codfishsnowman Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 I thought we were having a heatwave this weekend??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: CFS is run daily. Today's have cooled December to normal with above normal qpf. I still don't get the use of a climate model running daily...or is the idea that maybe performance is improved to run it like a moving 5-day ensemble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I still don't get the use of a climate model running daily...or is the idea that maybe performance is improved to run it like a moving 5-day ensemble? It's run 4 times a day from what I can tell. Seems like a waste of bandwidth to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 41 minutes ago, weathafella said: Winter typically more reliably sets in after mid December. Those few early December big events in history skew everyone's brain. yeppers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Wouldn't shock me of a few areas got 2-3"+ in a short time later today along low track. Just has that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Wouldn't shock me of a few areas got 2-3"+ in a short time later today along low track. Just has that look. Kev says Meh which usually means get out the rain gear and buckets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Wouldn't shock me of a few areas got 2-3"+ in a short time later today along low track. Just has that look. Congrats Ginx -TAN BOS again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Congrats Ginx -TAN BOS again. New Euro for Sun Monday is basically a repeat of the late October snow only colder. That is an interesting setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: New Euro for Sun Monday is basically a repeat of the late October snow only colder. That is an interesting setup I agree and am watching with interest. GFS same general idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: New Euro for Sun Monday is basically a repeat of the late October snow only colder. That is an interesting setup Yeah gotta be a decent chance for at least upslope snows given that overall set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 12 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah gotta be a decent chance for at least upslope snows given that overall set up. Welcome back, we thought we lost you to Canada. Yes you have to be encouraged starting next week for the ski area to gain some ground lost. All of the USA should see gains now, its coming, you guys are usually 2-3 weeks head of me and that appears to be the case. Climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 16 hours ago, dendrite said: I'd argue 25F and calm requires similar energy to heat as 35F and a strong wind. A home sorta has a layer of "body heat" like a human with a wind chill effect. Years ago I read somewhere that one could wind-adjust heating needs by adding wind mph as a percent to measured HDDs - a day with mean temp of 15 would need energy for 50 HDDs in calm, and 60 if the wind was 20 mph. I doubt there was much if any actual quantitative study behind the comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 15, 2016 Author Share Posted November 15, 2016 heh...these negative tilt deep layer troughs tend to error west of guidance qpf ...i think we can see that happening as heavy action with embedded convection even is punching west of previous guidance through the Hudson Valley .. while we have lighter showers under a 7,000 foot high warm front over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Congrats Ginx -TAN BOS again. CT soaker. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: heh...these negative tilt deep layer troughs tend to error west of guidance qpf ...i think we can see that happening as heavy action with embedded convection even is punching west of previous guidance through the Hudson Valley .. while we have lighter showers under a 7,000 foot high warm front over us. They'll be a second jack somewhere in eastern ma from low level forcing too. That area near Hudson was shown from hi res too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: heh...these negative tilt deep layer troughs tend to error west of guidance qpf ...i think we can see that happening as heavy action with embedded convection even is punching west of previous guidance through the Hudson Valley .. while we have lighter showers under a 7,000 foot high warm front over us. Yup Dxr to HRV to Berks jack and E Mass while screwed again between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup Dxr to HRV to Berks jack and E Mass while screwed again between Didnt a lot of Central/Eastern Conn get soaked recently by a system that ended up pushing heavy rains West of guidance. You may have got fringed, but that area in East Central Conn has done pretty well recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Didnt a lot of Central/Eastern Conn get soaked recently by a system that ended up pushing heavy rains West of guidance. You may have got fringed, but that area in East Central Conn has done pretty well recently That storm was E CT sweet spot up thru ORH and SE NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Absolutely pouring here...we need it so let her rip!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Thanksgiving soaker SNE, good snow NNE on the GFS. Plenty of time to trend it to a Torchgiving storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 most of heavy rain isn nj and ny wont get that much in ct no soaker helper for ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Welcome back, we thought we lost you to Canada. Yes you have to be encouraged starting next week for the ski area to gain some ground lost. All of the USA should see gains now, its coming, you guys are usually 2-3 weeks head of me and that appears to be the case. Climo Haha I didn't go anywhere? Just a boring November so far...zzzzzz was the right call. Hopefully it's time to wake up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Something to keep in minf perhaps going forward. The GFS 1 sigma bias for the NAO. Too neggy. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.ensm.diff.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Thanksgiving deal looks good for the ski resorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Thanksgiving deal looks good for the ski resorts Killington prays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 When will heavy rain get into CT today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 We'll take whatever comes tonight, whether 1/2" or 2". I was quite surprised at how dry the woods were as I hunted last Fri-Sat, given the 3-storm total of 6" rain Oct. 21-Nov 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: When will heavy rain get into CT today? .42 here at work so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Thanksgiving soaker SNE, good snow NNE on the GFS. Plenty of time to trend it to a Torchgiving storm. lol. Need to trademark that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 47 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: .42 here at work so far Looks like BDL is around the same amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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