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Oct 22/23rd Sat /Sun heavy rain, high wind, elevation upslope snow. All of New England


Ginx snewx

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26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why should we use the Euro when it's performed awful on  this thing?

It has?  I didn't realize the storm has already happened.

Its almost as if you make up your mind 5 days out and then run with the model that fits that vision, even if using a different model every 6 hours.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It has?  I didn't realize the storm has already happened.

Its almost as if you make up your mind 5 days out and then run with the model that fits that vision, even if using a different model every 6 hours.

 

There was a time back in like '07-'08 or '08-'09 winters when he deferred to mets and other experts...those days seem like a long long time ago....lol. Now it's just scour twitter or any other piece of social media that remotely fits the preconceived idea and use it as proof that your idea is verifying or is going to verify. It's the absolute perfect example of confirmation bias....probably not a good thing in the sciences.

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It does have potential to overachieve in snow if the upslope and deformation signal really line up for a few hrs. That's how you get one of those narrow bands that can drop unexpected SHSN really far to the south. Sometimes those def zones can outstand the downslope off the berks and bring flakes to ORH hills. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

It does have potential to overachieve in snow if the upslope and deformation signal really line up for a few hrs. That's how you get one of those narrow bands that can drop unexpected SHSN really far to the south. Sometimes those def zones can outstand the downslope off the berks and bring flakes to ORH hills. 

The mid-level signature looks nice...when that teams up with upslope you can get some fun stuff for a few hours...I could def see even the west slope of Berkshires getting a surprise 3-6" as long as it is cold enough in that lowest 2000 feet.

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15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It has?  I didn't realize the storm has already happened.

Its almost as if you make up your mind 5 days out and then run with the model that fits that vision, even if using a different model every 6 hours.

Sounds just like you all of last winter. It's as if you are the pot calling the kettle black

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

At the heavy rain sliding to my east? It does look like it's pouring out to the east

yep and that sure as hell doesn't match up with the map you posted or your beloved GFS. The axis of heaviest rain in these situations is absurdely difficult for modeling to pick up. You are definetly Central CT and very close to death valley

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sounds just like you all of last winter. It's as if you are the pot calling the kettle black

Fair enough, worst winter on record in at least 60 years seemed like the time to do it.

With you its whatever your latest fetish is... if you are in drought mode, find the model with no rain.  If you are in snow mode, find the snowiest one.  If you are in wind mode, find the model with the highest winds.  Heat mode, cold mode, flooding, ice, etc.  You name it and you'll toss the models that don't show it.  Its ok to admit though.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Fair enough, worst winter on record in at least 60 years seemed like the time to do it.

With you its whatever your latest fetish is... if you are in drought mode, find the model with no rain.  If you are in snow mode, find the snowiest one.  If you are in wind mode, find the model with the highest winds.  Heat mode, cold mode, flooding, ice, etc.  You name it and you'll toss the models that don't show it.  Its ok to admit though.

And generally it's the right idea 

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1 minute ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Nice steady rain the past 2 days-- 1.6" and counting

Maybe some more and then some possible flakes..nice to see some interesting weather returning.

I think your area might be sneaky snowy on the west slopes down there.  I bet you see some flakes.  Models are pretty robust with upslope straight down into the Berkshires.  Just depends on how cold it can get.  The west slope where you are might get some help from upslope cooling processes too.

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Fair enough, worst winter on record in at least 60 years seemed like the time to do it.

With you its whatever your latest fetish is... if you are in drought mode, find the model with no rain.  If you are in snow mode, find the snowiest one.  If you are in wind mode, find the model with the highest winds.  Heat mode, cold mode, flooding, ice, etc.  You name it and you'll toss the models that don't show it.  Its ok to admit though.

You hit the nail on the head perfectly!   

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Is that the bulk of the acitivity? Seems like everything is siding west of what it looked like not to long ago 

Some of the models were west too. These bands are tough to predict. There is more off to the south with some convection so it may move into your area.

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I have a question about weather stations , what would cause my temp to plummet way lower than the actual temp on clear nights .  My temp and dew points were way out of wack and reading in the teens .   As soon as morning came it adjusted itself to normal temp which was about 50

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