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2016 Mountains & Foothills Fall & Winter Thread


nchighcountrywx

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It's systems like these that remind me why model watching is so addicting. Here we are back close to what the GFS was showing 3-4 days ago. Myself and others have harped on the NW trend and we have watched it commence and we are just a little over a day away. It's crazy to see it happen even when you think it's going to happen and it may not be done yet!


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7 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:

It's systems like these that remind me why model watching is so addicting. Here we are back close to what the GFS was showing 3-4 days ago. Myself and others have harped on the NW trend and we have watched it commence and we are just a little over a day away. It's crazy to see it happen even when you think it's going to happen and it may not be done yet!


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There where some deniers about the NW trend 

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1 minute ago, AirNelson39 said:

 


Many of which were in the sweet spot at the time. I do hate to see a lot of the folks further to the south get their hopes up on this one.


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I don't. They called us whiners for us not getting our fair share and bringing it up about the NW trend. well...some did. I feel bad for the others, sort of.

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1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Most models are showing some type of precip minimum in the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge, think this may be overdone considering the setup but places from Rutherfordton to Lenoir to Wilkesboro may be the biggest losers in this storm unless the NW trend continues. 

 

I can speak for Rutherford. The county would be split in half with the lower section getting the benefit of the WSW flow as the system enters. It will all depend on the fetch as it enters this area. 

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3 things that can happen to increase our snowfall

1. low remains stronger as it enters gulf which will help with number two.

2. the storm turns negative to allow greatly enhanced moisture transport into our region.

3. NW trend. 

3 things that can happen to screw someone

1. dryslot

2. low weakens more than the midday models shows which causes a more suppressed solution similar to the 0z euro.

3. mountains and downsloping.

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21 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said:

Boyer just give update on Twitter..Said the 12Z snow totals were wrong and that he would not be changing his forecast.Said GFS is the outlier.He's still says 1-3" area wide..Starnge

I respect boyer, hes conservative. I cant blame him either.  Im not feeling to confident here along the escarpment due to down sloping lee side dry slotting ect. Ive seen rutherforton cash in in these setups a few times. Good luck strong!!!

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17 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

It may be the outlier but it's the only that's been remotely consistent!

I don't think the GFS is the outlier either, given it's run-to-run consistency.  The NAM is all over the place, the RGEM is all over the place, and the 12Z CMC went SOUTH.  And the German model is an unknown so just something pretty to look at.

I would love to wrap up the GFS and take it home, call 4-7" for AVL and 7-10" for all surrounding mountains (mostly driven by high snow:water ratios).

But but but, since the 00Z Euro (and its EPS) are definitely not yet on board, there is still enough concern for pause.  If the 12Z Euro doesn't join the GFS party, then we will have no choice but to cut into the amounts of the GFS.  Another few hours and we will know what to do.

Sadly  (or not, depending on how you look at it), my original call yesterday morning of 1-3" may yet happen.  Hoping to revise that later today!

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2 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

I don't think the GFS is the outlier either, given it's run-to-run consistency.  The NAM is all over the place, the RGEM is all over the place, and the 12Z CMC went SOUTH.  And the German model is an unknown so just something pretty to look at.

I would love to wrap up the GFS and take it home, call 4-7" for AVL and 7-10" for all surrounding mountains (mostly driven by high snow:water ratios).

But but but, since the 00Z Euro (and its EPS) are definitely not yet on board, there is still enough concern for pause.  If the 12Z Euro doesn't join the GFS party, then we will have no choice but to cut into the amounts of the GFS.  Another few hours and we will know what to do.

Sadly  (or not, depending on how you look at it), my original call yesterday morning of 1-3" may yet happen.  Hoping to revise that later today!

I meant the outlier in terms of totals for WNC. It's definitely been the most consistent. What do you feel is the issue with the Euro's totals for WNC right now?

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2 minutes ago, Meteorhobbyist said:

Sucks to see the Lee side getting robbed. Surry and Wilkes county would be getting 1-2 inches tops, while 10 miles to the east and west of both counties, they would real in at least half foot totals.

If the NW trend were to continue just a little more, the foothills would also be golden.

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14 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

I meant the outlier in terms of totals for WNC. It's definitely been the most consistent. What do you feel is the issue with the Euro's totals for WNC right now?

Euro totals are currently 1/3 of the amount from the GFS.  No agreement on throwback of moisture into the cold air.  CMC is only 1" of snow for the I-40 corridor of WNC.  These figures are disconcerting...mostly because they are stubborn in their own solutions.  The most the Euro has shown for AVL all week is 5" and that was a few days ago.  Every run since has been lower and lower...and now these lower values have EPS support, which has traditionally been a very good tool to rely on.

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