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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Fall into Winter!


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14 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Nice to see this, but I'm very skeptical after his less than stellar performance last year.  Maybe this will work out better without a very strong Nino this year...

He has been right I think 5 out of 7 times, his decision to avoid the super Nino last year was just dumb on his part. 

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1 hour ago, CNY_WX said:

I received just over 3 inches of rain between 8 AM yesterday and 8 AM this morning. My sump pump has been running almost continuously since last night. This event should go a long way in ending the drought conditions in this area. 

Completely agree.  This is a classic drought buster.  A month later and this thing has all the earmarks of a major snowstorm.  It's really a beautiful long duration fall storm, I'm absolutely loving it.  I'm really interested to see how much energy that tropical disturbance pumps into this low, perhaps it blows up a little deeper than expected.  The South shore of Lake Ontario is already flirting with some pretty high end winds if the current models verify.  

High Winds from the north on very saturated ground with trees that still have a lot of foliage sounds a little dicey.  Sporadic power outages seem possible tomorrow.  

2.56" as of 1215pm

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I just measured another 1.12 inches since 8 AM yesterday. That brings the 2 day total up to 4.17 inches. Fortunately the heaviest rain this morning is just to the east of me because we don't need anymore rain right now. Channel 9's Doppler radar is reporting snow starting to mix in over the higher elevations of Madison County. I'm at 41 degrees right now and being on the lake plain I don't expect any snow here. 

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1 hour ago, CNY_WX said:

I just measured another 1.12 inches since 8 AM yesterday. That brings the 2 day total up to 4.17 inches. Fortunately the heaviest rain this morning is just to the east of me because we don't need anymore rain right now. Channel 9's Doppler radar is reporting snow starting to mix in over the higher elevations of Madison County. I'm at 41 degrees right now and being on the lake plain I don't expect any snow here. 

Wow nice rainfall amount. The track of this system was just perfect for optimal QPF. Most of WNY picked up 1-2 inches total. Definitely helps destroy the drought. 

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Radar looking good already for snow in the higher elevations east of Lake Ontario... however, I've been following web cams all morning and haven't seen any signs of flakes anywhere on the Tug or Adirondacks yet. I was thinking about pulling the trigger on a quick trip up there to catch some early season snow but I think I'm going to hold off. 

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30 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Radar looking good already for snow in the higher elevations east of Lake Ontario... however, I've been following web cams all morning and haven't seen any signs of flakes anywhere on the Tug or Adirondacks yet. I was thinking about pulling the trigger on a quick trip up there to catch some early season snow but I think I'm going to hold off. 

A trip for a couple flakes. Man you must be desperate lol

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Northern Daks look to be the place to be in this setup. Jet couplet combined with a closed 500mb low over the NE will provide some decent dynamics to enhance the precip field in that area. Tey also get the benefit of seeing the longest lasting precip due to latitude. The higher elevations around 2500-3000'+ will probably cash 6-10" in this setup. Look at WV and see the small fire hose aimed at Upstate right now. With the anticipated CAA on the backside of the low, snowfall elevations should fall through the day with gradually increasing snow ratios in the higher terrain. Not bad for a low located well off the coast into New England. I want to see pics when all said and done if anyone gets the white stuff ^_^

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14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'm up here in Albany and I'm tempted to take the trip girlfriend that hates snow and all lol

My girlfriend likes watching snow fall, but she hates shoveling it. I don't mind shoveling because I'll take my time if I need to and I get to be out in the snow. I told her I'll do all the shoveling as long as she makes me a big hearty breakfast and does the laundry. I think I'll take the W for that one haha

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Woke up to sleet with the very occasional flake around 7:30am  The snow kept wanting to come down the hill, but here in the hollow, at 2/K ft, it would change back to rain and sleet.  About 2 hours ago, 10:15 it began to snow and for the last hour it's been moderate with some coating on the grass, decks and barn.  This is in central Delaware County.  Funny BGM discussion only stated reports of mixing north of Oneonta--I am sure higher elevations around here have even more.

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4 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Northern Daks look to be the place to be in this setup. Jet couplet combined with a closed 500mb low over the NE will provide some decent dynamics to enhance the precip field in that area. Tey also get the benefit of seeing the longest lasting precip due to latitude. The higher elevations around 2500-3000'+ will probably cash 6-10" in this setup. Look at WV and see the small fire hose aimed at Upstate right now. With the anticipated CAA on the backside of the low, snowfall elevations should fall through the day with gradually increasing snow ratios in the higher terrain. Not bad for a low located well off the coast into New England. I want to see pics when all said and done if anyone gets the white stuff ^_^

Looks like quite a bit of snow in West Virginia as well, saw some pics in the NE forum.

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4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'm up here in Albany and I'm tempted to take the trip girlfriend that hates snow and all lol

Definitely go for it, might be awhile before DC gets some snow.

4 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

My girlfriend likes watching snow fall, but she hates shoveling it. I don't mind shoveling because I'll take my time if I need to and I get to be out in the snow. I told her I'll do all the shoveling as long as she makes me a big hearty breakfast and does the laundry. I think I'll take the W for that one haha

My wife loves the snow, she grew up in South Eden on top of a hill which averages over 150"+ a year, shes my chase partner until Devin joins back with me. ^_^

4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'm not sure what traumatic experience made her hate snow, but she's openly hostile toward any mention of it. I'd shovel all day everyday if it kept falling. 

I'll definitely be the dad out in the snow with the bundled up kids while she's inside with the shades drawn.

My driveway is 200' long, that November 2014 storm destroyed even me, someone who goes to the gym 5-6 days a week for last few years. It was so heavy and just coming and coming. It was my only ever defeat, I did clear about 75% of my driveway, until I had to have someone come help with the end which the plows pushed all the snow into.

4 hours ago, danno said:

Old Forge now.  Sitting  here on the edge of the Tug at 39 degrees, dont expect more than some slush on the windshields  here later.

Screenshot_20161022-115404.png

 

1 hour ago, manhattanandcatskills said:

IMG_9768.jpg

Awesome Pics!

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11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Definitely go for it, might be awhile before DC gets some snow.

My wife loves the snow, she grew up in South Eden on top of a hill which averages over 150"+ a year, shes my chase partner until Devin joins back with me. ^_^

My driveway is 200' long, that November 2014 storm destroyed even me, someone who goes to the gym 5-6 days a week for last few years. It was so heavy and just coming and coming. It was my only ever defeat, I did clear about 75% of my driveway, until I had to have someone come help with the end which the plows pushed all the snow into.

 

Awesome Pics!

You know I'm always down to chase haha even the events I shouldn't chase I do. Now I'm regretting not going to the Dacks today where it looks like they're starting to get hammered. 

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12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

First snow at Holiday Valley as well. Average first snow at KBUF is 10/24.

14642026_10150714586434964_8579761160245

https://web.archive.org/web/20141210092801/http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/08-09.html

 

what I would do for a repeat of 08-09. 5 events in a 3 week period of November. I remember ski country getting pounded wishing I had a vehicle to chase down there. If I remember correctly Holiday Valley was open before Thanksgiving on all natural snow. Just thinking about that right now seems absolutely absurd! 

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