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2016 Mountains & Foothills Fall & Winter Thread


nchighcountrywx

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2 hours ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Unfortunately, the storm on the 6th is continuning to be progged as an apps runner, and the only thing we're left with is wrap around snow. Would like to see some change in that track, but with no cold air in front, wouldn't surprise me if that were to be a likely solution.

I wouldn't worry about something 10 days out currently. 

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3 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The wind is really picking up and temps are starting to fall.

Same here. 

 

If that clipper continues to dig farther west the flow will be more westerly.  Something that would be good for me but hurt you and joe. You should do well before then as the winds are due nw. 

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44 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Same here. 

 

If that clipper continues to dig farther west the flow will be more westerly.  Something that would be good for me but hurt you and joe. You should do well before then as the winds are due nw. 

Yeah we will see what happens. It looks like it could be more westerly which means the balsams would get it more and it would be more for the southern mountains. 

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Such a shame

. Graham County schools (NC)are cancelled tomorrow because the school system uses weather.com,intellicast.com and weather underground for weather forecast..They all say 3-5 inches of snow tomorrow. NWS says 20% chance of flurries.. Partly Sunny!!

It's a shame these outlets can put out such ridiculous forecast that people's livelihood depends on. Has anyone else in WNC checked their local forecast on any of these websites?

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54 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said:

Yep..Me and you know that but 90% of the public does not..Type in Robbinsville,NC on intellicast or weather.com and you will get 3-5 inches of snow tomorrow.. Ridiculous

That's crazy they cancelled school. That is gonna be a terrible day to makeup. 

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I'm sure a few of you have seen this recent article:

http://www.blueridgenow.com/news/20170115/weather-committee-nixes-2016-mount-mitchell-record-snowfall

I wonder who exactly was on this committee? Their results really don't even pass the laugh test.

They decided to use the liquid equivalent that fell at Fletcher(which is town that typically is one of the driest locations in North Carolina) and then adjusted it for the expected snow ratio that Mt. Mitchell had to determine the snowfall amount. As a result, they dropped it down from 41 inches to 21 inches.  It hard to believe that the rangers that have spent years and years measuring snowfall on that mountain top would screw up so badly. Recalling some of the photos that were taken up there, it certainly looked more than 41 than 21.

Further, I wonder if this committee has heard of orographic. enhancement? Did they adjust for that or did it slip their mind? It has been studied very extensively locally and mountain locations often receive double(or more) than the precipitation amount than valley locations if wind is in play and it certainly was during that storm.  

My guess is more likely there was some drifting that inflated the results by few inches but not much more than that.  Over the years, Mt. Mitchell has often received both very high snowfall amounts and rainfall amounts compared to nearby locations; nothing new with that. 

 

 

 

 

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56 minutes ago, MikeGold said:

I'm sure a few of you have seen this recent article:

http://www.blueridgenow.com/news/20170115/weather-committee-nixes-2016-mount-mitchell-record-snowfall

I wonder who exactly was on this committee? Their results really don't even pass the laugh test.

They decided to use the liquid equivalent that fell at Fletcher(which is town that typically is one of the driest locations in North Carolina) and then adjusted it for the expected snow ratio that Mt. Mitchell had to determine the snowfall amount. As a result, they dropped it down from 41 inches to 21 inches.  It hard to believe that the rangers that have spent years and years measuring snowfall on that mountain top would screw up so badly. Recalling some of the photos that were taken up there, it certainly looked more than 41 than 21.

Further, I wonder if this committee has heard of orographic. enhancement? Did they adjust for that or did it slip their mind? It has been studied very extensively locally and mountain locations often receive double(or more) than the precipitation amount than valley locations if wind is in play and it certainly was during that storm.  

My guess is more likely there was some drifting that inflated the results by few inches but not much more than that.  Over the years, Mt. Mitchell has often received both very high snowfall amounts and rainfall amounts compared to nearby locations; nothing new with that. 

 

 

 

 

Great post Mike! Read their explanation and it was truly laughable. Ashame they can so easily debunk without even being there. I am sure the rangers have got an idea how to measure snow as it is not really rocket science.

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1 hour ago, MikeGold said:

I'm sure a few of you have seen this recent article:

http://www.blueridgenow.com/news/20170115/weather-committee-nixes-2016-mount-mitchell-record-snowfall

 

 

 

 

 

That's crazy if you ask me. I know we had over a foot here at around 3500 feet. I know some people had close to 18 inches around here in that storm. It basically snowed on and off for 3 days straight. And to say they applied other measurements around is crazy unless they have multiple sights at over 6000 feet. Sounds political to me. The people up there are professional and know what they are doing.

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24 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Keep us updated. Clouds are moving in and the radar is looking better for maybe some moisture to get in here. 

Yea, im basically in wishcasting mode at this point for snow lol. Good to see some snow falling right now. Still excited for Sunday night, but I'm skeptical on getting more than just a couple of inches.

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33 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

That's crazy if you ask me. I know we had over a foot here at around 3500 feet. I know some people had close to 18 inches around here in that storm. It basically snowed on and off for 3 days straight. And to say they applied other measurements around is crazy unless they have multiple sights at over 6000 feet. Sounds political to me. The people up there are professional and know what they are doing.

I have no idea what the heck went on with that.  If they are going through the bother to review/revise it you would think they could at least base it on real science!  

An example of a proper review can be found here: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/extremes/ncec/mantague-ny-snowfall-24hour.pdf

As you can see, these kind of reviews can be done properly; in this case reviewing a 77 inch 24 hour snowfall report. 

 

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12 hours ago, snowbird1230 said:

Yep..Me and you know that but 90% of the public does not..Type in Robbinsville,NC on intellicast or weather.com and you will get 3-5 inches of snow tomorrow.. Ridiculous

I checked weather this morning shows clear skies and temperature of 43 of a low today no snow report, funny how someone cancels school for this they got it wrong kids are at home and they are gonna see sunshine those school teachers and staff are gonna get grilled for it,cause.tjey cancelled school saying 3-5 inches the sky is clear out there some areas may get some clouds and sun maybe a flurry then gone 

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1 hour ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Yea, im basically in wishcasting mode at this point for snow lol. Good to see some snow falling right now. Still excited for Sunday night, but I'm skeptical on getting more than just a couple of inches.

Yep I'm hoping Asheville will at least have the ground covered.

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