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2016 Mountains & Foothills Fall & Winter Thread


nchighcountrywx

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12 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:

Maybe a .25" in Boone, have had cloudless skies all morning and most of the snow is already gone lol hoping for much better things tomorrow night.


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Yea I woke up at 6 this morning and it was pouring snow. Not much accumulation but was nice to watch it fall for a while.

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The developing deformation band of the bombing Lp is going to rack across WNC tomorrow night. Models have continued to increase qpf and a slight warm nose at 925mb shouldn't produce full melt if precip is heavy enough. I see the NC/TN border counties getting in on some good snow. Models are notoriously bad at resolving deformation features and this one going across WNC creates even more variables to take into account. Then NWFS kicks up and hammers the border counties again. Someone will see 8"+ and Boone will get theirs with this one. High omega values indicate good lift and will create very interesting dynamics (thundersnow?) for high elevations of NW NC. GFS nearly doubled qpf from 6z run to 12z run. Let's see what happens with this one, could produce some surprises.


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1 hour ago, cold air aloft said:

I've been lurking here this Winter and have learned alot from y'all. For my first post, a beautiful 4 inches in Maggie Valley

IMG_8969 (1).JPG

Were you down in the valley or up on the ridge like soco gap? Huge difference between those two locations. 

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The developing deformation band of the bombing Lp is going to rack across WNC tomorrow night. Models have continued to increase qpf and a slight warm nose at 925mb shouldn't produce full melt if precip is heavy enough. I see the NC/TN border counties getting in on some good snow. Models are notoriously bad at resolving deformation features and this one going across WNC creates even more variables to take into account. Then NWFS kicks up and hammers the border counties again. Someone will see 8"+ and Boone will get theirs with this one. High omega values indicate good lift and will create very interesting dynamics (thundersnow?) for high elevations of NW NC. GFS nearly doubled qpf from 6z run to 12z run. Let's see what happens with this one, could produce some surprises.


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Liking the sounds of that! The trend is our friend here!


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2 hours ago, Hvward said:

The developing deformation band of the bombing Lp is going to rack across WNC tomorrow night. Models have continued to increase qpf and a slight warm nose at 925mb shouldn't produce full melt if precip is heavy enough. I see the NC/TN border counties getting in on some good snow. Models are notoriously bad at resolving deformation features and this one going across WNC creates even more variables to take into account. Then NWFS kicks up and hammers the border counties again. Someone will see 8"+ and Boone will get theirs with this one. High omega values indicate good lift and will create very interesting dynamics (thundersnow?) for high elevations of NW NC. GFS nearly doubled qpf from 6z run to 12z run. Let's see what happens with this one, could produce some surprises.


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It just feels like we are close to something decent, even here in Asheville, but I am probably just wishcasting.

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4 minutes ago, cold air aloft said:

Yeah, the orientation of the Valley is very favorable for banding from these type of systems. On the other hand, we are in a horrible location for NW flow events.

Soco gap does well in upslope and I sometimes take the kids there to sled. It can be 30 with a couple inches in the valley and in the teens with a foot at the parkway entrance. 

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2 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

NAM took another step in the right direction. Really...REALLY close for this thing being a monster for WNC.

I saw that, hard to believe all wnc doesn't get a good snow Monday night/Tuesday if trends keep up like they are.

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1 minute ago, fritschy said:

I saw that, hard to believe all wnc doesn't get a good snow Monday night/Tuesday if trends keep up like they are.

Just based on rates that the NAM was showing, I don't think the mixing problem will be as big of a deal. It's not often that purples show up. I think rates will overcome the 850's warmness. also, it appears it isn't as big of a deal anyway as it was yesterday.

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16 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Just based on rates that the NAM was showing, I don't think the mixing problem will be as big of a deal. It's not often that purples show up. I think rates will overcome the 850's warmness. also, it appears it isn't as big of a deal anyway as it was yesterday.

Technically 850mb isn't even the problem. It's just above that. The nose keeps shrinking each run, though, and lasting less time as well. This is the hr33 sounding for MBY just before the heaviest rates move in. By hr36 the whole column is solidly below freezing with likely heavy snow. Probably a good base layer of IP/ZR before that.

nam4km_2017031218_033_36.12--81.72.png

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9 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Just based on rates that the NAM was showing, I don't think the mixing problem will be as big of a deal. It's not often that purples show up. I think rates will overcome the 850's warmness. also, it appears it isn't as big of a deal anyway as it was yesterday.

let's hope the trends keep coming, would love to see a miller A coming out of the gulf to end the snow season

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6 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

Technically 850mb isn't even the problem. It's just above that. The nose keeps shrinking each run, though, and lasting less time as well. This is the hr33 sounding for MBY just before the heaviest rates move in. By hr36 the whole column is solidly below freezing with likely heavy snow.

nam4km_2017031218_033_36.12--81.72.png

3k NAM agrees with you. changeover between hour 33 and 34. But it's still a long enough period to wipe out a couple of potential inches of snow. 

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27 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

3k NAM agrees with you. changeover between hour 33 and 34. But it's still a long enough period to wipe out a couple of potential inches of snow. 

This is one of those times when I'm glad I'm in Blowing Rock. We tend to hang onto frozen precip longer than Boone during wedge-driven events. 

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Headed up from Raleigh to ski at App with my 7 year old for one last time tomorrow.  I know beech and sugar are better but it's more for him than me, at least that's what I tell my wife.  What time do you guys think precip moves in tomorrow?   Just trying to see if we get rained/snowed on tomorrow afternoon.  Thanks for the input.  

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9 minutes ago, 27596WXNUT said:

Headed up from Raleigh to ski at App with my 7 year old for one last time tomorrow.  I know beech and sugar are better but it's more for him than me, at least that's what I tell my wife.  What time do you guys think precip moves in tomorrow?   Just trying to see if we get rained/snowed on tomorrow afternoon.  Thanks for the input.  

The 4k NAM has the first bit of precip around 5. 

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