Met1985 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 59 minutes ago, MarvelMountain said: A very respectable 3 inches, and the temp never got below 33. I'll gladly take that. All gone by noon...... Nice. Congratulations. It's good to see snow in mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 NAM was just...nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 21 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: NAM was just...nasty. Yay ice! 4km doesn't have nearly the warm nose the 12km does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: Yay ice! 4km doesn't have nearly the warm nose the 12km does. I'm nervous about a warm nose, shows up on every model, question is how long does it last? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: I'm nervous about a warm nose, shows up on every model, question is how long does it last? Yeah me too. 4km and 3km both put a blob right over my house of 3/4" QPF all frozen and lots of ice. Sharp cutoff to my south/east but the flow is right for precip right along the escarpment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 LOL at the 0z GFS. I'm done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarvelMountain Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Made this video from the car while cruising around my neighborhood this morning... https://youtu.be/xebmCATsDiQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 We rain tonight...this is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: We rain tonight...this is ridiculous. The way this winter has gone we should have expected that this or any other storm wasn't going to work out. I'm really ready for spring and warmer weather now. Nice video MM ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMulkey Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Sleet in Blowing Rock right now, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I'm far from convinced we stay non-frozen this evening. I think ice is a real worry along the escarpment up until the late change to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 10 hours ago, MarvelMountain said: Made this video from the car while cruising around my neighborhood this morning... https://youtu.be/xebmCATsDiQ Beautiful man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Lol hold it together fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The 12z looks like ice to rain back to snow. The upslope factor I think will be significant in this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Two things. The NW flow looks great and prolonged. Temps and wind chills are going to be brutal. Highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits with winds gusting to 40 to 50 mph tomorrow. Winter says hello finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The 12z looks awsome for a NW flow event. It's a nice prolonged upslope event with dangerous wind chills and extreme cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SAC Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Any chance for sleet at onset of precip today south of 85 in SC?41/28 in Laurens SC now. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, SAC said: Any chance for sleet at onset of precip today south of 85 in SC?41/28 in Laurens SC now. Thanks I think it's a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 35 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Two things. The NW flow looks great and prolonged. Temps and wind chills are going to be brutal. Highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits with winds gusting to 40 to 50 mph tomorrow. Winter says hello finally. Imagine how cold it would be if this airmass came in 2 months ago ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Imagine how cold it would be if this airmass came in 2 months ago ! The same or warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: The same or warmer. Lol probably. January and February just sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 17 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Imagine how cold it would be if this airmass came in 2 months ago ! March can be a great month for us up here. Sometimes it's one of our snowiest months. This March could be like that for us especially if the upslope snow really produces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Yeah not really understanding the doom and gloom, like Met said the upslope potential looks great with this. The storm will pivot and the upper elevations will benefit from this. Winds that strong should push flakes far into the valleys and I think that would be Asheville's best chance of seeing snow from this. Surface temps are warmer then what models showed yesterday and that will be tough to overcome when the precip enters the area. 850mb temps are still below freezing across much of WNC, but models have those retreating north over the next few hours. Although GSP radar shows moisture advection in over those frozen 850mb's, could have a few flurries to begin.WNC peeps should just sit back and enjoy this one. Rain is likely but a heavy burst of snow isn't out of the question. I am interested to see what happens with this one, been one of the most difficult ones I have had to forecast.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Made it to 35/21 so far here at the house and with thickening clouds I wonder how much warmer we'll get. HRRR was looking decent earlier but less so on the 16z run. Keeps the column about 1º too warm for epicness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 "Why the doom and gloom?" Because where I'm at sucks with upslope events and I'll be lucky to eek out 2 inches when a couple days ago I had 6-8. That's why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 38 minutes ago, Hvward said: Yeah not really understanding the doom and gloom, like Met said the upslope potential looks great with this. The storm will pivot and the upper elevations will benefit from this. Winds that strong should push flakes far into the valleys and I think that would be Asheville's best chance of seeing snow from this. Surface temps are warmer then what models showed yesterday and that will be tough to overcome when the precip enters the area. 850mb temps are still below freezing across much of WNC, but models have those retreating north over the next few hours. Although GSP radar shows moisture advection in over those frozen 850mb's, could have a few flurries to begin. WNC peeps should just sit back and enjoy this one. Rain is likely but a heavy burst of snow isn't out of the question. I am interested to see what happens with this one, been one of the most difficult ones I have had to forecast. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Good stuff Ward. Keep up the posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 13 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: "Why the doom and gloom?" Because where I'm at sucks with upslope events and I'll be lucky to eek out 2 inches when a couple days ago I had 6-8. That's why. You have not had good luck this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 "Why the doom and gloom?" Because where I'm at sucks with upslope events and I'll be lucky to eek out 2 inches when a couple days ago I had 6-8. That's why.Maybe it's time to find a girlfriend man. All joking aside though, I know it's frustrating but you sit in about the best spot of any of us in WNC to see a switchover with the heavy band. You are much closer to where models place 0c 850mb temps and could easily pick up a quick few. Just enjoy the weather buddy, because you can't change it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hvward said: Maybe it's time to find a girlfriend man. All joking aside though, I know it's frustrating but you sit in about the best spot of any of us in WNC to see a switchover with the heavy band. You are much closer to where models place 0c 850mb temps and could easily pick up a quick few. Just enjoy the weather buddy, because you can't change it. Lol, to be fair she's been the one telling me to look at the weather every 5 minutes today so she'll know when it's starting. And it's possible that I do get lucky with the temps, but I've got a feeling that warm nose will stick around a bit longer than expected. Even just 2 hours would make a big difference. I just want warm weather at this point tbh lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 13 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Lol, to be fair she's been the one telling me to look at the weather every 5 minutes today so she'll know when it's starting. And it's possible that I do get lucky with the temps, but I've got a feeling that warm nose will stick around a bit longer than expected. Even just 2 hours would make a big difference. I just want warm weather at this point tbh lol. The 16z HRRR looks okay for you. Changes the main band to snow pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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