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2016 Mountains & Foothills Fall & Winter Thread


nchighcountrywx

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19 minutes ago, westmc9th said:

The models pull us in and then push us away. Yesterday and last night was a roller coaster of trends. Almost go time anyway. Won't be in Boone for this one. Still hoping my other locale just outside AVL in the foothills can get at least an inch or two!

Yeah this mornings rUn was about like yesterday's18z run. Much improved over 00z. We should expect this little back and forth. Not a bad run at all.

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Also I don't blame GSP for not issuing anything for run yet. We are on a tight gradient here in the mountains. If the system is fast and more south we pay dearly. If it is slow and just a smudge slow then we actually have a great chance of seeing some significant totals. Still very early. The first wave is looking weak also.

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1 hour ago, Timothy Clyde said:

I'm okay with missing the heavy snow but I am a bit jealous of their low temps down east. Weather.com already has Raleigh colder than Boone and I think it will go even colder and smash records. Some of the numbers I'm seeing down there rarely happen even after mountain snowfall.

I'm not okay with that :D. So it's going to snow more than the 0z Euro.

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Morning all!, It looks like a good time for the obligatory "quit hanging on every model run" quote for some. We all want to be in the sweet spot for the white stuff. You guys live in the best place in the deep south for snow.....rejoice! Looking at the model runs and climo and some previous events these are my thoughts. The SE portion of the Mnts are going to jackpot for this system. I think 6+" is a good bet. Higher elevations of the Central Mnts could get in on this action. I think GSP with a general 2-4" is spot on. The thing to remember is the models are trying to predict mother nature and no one or thing can do that. When I lived in Asheville as much as I loved the snow this part "the chase" became my favorite part of the systems we had. So my advice is to enjoy the ride & realize there are going to be winners and losers! Remember though you guys have more opportunity than anyone in the Southeastern forum. Good luck to you all and I hope everyone cashes!

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This is why we love living in the mountains! Lots of uncertainty still. Euro 0z EPS has a 3" snowfall avg compared to the OP that shows 1.5". Euro EPS and OP still struggling so I tend to side with a GFS type solution that has better ensemble support. Many EPS members show a GFS like solution. Hang on this is one is going to be interesting to watch unfold. Surprises are in store I believe.


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4 minutes ago, fritschy said:

Hey guys don't you think we're somewhere in the 3-5 inch range around wnc, surprised we're not in the wsw area, lots of guidance coming in with some nw movements every run

This was what GSP said in last nights disco. Unless there is some drastic change in the midday model runs I suspect you'll se additional Mnt counties added.

 

Accums were based on WPC QPF and snow ratios, and the use of the
Bourgouin energy-area technique to determine the transition from rain
to snow. This produces 3 to 4 inches in the 00z to 12z Sat timeframe,
which meets warning criteria in our Piedmont zones. With confidence
expected only to increase from now to the next shift, we went ahead
and issued a Winter Storm Watch for the SC/GA zones, plus the
southern tier of NC zones from Transylvania east. The mountains and
NW Foothills/Piedmont will see snow, but confidence is not as high up
there given the possibility that the low track will shift slightly
further south; additionally the mountain criteria are 4 inches in 12
hours.
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2 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

This was what GSP said in last nights disco. Unless there is some drastic change in the midday model runs I suspect you'll se additional Mnt counties added.

 


Accums were based on WPC QPF and snow ratios, and the use of the
Bourgouin energy-area technique to determine the transition from rain
to snow. This produces 3 to 4 inches in the 00z to 12z Sat timeframe,
which meets warning criteria in our Piedmont zones. With confidence
expected only to increase from now to the next shift, we went ahead
and issued a Winter Storm Watch for the SC/GA zones, plus the
southern tier of NC zones from Transylvania east. The mountains and
NW Foothills/Piedmont will see snow, but confidence is not as high up
there given the possibility that the low track will shift slightly
further south; additionally the mountain criteria are 4 inches in 12
hours.

Thanks Don, good hearing from you from sunny Florida.

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Morning update from GSP:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM, Per sat pix and obs, mid and high clouds are spreading
in across the area and should cover most of the area today, with
possibly some thinning from time to time. Temps will be slow to
climb today from the low start this morning. Still, the current
forecast already had these trends in place, so only minor changes
needed there. Have increased the sky cover though to account for
current and expected conditions. Radar showing some echoes off to
our west, but it looks like this is mainly clouds and/or virga with
little to no surface precip reports. Therefore, current forecast
with light rain or snow moving into the TN border area late
afternoon or early evening with little to no accums still on track.

Otherwise, looks like we have a little bit more than 24 hours of
relative calm before the weather starts to get really interesting
around the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. The upper flow
should continue to slowly back around to something more
southwesterly in response to gradual height falls over the
Plains/Midwest. A notable feature is a weak wave moving up the OH
River Valley today/tonight coincident with a patch of upper
divergence in the left exit region of a strong upper jet. This
forcing pushes an area of light precip past our region to the north,
which would be in the form of snow. Some of the guidance brings a
chance of snow into the NC mountains during the tonight period.
Current thinking is that amounts will not be significant enough for
an advisory, and the chance is also not high enough to entertain an
advisory. This could still become a problem given the expected temps
in the mid/upper 20s, so we will monitor the development of this
potential pre-event. Otherwise, weak high pressure moving past today
will keep the weather cool and quiet, with increasing/thickening
clouds east of mtns. Temps will top out a bit below normal, and then
tonight should be close to normal again with thickening cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 940 AM EST Thursday:  Given latest model trends favoring
northern expansion of warning level snowfall accumulations, opted to
go ahead and include the Northwest Piedmont of Western NC in the
Winter Storm Watch.  Further adjustments may be needed/made with the
afternoon fcst package.
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Most models are showing some type of precip minimum in the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge, think this may be overdone considering the setup but places from Rutherfordton to Lenoir to Wilkesboro may be the biggest losers in this storm unless the NW trend continues. 

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12z GFS continues the positive trends for us. Is the minimum of snow on the lee side due to expected NWFS in the higher elevations or something on the model?




That is the dreaded dry slot feature trying to show up. May not be as pronounced as some models show but it will pop up over someone. Downtown Asheville and just North sometimes dry slot a tad during these type events as well.
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