Rockland, orange and SullivanCounty pick up a nice 1-4 inches. Depending on elevation and evaporational cooling of course.

NYC metro on south will have to wait until deep into November to see any appreciable snow fall threats if not later, while the pattern transitions to troughiness in the east and Ridging in the west

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11 minutes ago, REDMK6GLI said:

IMO unless you are in Northern Rockland county on northward, this is a cold rain from start to finish. I can see areas from Northern Rockland, orange and SullivanCounty pick up a nice 1-4 inches. Depending on elevation and evaporational cooling of course.

NYC metro on south will have to wait until deep into November to see any appreciable snow fall threats if not later, while the pattern transitions to troughiness in the east and Ridging in the west

Even up here its gonna be elevation driven. Anyone under 500' will prob only see wet flakes with maybe a coating. You are gonna have to go above 1000' to see any legit accumulation (1-3"). As for MBY im expecting 1" the most.

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30 minutes ago, REDMK6GLI said:

IMO unless you are in Northern Rockland county on northward, this is a cold rain from start to finish. I can see areas from Northern Rockland, orange and SullivanCounty pick up a nice 1-4 inches. Depending on elevation and evaporational cooling of course.

NYC metro on south will have to wait until deep into November to see any appreciable snow fall threats if not later, while the pattern transitions to troughiness in the east and Ridging in the west

Rockland is NYC metro. ;)

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13 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the models are slowing down the start time which doesn't bode well for the snow hopers 

Nope it does not. However, atleast now on some of the longer range forecast models we are seeing a more significant change to a more conducive pattern for snow as we head deeper into November. This includes IMMEDIATE NYC METRO as well. 

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2 hours ago, REDMK6GLI said:

IMO unless you are in Northern Rockland county on northward, this is a cold rain from start to finish. I can see areas from Northern Rockland, orange and SullivanCounty pick up a nice 1-4 inches. Depending on elevation and evaporational cooling of course.

NYC metro on south will have to wait until deep into November to see any appreciable snow fall threats if not later, while the pattern transitions to troughiness in the east and Ridging in the west

Even northern Rockland county is not seeing 1-4 inches. Maybe 1-4 flakes lol

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GFS/Nam still jackpot parts of Sullivan with 3-6", 84 northward a general 1-2"... I still highly doubt actual accumulation unless 800+ft elevation, for my neck of the woods, I'm expecting white rain, maybe a grassy dusting to an inch, if precip can move in fast and hang on longer... WAA snows usually come in faster than modeled, with better intensity, regardless it's all getting washed away by noon, but I'd take it after last winter

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