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November Med/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr

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20 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Even December 25th? What is it? You hate winter or something? If you hate winter then you hate us all. We have no room in our lives for haters.

You are a traitor to the cause!

giphy.gif

I'd accept it if it were to happen. Rather that than 40 and rain on Christmas!

Bring the hate!

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Don't see a vendor thread so I will just post this in here.

Larry Cosgrove released his outlook for winter 2016-2017 and its not good if you like cold and snow although confidence levels are not particularly high. He is also going with a very warm December which seems to contradict most outlooks.

https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en-US#!topic/weatheramerica/PeySp4BFjEA

https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en-US#!topic/weatheramerica/bBiWzmLaLSA

https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en-US#!topic/weatheramerica/gbv3LItS4Yo

https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en-US#!topic/weatheramerica/udrthzDZ-Dw

 

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Cosgrove uses 1995 2x weighted in his outlook.  That is pretty telling.  Point is, 1995 in the means wasn't a particularly cold winter in a lot of places.  In the mid atlantic...conditions were a lot like they have been recently...where you get 48 hour + intrusion of cold air, followed by a big backside warm up.  Thanksgiving weekend was a great example of this, it started very cold and ended mild.  As the season progressed, the cold intrusions lasted a little bit longer / stronger and there were plenty of backside warmups.  It's remembered as a benchmark winter mainly because when it got cold it was very cold, and seemingly almost always timed with an accumulating snow storm particularly in January / February.  

For this analog to have any continued validity for me November needs to get cold in the means at some point.  IIRC, there was a pretty big flip after the first week or so of November 1995 after which time departures were biased towards cold despite the warmups on the backside of every cold air push.  If November 2016 looks anything like October 2016 we might need to toss.  So, in that respect I think the next couple weeks are pretty critical.

I do wonder how many of us in the forum have first hand knowledge of the 95-96 winter...obviously many do, but as it has been 21 years I have to assume there are plenty who don't due to age, or were simply living outside of the Mid-Atlantic at the time.

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1 hour ago, RIC_WX said:

Cosgrove uses 1995 2x weighted in his outlook.  That is pretty telling.  Point is, 1995 in the means wasn't a particularly cold winter in a lot of places.  In the mid atlantic...conditions were a lot like they have been recently...where you get 48 hour + intrusion of cold air, followed by a big backside warm up.  Thanksgiving weekend was a great example of this, it started very cold and ended mild.  As the season progressed, the cold intrusions lasted a little bit longer / stronger and there were plenty of backside warmups.  It's remembered as a benchmark winter mainly because when it got cold it was very cold, and seemingly almost always timed with an accumulating snow storm particularly in January / February.  

For this analog to have any continued validity for me November needs to get cold in the means at some point.  IIRC, there was a pretty big flip after the first week or so of November 1995 after which time departures were biased towards cold despite the warmups on the backside of every cold air push.  If November 2016 looks anything like October 2016 we might need to toss.  So, in that respect I think the next couple weeks are pretty critical.

I do wonder how many of us in the forum have first hand knowledge of the 95-96 winter...obviously many do, but as it has been 21 years I have to assume there are plenty who don't due to age, or were simply living outside of the Mid-Atlantic at the time.

It was cold at the end of October in 1995.  On Halloween weekend there was widespread snow from Kentucky, Indiana, on through WV and much of Virginia.  I don't remember 95-96 ever having too many extended warm periods, or dry periods.  Helluva winter and cold way up into spring.

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11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It was cold at the end of October in 1995.  On Halloween weekend there was widespread snow from Kentucky, Indiana, on through WV and much of Virginia.  I don't remember 95-96 ever having too many extended warm periods, or dry periods.  Helluva winter and cold way up into spring.

Pretty sure for most Mid Atlantic reporting stations, October 1995 was biased warm and November cold.  The averages today are higher, and the departures in October 2016 higher still from present averages, so pretty sure October 2016 was in fact warmer in absolute terms.  As for "extended warm periods", that wasn't the point.  They were not extended, but potent.  All of that January blizzard melted pretty suddenly a week later and caused flooding.  This is representative of the swings we are seeing in the pattern now, which again as the season progresses could continue and in fact become more potent on the cold side assuming the analog has any validity.  If November averages warm, it's an indication this particular analog probably deserves less weight.

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Either a coincidence or connection, the pattern showing up on the ens towards mid novie are very nino'ish and not looking much at all like a nina. Enso influence won't really show its potential until December but for right now I question the early part of winter behaving like a traditional nina. 

On another note...after pretty much crashing into negative territory, the +PDO has been making a comeback all month. 

 

anomnight.10.31.2016.gif

 

If the persistent trough in the GOA retros to a classic aleutian low/-epo ridge like the GEFS has been showing then the move towards a +PDO will continue through Nov

gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_12.png

 

 

The shift to a nina has done nothing but under perform all summer/fall. IMHO- I think there is more risk of a nino hangover type of pattern during the first part of met winter than anything. Just a guess.

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2 hours ago, RIC_WX said:

Pretty sure for most Mid Atlantic reporting stations, October 1995 was biased warm and November cold.  The averages today are higher, and the departures in October 2016 higher still from present averages, so pretty sure October 2016 was in fact warmer in absolute terms.  As for "extended warm periods", that wasn't the point.  They were not extended, but potent.  All of that January blizzard melted pretty suddenly a week later and caused flooding.  This is representative of the swings we are seeing in the pattern now, which again as the season progresses could continue and in fact become more potent on the cold side assuming the analog has any validity.  If November averages warm, it's an indication this particular analog probably deserves less weight.

I'm sure there is data available.  According to the data that I took a quick look at, November was about -5 here, December -2, January -2, Feb -4, etc.

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Either a coincidence or connection, the pattern showing up on the ens towards mid novie are very nino'ish and not looking much at all like a nina. Enso influence won't really show its potential until December but for right now I question the early part of winter behaving like a traditional nina. 

 

It really does have that look, and it has been pretty consistently advertised for a while now on the CFS weeklies and GEFS.

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17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I'm sure there is data available.  According to the data that I took a quick look at, November was about -5 here, December -2, January -2, Feb -4, etc.

If you averaged data from multiple stations in the coastal plain, I think it would be a little less pronounced.  Then again, if we could match absolute temperatures from 1995 vs. present day warmer averages, it would probably look more striking.  Either way, the oscillating pattern we are in every few days is I think typical for seasons without a strong enso signal.  Without persistent blocking I would expect the stronger the cold air mass, the more quickly the backside moderation on the return flow.  Again, how this develops in November is telling if the 1995 analog has validity or not, which was the point of my comments, and noting that despite Cosgrove's overall warm look he was still giving disproportionate weight to this season and it could be correct...or not if the blocking never develops.

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33 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It really does have that look, and it has been pretty consistently advertised for a while now on the CFS weeklies and GEFS.

Yea, you wouldn't expect the pac to have that look. Maybe Nov isn't unusual but if that was Dec it would definitely not indicate a nina in control. 

95-96 is on the d11+ analog list along with a few other weak nina's but there are some notable mod/strong nino's showing up. Wierd.

 

500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, you wouldn't expect the pac to have that look. Maybe Nov isn't unusual but if that was Dec it would definitely not indicate a nina in control. 

95-96 is on the d11+ analog list along with a few other weak nina's but there are some notable mod/strong nino's showing up. Wierd.

 

500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

 

 

Interesting.

2009 heh.

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32 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

If you averaged data from multiple stations in the coastal plain, I think it would be a little less pronounced.  Then again, if we could match absolute temperatures from 1995 vs. present day warmer averages, it would probably look more striking.  Either way, the oscillating pattern we are in every few days is I think typical for seasons without a strong enso signal.  Without persistent blocking I would expect the stronger the cold air mass, the more quickly the backside moderation on the return flow.  Again, how this develops in November is telling if the 1995 analog has validity or not, which was the point of my comments, and noting that despite Cosgrove's overall warm look he was still giving disproportionate weight to this season and it could be correct...or not if the blocking never develops.

I don't think 13-14 or 14-15 had strong enso signals with both hovering around the plus/minus 0.5 area, but both were pretty consistently cold IIRC.

I think fall and spring lend themselves to oscillation more than winter and summer do.

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32 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

2002.

 

But.......2008 as well.

That 1974 date was a few days prior to one of my favorite storms growing up.  I know Mitchnick recalls it.  A real stemwinder and the first time I saw thunder snow (in western Maryland.). Really dynamic system with huge precip totals accompanied by plummeting temps.  Ended up with 18"+ in the high elevations.  3" rain totals in the metros, iirc.

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19 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Either a coincidence or connection, the pattern showing up on the ens towards mid novie are very nino'ish and not looking much at all like a nina. Enso influence won't really show its potential until December but for right now I question the early part of winter behaving like a traditional nina. 

On another note...after pretty much crashing into negative territory, the +PDO has been making a comeback all month.

If the persistent trough in the GOA retros to a classic aleutian low/-epo ridge like the GEFS has been showing then the move towards a +PDO will continue through Nov

The shift to a nina has done nothing but under perform all summer/fall. IMHO- I think there is more risk of a nino hangover type of pattern during the first part of met winter than anything. Just a guess.

one way we could get a total fail winter is if we start off with a nino hangover negating what is usually a decent December nina climio then mid winter the nina asserts itself, then fades late before we can get the typical March nina threat. 

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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

one way we could get a total fail winter is if we start off with a nino hangover negating what is usually a decent December nina climio then mid winter the nina asserts itself, then fades late before we can get the typical March nina threat. 

I'm not fearful of that at all, as I don't see any reason right now why this Nina would have it in her to assert herself.

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2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

Some of the long range mets I follow on twitter are becoming more bullish about the pattern flip to cold/colder third week or so of November being legit possibility.

There does appear to be a pattern flip mid-late November. However, the source regions of Canada are very warm and it may take time for "cold" to actually build and deliver here. Most likely cool but not cold. Baby steps....

gfs-ens_T2ma_us_65.png

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

one way we could get a total fail winter is if we start off with a nino hangover negating what is usually a decent December nina climio then mid winter the nina asserts itself, then fades late before we can get the typical March nina threat. 

Going super simple...2 really easy ways to fail:

1. Simply missing out on some good setups when they are there and ending 50-75% of climo with the cliche "we could have had a good season if..."

2. Despite generally favorable blocking the cold is locked over on the other side of the pole or the Pac sucks and we never get temps right regardless of storm chances (00-01 & 12-13 are prime examples)

 

I'm rather indifferent this year but more bearish than anything else. If we get blasted then great. If we stink it up then it shouldn't surprise anyone. We are the MA after all and we've been on a bit of an historic heater the last 3 years. 

 

 

 

 

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37 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said:

There does appear to be a pattern flip mid-late November. However, the source regions of Canada are very warm and it may take time for "cold" to actually build and deliver here. Most likely cool but not cold. Baby steps....

gfs-ens_T2ma_us_65.png

click on the loop feature and you can see that the east coast is in a uniquely cold location relative to other areas of North America

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=namer&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2016110106&fh=372&xpos=0&ypos=288

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14 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

click on the loop feature and you can see that the east coast is in a uniquely cold location relative to other areas of North America

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=namer&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2016110106&fh=372&xpos=0&ypos=288

 

The d10-15 period seems to be the precursor of what could potentially be cross polar flow down the line. With the big if being the ridge in the west continues to retro then cold air would have no problem building in central canada and hp over the pole could potentially draw from siberia. Total speculation on how we "could" extensive cold into the conus towards the end of the month. OTOH- if the upper MW and all of Canada build some snowcover late month then that is always a good thing down the line. 

Nov isn't important for us near the cities though. We have to root for favorable in early Dec and that's so far out there that I have no opinions. 

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