FlatLander48 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Tyler Penland said: At least it's close to a major event Monday night. Rakes us with heavy rates late Monday. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk If no snow tomorrow night equals a big one monday, I'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Didn't think I'd see this forecast the 2nd week in March this year. A high of 24 on Wed. If it does snow Tues., it'll stick around for a few days. Detailed Forecast Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 19. Blustery, with a north northwest wind 16 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Saturday A 50 percent chance of snow, mainly after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 28. Northwest wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Saturday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. North northwest wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Sunday Snow likely, mainly before 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 33. North northwest wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 25. North wind 5 to 9 mph becoming southeast after midnight. Monday A chance of snow and sleet before 3pm, then a chance of rain between 3pm and 5pm, then a chance of snow and sleet after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday Night Rain and sleet likely before 10pm, then rain and snow likely between 10pm and midnight, then snow likely after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Breezy. Tuesday Night A 40 percent chance of snow showers before 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. Blustery. Wednesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Blustery. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 34. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Gfs looKS better than 18z. .5 qpf plus for most of the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Gfs looKS better than 18z. .5 qpf plus for most of the mtns. Yeah, that was a solid hit for Asheville and SW mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 GFS caving to the NAM and Euro idea. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I'm starting to think even we might see rain monday. Let's see what the Euro says about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 hour ago, AsheCounty48 said: I'm starting to think even we might see rain monday. Let's see what the Euro says about that. Euro walking the line between ZR/SN/RN here Monday now. Tons of precip to go around, though. Around .75" at Boone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Can't believe with the storm going up the coast on Monday-Monday night that it wouldn't pull colder air into the storm so all of wnc would be on the nw side for a heavy snow event. Plus with the precip coming in Monday evening / night I would think all snow for the Mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Here is my final snowfall map for wave #1. I think that the SW portion of WNC really does well with the localized upslope enhancement. Buncombe should do alight as well. Might be a little high in Yancey, Mitchell, Avery, and Watauga but if models are 10-15 miles with overrunning orientation, these locations could easily get a couple of inches. For wave #2, I have been studying the mid level temps on various models for the past hour and on most every model is only a degree or two from having a frozen column of air. Point being, the models may not show snow, but -2c at 850mb and -1c at 925mb is not going to melt a huge dendrite. If we were looking at -3c at 850mb and -2 or-3c at 925mb though, partial melt is almost certain. The precip looks like it is going to be there, I am excited to watch this unfold and see what the models do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Good forecast I think Hvward. Sref plumes are up to 5 inches. Of course, that one 21 inch outlier may skew that a little bit. I would be happy with 3 inches, and hope with a little luck for a Monday night surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just stopping by to wish everyone good luck! Haven't been able to look into synoptics of these events. History tells us March systems are tricky and unpredictable. Throw in the micro climates of the Mnts and all bets are off. Point being here is someone will be happy and someone will feel ripped off. I'll check in this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: Just stopping by to wish everyone good luck! Haven't been able to look into synoptics of these events. History tells us March systems are tricky and unpredictable. Throw in the micro climates of the Mnts and all bets are off. Point being here is someone will be happy and someone will feel ripped off. I'll check in this evening. Positive vibes from Weavervegas Don! I am hoping for the best. Other than 1 event, a pretty boring winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, ncjoaquin said: Positive vibes from Weavervegas Don! I am hoping for the best. Other than 1 event, a pretty boring winter. Tough winter for sure Jason. I love March systems, usually they bring heartbreak or tears of joy! Hope you post this pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6z gfs looks like it bumped up totals. It has a solid .5 inch plus of qpf for the central and southern mtns. Probably some foot plus totals in the smokies out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 For wave #2, watch the strength of the CAD. Recall last year, in a very similar setup, the models trended colder with each run as the wedge dynamics came into focus. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see that same thing happen here. Northeast states are cold, dry, and snow covered. So...watch that wedge strength and depth next day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 16 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: 6z gfs looks like it bumped up totals. It has a solid .5 inch plus of qpf for the central and southern mtns. Probably some foot plus totals in the smokies out of this. I noticed that. Definitely better than 0Z. 6 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: For wave #2, watch the strength of the CAD. Recall last year, in a very similar setup, the models trended colder with each run as the wedge dynamics came into focus. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see that same thing happen here. Northeast states are cold, dry, and snow covered. So...watch that wedge strength and depth next day or so. I hope that's the case. This is definitely the big dog. Don't get me wrong. I will be happy with anything big, but I would like a big boom to end the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Check out some of these cams. Nashville getting hammered right now. You need to go to menu and hit traffic cameras and go to some of those in center ciity. Ground temps aren't hurting them any. https://smartway.tn.gov/traffic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 GSP dropped my warning to an advisory for a dusting. Wishing good luck for the southern mtn folks. Maybe you guys can cash in big. I'll take a little flow snow Wed then call it a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, SnoJoe said: GSP dropped my warning to an advisory for a dusting. Wishing good luck for the southern mtn folks. Maybe you guys can cash in big. I'll take a little flow snow Wed then call it a winter. If we had a betting board on here, I would bet by Wednesday you have more snow than all of us, and you will be in double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Been reduced to moderate snow from Ray. I'm even more concerned about the Monday storm than I was last night. Those mid lvl temps are so close to making that storm become a washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Sref over 4 here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, franklin NCwx said: Sref over 4 here now. Light snow in Haywood County Franklin. Anyone else seeing snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said: If we had a betting board on here, I would bet by Wednesday you have more snow than all of us, and you will be in double digits. Lol.. truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Met1985 said: Light snow in Haywood County Franklin. Anyone else seeing snow? Mostly sunny here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, franklin NCwx said: Mostly sunny here. Yeah sun's out here a bit but snow is falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 13 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah sun's out here a bit but snow is falling. I wouldn't have looked if you hadn't posted, but surprisingly a few flurries here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Good forecast I think Hvward. Sref plumes are up to 5 inches. Of course, that one 21 inch outlier may skew that a little bit. I would be happy with 3 inches, and hope with a little luck for a Monday night surprise.Thanks Joaquin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Got a few flurries where I am building a deck at right now up Pisgah Highway. Sun is out but it is dark looking back towards candler.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Brad P. Finally started lowering his totals for the mtns. Had 4-6 until this morning. Still says 2-4 and that's not happening up my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Hm. I'm surprised Yokel hasn't made his storm appearance yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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