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2016 Mountains & Foothills Fall & Winter Thread


nchighcountrywx

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4 minutes ago, jburns said:

You'll have to think of doing something else if jshetley is correct and you are wrong.  All the crows will be dead.

He's 0 fer 2 since I've been paying attention to his mid-range forecasts. The '90's well into October' and the 'no rain in sight before Thanksgiving' just before we received an inch of rain here in MBY, didn't hold up. 

Although he may have been correct for his area, wherever that may be, WNC and it's microclimate nature seemed to prevail and usually does.

I'll gladly easy my crow too, but I don't think it's wrong to er on the side of experience either. 

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44 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I'm calling you out on this post because you have no facts to back it up. We are barely in a La Nina if at all. I think El Nino was so strong we actually see some intermittent El Nino patterns show up this winter. We are dry but we are the only ones in the whole state that is this dry. Even NW WNC are not in a drought.  We had a dry wintet last year really that started it all in a super El Nino.  I do agree we are dry but I do not think we stay this way until 2018. Again we are not California. 

If La Nina does not appear, or is very weak, the dry weather probably will not last all winter and beyond, but if La Nina does appear I look for a winter a lot like 1998-99. 1 or 2 shots at winter weather, but no more than that. Of course I'm thinking outside of the mountains. The mountains would have more chances for winter weather with their NW upslope flow events that would not effect the foothills very much. The spring and summer of next year would be like 1999 too. Spring and summer of that year were fairly dry and that summer was very hot at times. It's true that only a small part of NC is in serious drought now, but the area is part of a larger area that goes from western NC back to Miss and it will spread some unless we get good rain. The GFS looked nice for a while, but shows not much rain now right through day 16. 

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7 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I gotta give props to shetley. He was right about 90s well into October.  Some areas could have their latest 90 degree day in the history of records this week. Unprecedented heat the next few days 

But this is a mountains/foothills thread and the board is geared toward NC so he is wrong overall. He should make a thread for Atlanta metro and he would be right 100% of the time for warm and dry.

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47 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Wouldn't Atlanta and North GA be considered the mountains/foothills ?

the dirty foothills and mountains. Atlanta belongs with Alabama and Mississippi hills not NC climate is too different. think Atlanta metro is big enough for a thread to include the Cajun areas of Jonesville SC to Jackson Miss. that way there would not be confusion in drought/cad/temp/ events/situations. 

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3 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Wouldn't Atlanta and North GA be considered the mountains/foothills ?

No, not even close from a climate standpoint, and no he wasn't right. One or two days of 90's is not what he predicted. He predicted we wouldn't have relief until well into October. October has been nearly seasonal nearly every day for many places. 

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2 hours ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

No, not even close from a climate standpoint, and no he wasn't right. One or two days of 90's is not what he predicted. He predicted we wouldn't have relief until well into October. October has been nearly seasonal nearly every day for many places. 

I find it hard to believe that many places have been seasonal nearly every day. ATL is running +4 for the month and I assume most other places have been well above normal this month

 

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1 hour ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I find it hard to believe that many places have been seasonal nearly every day. ATL is running +4 for the month and I assume most other places have been well above normal this month

 

Looks like it's staying rather seasonal to me. This is for KAVL so far in the month of October. 

histGraphAll.gif

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1 hour ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I find it hard to believe that many places have been seasonal nearly every day. ATL is running +4 for the month and I assume most other places have been well above normal this month

 

October has been well above normal for much of the southeast.  This coming week is a huge torch.

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A huge torch is different....that is long term heat no end in sight. 

In the winter, we WANT huge HEAT ahead of a cold front for cold air to funnel in afterwards. We take our chances with secondary lows running into the cold air post front or for the cold to stay around a little longer. That's how it works...99% of the time for Carolina frozen precip. More often than not, cold is exiting day before so we end up with transitioning precip events.

Huge heat ahead of fronts helps with the surface to prevent an icy mess...or unwanted snow cover duration. It's the South-East. Stop the whining, its how the weather cycles work.

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7 hours ago, NWNC2015 said:

A huge torch is different....that is long term heat no end in sight. 

In the winter, we WANT huge HEAT ahead of a cold front for cold air to funnel in afterwards. We take our chances with secondary lows running into the cold air post front or for the cold to stay around a little longer. That's how it works...99% of the time for Carolina frozen precip. More often than not, cold is exiting day before so we end up with transitioning precip events.

Huge heat ahead of fronts helps with the surface to prevent an icy mess...or unwanted snow cover duration. It's the South-East. Stop the whining, its how the weather cycles work.

I don't even have the words..... mid 80s for a week in mid October isn't just a weather cycle.  It's tremendously above normal and part of the new normal in the world we live today.  When you stack up the data this record warm year is showing IMO.

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16 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Wouldn't Atlanta and North GA be considered the mountains/foothills ?

No. We actually get snow. I live at 3500 feet. We get cold and snow whole Atlanta gets Tornadoes and severe weather.  This thread is basically for WNC because our climate in the winter is vastly different than the rest of the SE.

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11 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I find it hard to believe that many places have been seasonal nearly every day. ATL is running +4 for the month and I assume most other places have been well above normal this month

 

Ok this thread is not for Atlanta bud. This is for higher elevations of WNC becausethe climate is very different than ATL and others across the SE. We here in the mountains have been running normal to below normal actually.  Some have even seen a couple of mornings with patchy frost. Our forcast is calling for one day if 80 degrees then by the weekend we may not make it out of the 50s for highs. 

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13 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I find it hard to believe that many places have been seasonal nearly every day. ATL is running +4 for the month and I assume most other places have been well above normal this month

 

This is not every where.  This is the mountains bro. I can assure you we are running near normal. 

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1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Ok this thread is not for Atlanta bud. This is for higher elevations of WNC becausethe climate is very different than ATL and others across the SE. We here in the mountains have been running normal to below normal actually.  Some have even seen a couple of mornings with patchy frost. Our forcast is calling for one day if 80 degrees then by the weekend we may not make it out of the 50s for highs. 

So I'm assuming this thread is also not for the mountains in GA. Like areas in GA that are above 3,000' ?

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2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

No. We actually get snow. I live at 3500 feet. We get cold and snow whole Atlanta gets Tornadoes and severe weather.  This thread is basically for WNC because our climate in the winter is vastly different than the rest of the SE.

I guess the regions that are running well above normal are mainly in the drought regions

27 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

 

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1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I guess the regions that are running well above normal are mainly in the drought regions

 

I would agree with this statement. Here in the NW corner, we've been cloudy for a lot of this month, and received quite a bit more rain with the passage of Matthew than the SW corner of the state towards the Smokies and Asheville. 

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1 hour ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

So I'm assuming this thread is also not for the mountains in GA. Like areas in GA that are above 3,000' ?

For 95% of the North Georgia region, 3,000' is scraping ridge tops and is not inhabited. Nobody is denying that there are a handful of areas that do have a climate similar to WNC, but region to region, it isn't close.

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1 hour ago, whamby said:

Asheville, well within this groups geographical purview, has been running well above normal, like most the Southeast, for months.

We're not talking about 'for months'. We're talking about October and Shetley's prediction, of which we've already proven it to be seasonal based on the temperature chart up to now.

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