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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Fall into Winter!


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It's officially October 10th and about the time we start the countdown to when our forum finally becomes active. November 1st starts lake effect snow season around these parts. The next few weeks look relatively warm. Lake temperatures are at record highs. But this brings us to what possibly could be coming this winter in terms of snow/cold.

Latest Values for the La Nina

Nino 1.2: +0.6 (-0.2)

Nino 3: -0.2 (-0.1)

Nino 3.4: -0.8 (-0.4)

Nino 4: -0.5 (-0.3)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

So overall this winter we are looking at Neutral Enso conditions leaning towards a possible weak La Nina which is much different than the advertised strong La Nina that usually comes right after a record El Nino.

The Euro Monthlies also just came out and are some of the best indications of what is to come in the next few months.

11 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

They are really good for dec and Jan. Huge -NAO and -EPO in December. Closer to neutral EPO in January but still good -NAO. February looks like. Positive EPO and negative PNA pattern. NAO stay negative though so maybe still chances. But I've never seen the euro seasonal show such a robust pattern like it does for December. I guess we'll see how it looks next month. 

The CFS are also on our side as well.

cfs-mon_01_z500a_namer.jpg

The top analog years for this coming year would be:

2008-09: 100.2

1961-62: 101.4

2005-06: 78.2

1983-84: 132.5

1959-60: 115.6

2013-14: 129.9

1978-79: 97.3

Average: 107.9"

So while long term forecasting for winter should be taken with a grain of salt, the overall implications favor a more normal winter in terms of cold and snowfall for next season. At any rate, I guarantee we will have a "better" winter than last year and a much earlier start to winter weather in comparison to the last few Decembers.  ^_^

Here are a few winter forecasts that have been published so far.

WeatherBell: http://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2016-17-forecast

Accuweather: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2016-2017-us-winter-forecast-northeast-above-normal-snow-freeze-hurt-citrus-south/60277878

WeatherChannel: https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-outlook-2016-2017-twc

HudsonValley: http://www.hudsonvalleyweather.com/2016-2017-hvw-winter-outlook/

 

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KBUF NWS did a new writeup for the anniversary of the Oct. surprise storm. I lived really close to the airport for this event and didn't have power for 2 weeks. Definitely one of the craziest events I've witnessed. We lost 5 trees in our yard from this storm and our road was impassable for 5 days.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive2006-2007_a

It has the radar and atmospheric pattern loops for the event.

https://www.weather.gov/images/buf/lesEventArchive/2006-2007/a/stormTotalMap/A_label.png

Depew			24 inches
Alden (Milgrove)	24 inches
Cheektowaga (NWS)	22.6 inches
Buffalo (North)		20 inches
-Downtown		15 inches
-South			10 inches
Amherst			14 to 22 inches
Clarence		16 to 22 inches
Tonawanda		12 to 18 inches
West Seneca		14 inches
No. Tonawanda		6 to 12 inches
Hamburg			8 to 14 inches
Orchard Park		8 inches
Batavia			10 inches
Medina			8 inches
Lockport		6 to 8 inches
Grand Island		2(N) to 10”(S)
Albion			5 inches
Brockport		3 inches
Niagara Falls		1 inch

 

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Yep. The only Met who got this one right was Andy Parker. I remember watching him the day before and he was the only one calling for heavy snow. Where did you find this gem?



http://www.usawx.com/thejourney248.htm

Not sure who did this write up but it's awesome. Format jumps around a lot but it has every detail about the storm you could want. It has all the NWS text products from the 11-15. So cool to read them in order as they realized to late how bad things were getting.


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29 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 


http://www.usawx.com/thejourney248.htm

Not sure who did this write up but it's awesome. Format jumps around a lot but it has every detail about the storm you could want. It has all the NWS text products from the 11-15. So cool to read them in order as they realized to late how bad things were getting.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This is some awesome stuff, Thanks!

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9 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Pretty interesting to hear local TV mets talking about October Siberian Snowfall relating to our upcoming winter season. Informing the public of climate patterns rather than standing outside the studio telling people the NOW weather. Are we on to something new here? c5bc16a0d4a6c057b643808e4bcfce04.png

I feel like Siberian Snow cover in October from Judah Cowens theory to be overrated and not very clear on what it means for winters in the Great Lake and Northeast. I feel like if it does have any impact it would be on the indices such as the AO and NAO. I think Ninos and Ninas have a far higher coorelation in predicting long term winter weather patterns.

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The next 4 days look like Mid September weather. I think we overachieve and get close to 80 Mon/Tues. The average high for those 4 days is 57/58 degrees.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73.
Monday
Cloudy, with a high near 75.
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 76.
Wednesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 69.
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12z GFS is now hinting at possible first flakes for nearly everyone.  Nice little wound up storm with a front end prolonged heavy rain threat, followed by some low end winds with a decent lake response.   I foresee a lot of graupel in someones future.   Latest run was colder but didnt grab as much tropical moisture until further east of us

A very nice run for some legit fall weather.  

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7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Random question for folks. Have any of you been to Saratoga battlefield? Is it a nice area? The weather might suck, but I'm thinking of going up there this weekend (Saturday in particular) with the gf and I've been trying to find a nice spot that isn't too far from Albany.

Absolutely, really nice area and if you have any interest in American history you will enjoy the battlefield.

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Cowens winter forecast

Forecast Temperature Anomaly Dec-Jan-Feb 2017

 

Predicted winter surface temperature anomalies for the United States Dec-Jan-Feb 2016/17 in degrees Fahrenheit. The model is forecasting colder than normal temperatures for much of the Eastern United States, with warmer than normal temperatures for the Western United States. The model uses October Siberian snow cover, sea level pressure anomalies, predicted El Niño/Southern Oscillation anomalies, and observed September Arctic sea ice anomalies. October Siberian snow cover has so far this month advanced at an above normal rate. This is an indication of an increased probability of a weakened polar vortex or a sudden stratospheric warming, and a predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation during the winter and cold temperatures - especially east of the Mississippi. This is a preliminary forecast and not the official winter forecast as the model requires full monthly values for snow cover and sea level pressure anomalies. The forecast will be updated next month. Current forecast produced on October 19, 2016.
 

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