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November 2016 Pattern Discussion


dmillz25

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2 hours ago, packbacker said:

Wonder if we just end up seeing a typical weak -ENSO/+QBO pattern setup as the predominate pattern.  So far no sign of a displaced GOA ridge...so far (knock on wood).

I think most here would take that pattern...

 

UNADJUSTEDNONRAW_thumb_2652.jpg

Yep. Looks like the +QBO; La Niña forcing is taking over with that poleward aleutian ridge that Isotherm and HM wrote about

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21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep. Looks like the +QBO; La Niña forcing is taking over with that poleward aleutian ridge that Isotherm and HM wrote about

Also....not surprising when you look at just the strong ninas with +QBO the SER is more evident.  Why I peeled these out of my plot above.  Hoping for a dying Nina or even if it just stays the same.  Weaker the Nino seems to reduce the chance at SER with +QBO...which seems to be due to some form of Greenland block.

 

IMG_3193.PNG

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2 hours ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

November will end up averaging about the same it has been over the last 10 or 12 years.

While we had a few colder than normal Novembers in the mix, the big story has been the historic November warmth during the 2000's.

LGA November warmth rankings

#1...2001

#2...2006

#3...2015

#6...2016 so far

#7...2011

#8...2009

#11.2005

#12.2003

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36 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

18z GFS is a deluge for the areas upcoming rainfall, looks to be widespread 1.75"-3.00" with a few pockets of 4.00" amounts. This is going to be much needed and welcomed rain which will put a good dent into the drought and hopefully the start of a much more active pattern just in time for winter.

The Euro is also widespread 2+ from the two events with near record PWAT's for late November and elevated convective enhancement.

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24 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Yeah I see mosquitoes from time to time as well here in bed stuy

I've pretty much resigned to the fact that you're always going to get bit by something in this city. If it's not a bedbug, flea, mosquito, or rat, some nut on the subway will gladly take their place!

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