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Record -AO October Reverses In November


bluewave

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35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This October is turning out to be the 12th since 1950 with a monthly AO of -1.000 or lower. I compiled a a list of important statistics from those winters.

 

ao.sprd2.jpg

 

 

8 out of 11 years with near or above normal seasonal snowfall for Central Park and Brookhaven National Lab 

9 out of 11  December- March periods with at least one month of the AO averaging -1.000 or lower

9 out of 11 December-March periods with at least on month of the EPO averaging -0.50 or lower

 

Individual years below with October AO...D-M lowest monthly AO...lowest D-M monthly EPO...NYC snowfall...BNL snowfall

 

Oct 2014...-1.134....+0.413...-1.34...50.3...62.2

Oct 2012...-1.514....-3.185...-0.81...26.1...50.8

Oct 2009...-1.540...-4.266...-2.15...51.4...67.8

Oct 2006...-1.029...-1.307...-0.03...12.4...9.5

Oct 2002...-1.489...-1.592...-1.13...49.3...62.1

Oct 1981...-1.167...-1.216...-0.58...24.6...32.1

Oct 1979...-1.243...-2.066...-0.72...12.8...11.0

Oct 1974...-1.024...+0.194..+0.51...13.1...17.3

Oct 1968...-1.013...-3.114...-0.81...30.2...31.4

Oct 1966...-1.077...-1.401...-1.20...51.5...74.9

Oct 1960...-1.187...-1.506...-0.89...54.7...57.5

 

Nice work . 9 out of 11 featured a - EPO . These regimes like to work together . 

I think  you will see that again this year . 

 

 

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30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

from a burried post of mine...

here is a list of the lowest AO Octobers along with what the AO number was for January...8 of 12 had either historic snowstorms or cold or both...

1960...-1.187...-1.506...historic winter...

1966...-1.077...-0.576...historic winter...

1968...-1.013...-2.967...close to historic...

1974...-1.024....1.595...mild with less snow...

1976...-0.804...-3.767...historic cold...

1979...-1.243...-2.066...AO was no help up here...

1981...-1.167...-0.883...historic cold...

2002...-1.489...-0.472...historic winter...

2006...-1.029....2.034...mild snowless with one cold month...

2009...-1.540...-2.587...historic winter...

2012...-1.514...-0.610...mild with average snow...

2014...-1.134....1.092...close to historic despite the plus ao in January...

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20 minutes ago, uncle W said:

from a burried post of mine...

here is a list of the lowest AO Octobers along with what the AO number was for January...8 of 12 had either historic snowstorms or cold or both...

1960...-1.187...-1.506...historic winter...

1966...-1.077...-0.576...historic winter...

1968...-1.013...-2.967...close to historic...

1974...-1.024....1.595...mild with less snow...

1976...-0.804...-3.767...historic cold...

1979...-1.243...-2.066...AO was no help up here...

1981...-1.167...-0.883...historic cold...

2002...-1.489...-0.472...historic winter...

2006...-1.029....2.034...mild snowless with one cold month...

2009...-1.540...-2.587...historic winter...

2012...-1.514...-0.610...mild with average snow...

2014...-1.134....1.092...close to historic despite the plus ao in January...

It's funny how 4 of the 5 failed years occurred near the middle or end of relatively prolonged periods where one ENSO phase dominated.   2012 in the 3rd year of a La Niña, 2006 in what was basically the 4th year out of 5 with an El Niño, 1979 the 4th year of El Niño of neutral and 74 the 2nd year in a row of moderate to strong La Niña. 

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Not to diminish the value of certain correlations, but just to play devil's advocate, the sample size is very small, so I'm not sure that any robust, scientific conclusions can be determined at this point. Similar to the July -AO/ensuing winter -AO correlation - which to me, was a relationship that didn't have sufficient evidence of a plausible, causal link, thereby significantly decreasing the value of it. The strong October -AO has some value I think, due to the fact that it probably correlates to more rapid snow advance in the mid latitudes, but even still, over longer time scales, the Oct AO-Winter correlation doesn't appear as strong. In other words, my opinion is that it's a tool that can/should be utilized, but one must still proceed with caution in terms of applying too much weight to any singular correlation. 

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

While February 2007 saw one of the coldest in years for our area with a strong -AO pattern, the Valentine's Day Ice storm

hurt our chances for getting closer to normal snowfall. It's funny how it was one of the few recent winters that couldn't

produce near to above normal snowfall after turning colder following a very mild month. 2005-2006 and 2015-2016

were able to bounce back to above normal snowfall following near to record warm preceding months.

We've been unusually lucky the last 10-15 years where almost every cold period, even during bad winters has produced something.  That to me is what is different than the 80s when that often did not happen.  We've had some close calls like December 2000 where we made it to the 2nd to last day with like 0.8 inches in a month that was -5 to -6 and I guess February 04, although it averaged near normal was pretty darn cold early and we ended up with like half an inch for the month.

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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

While February 2007 saw one of the coldest in years for our area with a strong -AO pattern, the Valentine's Day Ice storm

hurt our chances for getting closer to normal snowfall. It's funny how it was one of the few recent winters that couldn't

produce near to above normal snowfall after turning colder following a very mild month. 2005-2006 and 2015-2016

were able to bounce back to above normal snowfall following near to record warm preceding months.

Those winters you mentioned did it in one shot - both produced nearly the seasonal average for CPK in one day.  I often say we are now in a 'snowy epoch,' where it seems even the most anti snow regimes will still produce. 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It looks like we have a chance to surpass the October 2009 -AO record of -1.540. The official October AO numbers should update in early November.

 

Current obs and forecast drop last few days of October

ao.obs.gif

 

ao.sprd2.jpg

 

October 2009 AO

 

ao-index_122909.png

 

 

BIG news for those that are looking for a cold and snowy winter on the EC. Still cautiously optimistic at this point though....

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we could be looking at the lowest AO October on record this year...November looks to be a -AO month...the only times the AO was -.500 or lower for October and November were...

1960.....-1.187.....-0.553...neutral- after neutral-...cold Dec...

1968.....-1.013.....-2.183...el nino after la nina...Cold Dec...

1980.....-0.521.....-1.361...neutral- after el nino...cold Dec...

1997.....-0.700.....-0.661...el nino after neutral-

2002.....-1.489.....-1.425...el nino after neutral-...

2014.....-1.134.....-0.530...neutral+ after la nina...

1952 and 1974 almost made the list...a developing el nino and second year la nina...1980 is the only year like 2016 which is neutral- or weak la nina after an el nino...

 

 

oct 30 ao forecast.gif

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Isn't the CFS still predicting a Top Ten warm winter (+4, just needs to be +3) and a dry one at that, as of today?    At this point the only thing we have to look forward to is water restrictions this spring!    Not saying this will be so myself, but when should we expect the CFS to cave?

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1 minute ago, CIK62 said:

Isn't the CFS still predicting a Top Ten warm winter (+4, just needs to be +3) and a dry one at that, as of today?    At this point the only thing we have to look forward to is water restrictions this spring!    Not saying this will be so myself, but when should we expect the CFS to cave?

cfs-mon_01_T2maMean_month_us_3.png

 

cfs-mon_01_z500aMean_month_us_3.png

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3 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Isn't the CFS still predicting a Top Ten warm winter (+4, just needs to be +3) and a dry one at that, as of today?    At this point the only thing we have to look forward to is water restrictions this spring!    Not saying this will be so myself, but when should we expect the CFS to cave?

Don't worry by next week the CFS will most likely flip flop to Siberian temps over the lower 48. That said, not for us specifically but the new Environment Canada model outlook came out today and it's an epic blowtorch winter, coast to coast for all of Canada

IMG_8273.PNG

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On 10/31/2016 at 4:58 PM, snowman19 said:

Don't worry by next week the CFS will most likely flip flop to Siberian temps over the lower 48. That said, not for us specifically but the new Environment Canada model outlook came out today and it's an epic blowtorch winter, coast to coast for all of Canada

IMG_8273.PNG

 

Epic blowtorch ? What an epic insult to the reader here. 

Those are probabilities not anomalies. 

So yes it's showing 50 % 60 % 70 % 80 % probability of AN .

But  is it +1c or +5c ? We don't know  because it doesn't forecast it. 

If we knew that then torch would apply .

 +1 or + 3 in Manitoba is BN here with the right 500.

But regardless , that scheme doesn't tell you that. 

Now the exact same model  is  N for everyone East of the Apps on the EC during November. 

After such a warm start,  it's probably seeing  second half has to be colder right  in order to get back to N ? 

Epic torch , talk about extrapolating probabilities. 

 

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Some interesting contrasts this October and November to the previous 11 Octobers which had a -AO reading below -1.000.

This October set a new record for warmth in the Arctic while Eurasia experienced near record cold and snowfall. All the

guidance continues to keep the polar vortex over Eurasia while continuing the the Arctic warmth as we move into November.

Another big difference is the lack of cold over North America compared to the previous -AO composite. In fact, the ensembles

build record warmth across Canada and the Northern Tier of the US going forward. So the October and November composite

for North America will be much warmer than the past years with such a -AO in October.

 

How and if this unusual October and November pattern impacts the rest of the winter into the spring compared to past analogs

is still a big unknown at this point.

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Some interesting contrasts this October and November to the previous 11 Octobers which had a -AO reading below -1.000.

This October set a new record for warmth in the Arctic while Eurasia experienced near record cold and snowfall. All the

guidance continues to keep the polar vortex over Eurasia while continuing the the Arctic warmth as we move into November.

Another big difference is the lack of cold over North America compared to the previous -AO composite. In fact, the ensembles

build record warmth across Canada and the Northern Tier of the US going forward. So the October and November composite

for North America will be much warmer than the past years with such a -AO in October.

 

Exactly how and if this unusual October and November pattern impacts the rest of the winter into the spring compared to past analogs

is still a big unknown at this point.

 

October 2016 Northern Hemisphere temperatures vs the October-November composite

 

Oct16.png

 

COMP.png

 

I read an article yesterday suggesting that all the warmth over the North Pole and Canada combined with the lack of sea ice and relatively warm sstas, has created a positive feedback loop on our side of the pole and that's the reason the warmth keeps reloading and staying in place. Whether it has any merit we will see I guess

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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I read an article yesterday suggesting that all the warmth over the North Pole and Canada combined with the lack of sea ice and relatively warm sstas, has created a positive feedback loop on our side of the pole and that's the reason the warmth keeps reloading and staying in place. Whether it has any merit we will see I guess

 

Its possible,  

But are you buying that ?

Both Griteater as well as  myself  think December is -3 .

I think you posted in the other thread that his winter forecast was in line with your thinking. 

Is it safe to assume you think Dec is cold like Masielo and others do  ? 

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28 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

 

Its possible,  

But are you buying that ?

Both Griteater as well as  myself  think December is -3 .

I think you posted in the other thread that his winter forecast was in line with your thinking. 

Is it safe to assume you think Dec is cold like Masielo and others do  ? 

Do I buy all the man made global warming theories? No. Is it possible the warm pattern over Canada and the North Pole are positively feeding back given the lack of sea ice? Maybe. Now to the other question. I think -3 is too cold but I can certainly see December being normal to slightly below normal possibly, yes. In fact I think December will be the coldest month of this upcoming winter 

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Do I buy all the man made global warming theories? No. Is it possible the warm pattern over Canada and the North Pole are positively feeding back given the lack of sea ice? Maybe. Now to the other question. I think -3 is too cold but I can certainly see December being normal to slightly below normal possibly, yes. In fact I think December will be the coldest month of this upcoming winter 

 

Well the base state is definitely warmer no one can argue that. 

My question is does global warming cause the US to torch and Asia freeze ?  Could be feedback but, 

I  just saw 2 years ago  where the world roasted and we froze and that was blamed on the EPO but  now Asia and Europe are cold and because we are warm it's Global warming...

I just think it's a result of  the EP wave train that is pushing on that NEG while L/P does not want to get out of the B/S.

That's a result of the PAC , I'm sure Masielo etc knows  ( The retrogression keeps false starting ) .

The models are missing the push East and are insisting on pulling that height field back. 

I think it eventually does , but thats guidance based ....

First I thought we would see that on the 10th , I pushed that to the 15th and now even to there,  it's not sustained yet.

 

The good thing it's only Nov 4th and no one I have read thinks this is last year,  so maybe patience is going to be required. 

But I am -3 in December..We will see. 

 

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