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2016 Mountains & Foothills Fall & Winter Thread


nchighcountrywx

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3 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Alright guys...NAM has a companion in the latest RGEM. That's two down!

Impressive trends this evening. Makes a world of difference when the system is properly initialized!


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It's hard to believe models like the ICON, the NAM, and..the Ukie (maybe?) were the only ones to show a stronger s/w coming across the country. That's our big difference maker right now. Have to see if the GFS catches onto it soon.

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1 minute ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Alright guys...NAM has a companion in the latest RGEM. That's two down!

Impressive trends this evening. Makes a world of difference when the system is properly initialized!


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Yeah we really need a stronger storm to take place to help it move north. If it's week we are screwed. 

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4 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Alright guys...NAM has a companion in the latest RGEM. That's two down!

Impressive trends this evening. Makes a world of difference when the system is properly initialized!


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HT, how is this thing looking out west compared to what the models have shown?

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HT, how is this thing looking out west compared to what the models have shown?



Based on discussion in the main thread and what I saw, morning models were too weak with the wave over the 4 corners. Then 00Z upper air data better sampled the system over far west Texas and eastern New Mexico and boom...turns out our little wave survived the trek across the Rockies far better than most models originally had. So this evenings runs are essentially self-corrections. Good signs for the WNC mountains.

Would like to have seen more precip from the RGEM but at least it ramped things up over its previous runs.
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6 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Lol it can't be right. There is no NW trend.

 

Nope not at all. Even the GFS gives me 7" so I'd take that. Perfect for getting out on the Parkway for some photography on Saturday morning before work and then Sun-Tue since it won't be melting anytime soon ha. 

GFS-7"

4km NAM- 9"

3km NAM-12"

RGEM- ~7-8"

 

 

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Euro has joined the party. .4" QPF IMBY so around that lovely 1/2' mark. Eurowx has ratios 15-18:1. IMO we're in for a good 6-8" storm, maybe a tick higher along/near the escarpment. 

Hope all you guys have a fantastic storm as well. Been fun forecasting through the ups and downs! Still getting used to not having to worry about temps after so many years in GA. :D

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Looks like everything remained status quo last night. Ready to see what happens! SREF plumes remain healthy.

I'm still not optimistic like many on here and expect 1-3 for many mountain/foothill locations. NAM is not nearly as amped as it was last night. Hows our storm looking out west this morning. 

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30 minutes ago, Hvward said:

I am going to go with 3"-6" for most of WNC with 5"-8" along the NC/SC border counties.


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Looks like a good call. I was looking at 6 for mby after the recent runs. The 03z sref held at inches with a cluster either side of that. 

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I am concerned about the snow shadow that's showing up in all the models for Asheville. This is a real feature and must be accounted for.

So, current thinking is 4-8" for all mountain areas.

Downtown AVL will be less, 2-4"

But AVL airport will be 3-6"


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Yeah snow hole has been there for a while but it has been less pronounced over the last few runs. I don't think downtown will see as much as the airport, but I think 3"-6" will be attainable on the lower end.
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