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Novie is near, the first un-official month of SNE winter!


Typhoon Tip

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nice, you must miss those miller As that have been scarce over the past several winters then. I sure as heck do up here. 

Lol yeah I do. Man we get nailed when those lows track through the Gulf and up the east coast. Our biggest issue is that the Nao helps us a lot and that's been missing the last several winters. We also do well in NW flow snows. That's really where we get the majority of our snowfall from.

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Thinking it may be longer?

I'm thinking Pacific needs more respect. I'm not sold exactly on what the weeklies or earlier ensembles have. I'm not saying torch, but I think some expect winter to come after next week. Lets pump the brakes and enjoy a step down process. We shall see. The thing about November is that you can easily have well timed events, so an ensemble mean doesn't always catch these features. Look what just happened a few days ago. Also.....climo. November is not a wintry month. Maybe some in NE CT need to be reminded that.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm thinking Pacific needs more respect. I'm not sold exactly on what the weeklies or earlier ensembles have. I'm not saying torch, but I think some expect winter to come after next week. Lets pump the brakes and enjoy a step down process. We shall see. The thing about November is that you can easily have well timed events, so an ensemble mean doesn't always catch these features. Look what just happened a few days ago. Also.....climo. November is not a wintry month. Maybe some in NE CT need to be reminded that.

I definitely agree. It's a bit premature to expect winter to begin in 2 weeks.

a continued stepdown with possible chances towards the end of the month is more realistic.  

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who was expecting winter to set in? All anyone should think about is a better than avg chance of white Tgiving 

People such as yourself who start touting white thanksgiving and what not, start to confuse others should it not happen. That's all. I'm not sold on the ridge bridge weeklies have from the west coast to Greenland. However, it would not surprise me that we live in our own little corner with some shots of colder weather. That's when you can have well timed events. All I am saying, is that don't be shocked if things get pushed back a bit. Nothing more, nothing less. I've felt this way for a little while. I see no reason why it should cause panic or somehow be a hint at winter. It's unfortunate I have to even make that disclaimer, but you know some will always go that route.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

But it def looks colder with an Aleutian low. 

The buzz about a sudden pattern shift around mid month is premature. The irony is, if we look much closer in time (days 4-7) an Aluetian Low takes shape --as you pointed out-- and the UL long wave features and teleconnections look quite favorable for BN and active in the NE. Beyond that, though, the LR shows the AL breaking down and reverting to a more zonal, PAC influenced pattern. 

Anyone wanting early season snowfall in New England should be looking at the period from days 4-7 and forget about mid month until the former has passed.

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I will say if you can get some higher heights out west, you can work with Novie wavelengths and get an early season interior event for sure. You don't need massive +PNA or -EPO. The shorter lengths still can do it.  

 

My earlier point was based on recent trends comparing forecasts in the Pacific. I'd probably slow any larger changes down just a bit. We've seen it before. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I will say if you can get some higher heights out west, you can work with Novie wavelengths and get an early season interior event for sure. You don't need massive +PNA or -EPO. The shorter lengths still can do it.  

 

My earlier point was based on recent trends comparing forecasts in the Pacific. I'd probably slow any larger changes down just a bit. We've seen it before. 

Not uncommon at all for ensembles to rush a larger scale change. I remember we saw this in 2010. Ensembles at first were showing much colder pattern around 11/20 but we said it was probably rushed and to wait until probably after Tday. Turned out correct as we didn't get the sustained cold until early December. (And the snow didn't come for quite some time after that)

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This is one of the more polarizing examples I can recall over recent years where the GEFs entire family of contributory ensembles feeding into the derivatives at both CDC and CPC, are out of sync with the operational model. 

I mentioned this at the start of this tread ... that was the case (more at less), but as of last night?  wow. - the ensemble mean would bring winter in abruptly by the 10th of the month incoming; yet the operational is completely off into a different galaxy, with broken wave lengths and troubles with even a conherent long wave pattern anywhere on our side of the hemisphere - including the Pacific ocean. 

Recommend the weighter more consistent ensemble mean .. with perhaps less emphasis on magnitude:  not sure I buy an ~ (-1 AO; -2 NAO; +3 PNA) tandem system of teleconnectors and the implication of what that "could" mean out right.  If taken verbatim, that's probably a deep snow pack before thanks giving. These agencies have not only been hammering for some time, but they go out two weeks ... getting heftier in cold signal the whole way... Heh - we'll see.  I figure we are one recurving west Pac forcing event from this igniting a hemispheric nuclear winter.   

I'm amazed though that the operational versions from 00z got even MORE polarized and the ensemble means was even MORE in their regards ... really other ends of the pool.  

Watch, the dead split average verifies which could not be more dullard and banally average/ no events ...no snow...seasonal excuse to formulate another hobby.  Nothings impossible...

Barring cabin fever weather ... I still have seen one or two cycles of operational runs (respectively) go more cold and +PNAP -like, while the means don't waver.  Fwiw - the consistency is tugging in favor of the cold teleconnectors here.  

GEFs still = 10th ...  Will noted the other day the Euro mean may be closer to the 20th or something... Either way, even though I'm willing to tone down the teleconnector implication some, I'd be surprised if this Novie end the way it's destined to begin.   Note, the PNA is so strongly positive enough to 'pull' the EPO index down (they are negatively correlated over the longer climate mode).  That means we may not even need the -EPO to tap the cold sap here if that continues.  Also, PNA's tend to lead -EPOs due to typical wave migration/R-waves.  Lots to consider... but weather it looks so out of doors now or not, there's a wild storm in the 'signals' - interesting.. 

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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

meh, 40s for trick or treat time. Like most Halloweens.

I think the exciting part is that it is actually feeling like a normal late fall and start of winter. Cold, or at least chilly, Halloween.  Cool rainy days, an early bit of snow, lots of frosts and the occassional freeze, and long range signs of a turn to winter sometime in November.  We deserve a snowy November-December couplet and maybe we get that this year.  After the late, short (although sometimes exciting) winters recently, I am ready for a more spread out, perhaps NNE CNE type of winter.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not uncommon at all for ensembles to rush a larger scale change. I remember we saw this in 2010. Ensembles at first were showing much colder pattern around 11/20 but we said it was probably rushed and to wait until probably after Tday. Turned out correct as we didn't get the sustained cold until early December. (And the snow didn't come for quite some time after that)

I remember moving into my first house in 2004 and we had a nice 1-2" snowfall around the first week of Nov.

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