Greyhound Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 22 hours ago, tnweathernut said: If you spend time in other subforums you will notice people jump cliffs regarding "winter weather" in the month of December almost every year. It happens in almost every forum, though I think our subforum is the most level headed on the board. It's actually quite comical when you think about it. There are claims from amateurs of methods working and methods not working. I am sure you have heard some of them........ The SAI can predict the AO, the SAI is a terrible predictor of the AO. La Nina means this, La Nina means that. Sunspots are increasing, sunspots are decreasing, there are NO sunspots! The NAO will likely average negative this year, the NAO will NEVER again average negative in my lifetime, it always snows in Texas and never snows here, The PDO will save us, why isn't the PDO saving us. Wait, didn't I hear something about the WPO and the EPO? Did you see the stratosphere at hour 782, man that thing is getting ripped to shreds! Did you see the MJO? Man, winter is really on it's way this time. Sea ice this, sea ice that. I seriously could go on and on here, but what is my point, right? I know I am preaching to the choir, but do you know Domino's professes to make nearly 34 million different pizza combinations. (the actual number is much higher if you do the math). All from 10 combinations of size and crust, 6 different amounts of cheese and 13 sauce choices, and 25 different toppings, each of which you can order in 6 different amounts. How in the world is anyone supposed to accurately predict what will happen with regards to weather beyond days 5-7? With Wooly worms and persimmon seeds!!! Duh?!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Just now, Greyhound said: With Wooly worms and persimmon seeds!!! Duh?!?!? BWAHAHAHAHA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 Everyone have a Merry Christmas and/or Happy Hanukkah. Between bouts of rain Saturday and Monday, Christmas Day looks like a gem with highs 65-70. Some sun would be the perfect gift. If it's not going to snow, warm works! Chiefs better beat the Broncos Sunday night and Oakland needs to lose. Raiders at the top of the AFC West is a major disturbance in the Force. Looks windy in KC; might even have some low top convection. Oh what fun it is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 2 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Everyone have a Merry Christmas and/or Happy Hanukkah. Between bouts of rain Saturday and Monday, Christmas Day looks like a gem with highs 65-70. Some sun would be the perfect gift. If it's not going to snow, warm works! Chiefs better beat the Broncos Sunday night and Oakland needs to lose. Raiders at the top of the AFC West is a major disturbance in the Force. Looks windy in KC; might even have some low top convection. Oh what fun it is! Thanks, Merry Christmas to you and everyone else as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2016 Author Share Posted December 23, 2016 3 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Everyone have a Merry Christmas and/or Happy Hanukkah. Between bouts of rain Saturday and Monday, Christmas Day looks like a gem with highs 65-70. Some sun would be the perfect gift. If it's not going to snow, warm works! Chiefs better beat the Broncos Sunday night and Oakland needs to lose. Raiders at the top of the AFC West is a major disturbance in the Force. Looks windy in KC; might even have some low top convection. Oh what fun it is! Same to you!!! Smorgasbord of sports upcoming. Eric Berry is the man. Thanks for all of your weather knowledge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 On 12/23/2016 at 0:27 PM, nrgjeff said: Everyone have a Merry Christmas and/or Happy Hanukkah. Between bouts of rain Saturday and Monday, Christmas Day looks like a gem with highs 65-70. Some sun would be the perfect gift. If it's not going to snow, warm works! Chiefs better beat the Broncos Sunday night and Oakland needs to lose. Raiders at the top of the AFC West is a major disturbance in the Force. Looks windy in KC; might even have some low top convection. Oh what fun it is! Merry Christmas to you and yours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 I smell a banana high in our future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 I hope everyone has a great Christmas and New Year. This is my favorite weather board when I need information on the upcoming weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 Merry Christmas to all! As usual, New Years in Nooga. So that snow event the Para shows is really likely north of 40 if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Mr.Bob,Ramsey had the game of his young career today.So glad we drafted him.Soon as he learns the faster scheme of the NFL (which he's catching on)he's going to make our D much better.My prediction by year 3 he'll be one of the best if not the best CB in the league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 On 12/23/2016 at 4:27 PM, Carvers Gap said: Smorgasbord of sports upcoming. Eric Berry is the man. Eric Berry is truly an inspiration. Cancer sux but Berry shows we can still fight back! Meanwhile I am a Denver fan this weekend. Need the Broncos to beat the Raiders at Mile High. KC needs to win at San Diego. Playoffs is nice, but one home game would be helpful. Either way looks like the road goes through New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 I'm pulling for the Chiefs in the AFC, but I'm an old school Cowboys fan back to the Staubach days. It's been a long couple of decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 On 12/24/2016 at 8:16 PM, jaxjagman said: Mr.Bob,Ramsey had the game of his young career today.So glad we drafted him.Soon as he learns the faster scheme of the NFL (which he's catching on)he's going to make our D much better.My prediction by year 3 he'll be one of the best if not the best CB in the league. You guys get a real coach and your team will rebound a lot faster than people think.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I knew there was a storm not too long ago that reminded me of this one. It's the February 12th 2014 event. There was a bit of an overrunning event followed by a Miller A development in the GoM. The NAM and especially the GFS were way south/east with the system a few days out as the Euro and GGEM trended NW. The GFS was 150-200 miles deep in the GOM and they out to sea most of the week. This is a NAM map for it from around 36-48 hours out. The NAM kept giving big hits when it was out towards 84 hours away, then lost it GFS from 36 hours out. That storm ended up with around 8 inches in NE Alabama, 6 inches near Crossville, 9 inches in my area, near 10 in Chattanooga with thundersnow, 5-7 in TYS and Tri, 8-10 in SWVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 hour ago, John1122 said: I knew there was a storm not too long ago that reminded me of this one. It's the February 12th 2014 event. There was a bit of an overrunning event followed by a Miller A development in the GoM. The NAM and especially the GFS were way south/east with the system a few days out as the Euro and GGEM trended NW. The GFS was 150-200 miles deep in the GOM and they out to sea most of the week. This is a NAM map for it from around 36-48 hours out. The NAM kept giving big hits when it was out towards 84 hours away, then lost it GFS from 36 hours out. That storm ended up with around 8 inches in NE Alabama, 6 inches near Crossville, 9 inches in my area, near 10 in Chattanooga with thundersnow, 5-7 in TYS and Tri, 8-10 in SWVA. Great post! Why did you put it in banter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 that Feb '14 storm was awesome... someone was comparing this go around to that one a few days ago... that was a heavy wet snow if I remember correctly. Would be nice to compare some model maps from that storm to current ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 hour ago, John1122 said: I knew there was a storm not too long ago that reminded me of this one. It's the February 12th 2014 event. There was a bit of an overrunning event followed by a Miller A development in the GoM. The NAM and especially the GFS were way south/east with the system a few days out as the Euro and GGEM trended NW. The GFS was 150-200 miles deep in the GOM and they out to sea most of the week. This is a NAM map for it from around 36-48 hours out. The NAM kept giving big hits when it was out towards 84 hours away, then lost it GFS from 36 hours out. That storm ended up with around 8 inches in NE Alabama, 6 inches near Crossville, 9 inches in my area, near 10 in Chattanooga with thundersnow, 5-7 in TYS and Tri, 8-10 in SWVA. Where did that energy originate from? Pacific or Canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 19 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Great post! Why did you put it in banter? I was apparently in the wrong forum when I posted it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 24 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Where did that energy originate from? Pacific or Canada? It came off the pacific into New Mexico and Texas. GFS had it strung out at 500, then developed a low 150-200 miles deep in the GoM. Euro and GGem were much more robust the entire time basically and ended up being right. The GFS scrambled back on the last day but never got above 2-3 inch totals for my area. MRX sided with the GFS, gave me a WWA for 1-3 but forecast WSW for the Smokies. 2-3 inches in far NW Scott County is the only part of the MRX cwa that didn't verify warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 30 minutes ago, John1122 said: It came off the pacific into New Mexico and Texas. GFS had it strung out at 500, then developed a low 150-200 miles deep in the GoM. Euro and GGem were much more robust the entire time basically and ended up being right. The GFS scrambled back on the last day but never got above 2-3 inch totals for my area. MRX sided with the GFS, gave me a WWA for 1-3 but forecast WSW for the Smokies. 2-3 inches in far NW Scott County is the only part of the MRX cwa that didn't verify warning criteria. wow, if you're working off memory on that.. if not, is there a site that archives old model maps or do you just have a personal archive? Oh, haha, I guess there still is a thread on that storm here.. duh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Here is the post storm thread from the Southeast forum.....there were a number of threads leading up to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, Vol Man said: Here is the post storm thread from the Southeast forum.....there were a number of threads leading up to the storm. yeah, I just realized there would still be threads on it... still, be nice if there was a model archive site... analogs at your fingertips.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Canadian is rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I could use some Molson. Do they still have that 7.5% XXX strong beer? Kansas men's hoops wins at the buzzer, driving to the basket, over our in state rival on ESPN Super Tuesday! Friday system is two free-throws down by one with :03 left. After the weekend looks very mild for a couple weeks. Maybe try again in Feb. Still the sports metaphor is in effect. 12Z Euro arrives. Missed first free throw. I'll check the college basketball schedule instead.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Heard the Gospel/Christian song "Peace in the Valley" earlier today. Jokingly, to myself, I replaced the word "peace" with "snow" in the chorus section..... and it just seemed appropriate in light of the model madness. Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 I tell you what, few things make me happier than seeing how much this forum has grown. We have people from five different states posting today. Multiple, multiple cities represented. Posts are quality. Nice atmosphere. Increasing number of new posters. Great to see. Keep it up, everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 32 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I tell you what, few things make me happier than seeing how much this forum has grown. We have people from five different states posting today. Multiple, multiple cities represented. Posts are quality. Nice atmosphere. Increasing number of new posters. Great to see. Keep it up, everybody. Hear! Hear! I love this sub-forum! Is this our 3rd winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 NAM is rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 37 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I tell you what, few things make me happier than seeing how much this forum has grown. We have people from five different states posting today. Multiple, multiple cities represented. Posts are quality. Nice atmosphere. Increasing number of new posters. Great to see. Keep it up, everybody. I know I don't post often, but I really love this board. I learn more about the weather here than I would anywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Stove, I love your pictures :-). And I second Carver's comments above...great forum. One of the things I look forward to as winter approaches each year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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