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2016 Mountains & Foothills Fall & Winter Thread


nchighcountrywx

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8 minutes ago, Rainforrest said:

Still got a couple more days of model runs to watch. 

With the system now fully onshore and having been sampled by the raob network, I would not expect much in the way of significant changes from the models.  Blend of the GFS/Euro is probably the best approach right now since they seem to be very (very) consistent on their tracks, with the general less amounts in the mountains and much more heavy snow Raleigh east.  This could be the event where Atlanta and Columbia get more snow than Asheville and Boone!

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6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Here in the south I've learned to never underestimate the climo NW trend within 48 hours. It's burned me too many times and it's made me a believer. Hopefully that will help us this time instead of being on the wrong side of it. 

I remember quite a few NW trends within 48 hours after the waves have been sampled. On the other hand, we could absolutely be grasping at straws at this point. However, it's still only Wednesday. I'm not ready to call this one quits.

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Just now, wncsnow said:

Think yall and myself in SVA are in trouble if we are expecting more than a couple inches.. EPS will be interesting but looks like 85 corridor and south will do the best

I'd take a couple inches at this point. I wouldn't expect more than some flakes falling 

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17 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

You SW mountain folk enjoy this one. Not very confident for much here in Boone. Maybe a token inch or two. Gonna be cold though.

Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk
 

We might get a few inches here. Really pulling for the gfs and maybe rainforest and I can get a warning criteria event out of this.

 

Unfortunately this looks like yet another eastern nc storm. They will continue to exceed climo.

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Wow. That de-escalated quickly. No worries people. We'll have other chances in the next few weeks. 

 

I am glad to see some cooler temps coming in though. Just got back from skiing Wolf and the conditions were some of the worst I have ever seen this time of year. Bad snow, no terrain, even the employees are disgusted and in a foul mood. Maybe all the resorts can make some headway the next few days.

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1 minute ago, SnoJoe said:

Wow. That de-escalated quickly. No worries people. We'll have other chances in the next few weeks. 

 

I am glad to see some cooler temps coming in though. Just got back from skiing Wolf and the conditions were some of the worst I have ever seen this time of year. Bad snow, no terrain, even the employees are disgusted and in a foul mood. Maybe all the resorts can make some headway the next few days.

I wouldn't be hanging it up quite yet.

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3 minutes ago, SnoJoe said:

Wow. That de-escalated quickly. No worries people. We'll have other chances in the next few weeks. 

 

I am glad to see some cooler temps coming in though. Just got back from skiing Wolf and the conditions were some of the worst I have ever seen this time of year. Bad snow, no terrain, even the employees are disgusted and in a foul mood. Maybe all the resorts can make some headway the next few days.

Sugar didn't have 5 of their best slopes open when I went last week. It's miserable considering skiing is my favorite hobby. 

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25 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Just not really enough moisture. I don't see how were having that big of an issue. But perfect track though for most of us.

I believe it was deltadog that said the NAM has been having troubles with precip totals this winter. Cheezenado essentially said the same thing in that don't look at the details right now with the NAM but rather the trend.

The trend was good.

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1 minute ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

I believe it was deltadog that said the NAM has been having troubles with moisture this winter. Cheezenado essentially said the same thing in that don't look at the details right now with the NAM but rather the trend.

The trend was good.

Yeah cheez ain't buying that sparce of a look. Me neither. 

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2 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

I know it's TWC but what are they seeing here? Are they putting that much stock in the first wave? This was only posted on their Twitter 15 minutes ago.

 

C1WvAnUUoAAO9vE.jpg:large

I'm telling you. Iv been saying for a few days for us don't sleep on that first wave. Just dont. We will have great trajectory also to enhance the upslope affect.

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7 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

I know it's TWC but what are they seeing here? Are they putting that much stock in the first wave? This was only posted on their Twitter 15 minutes ago.

 

C1WvAnUUoAAO9vE.jpg:large

Well there is not actually any amounts on here, and just based on the models, this actually isn't too out of the question.

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2 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

It's an insinuation of the totals based on precip rates it appears. It surely isn't skimpy on the mountains. Just a little odd given the models today.

We'll the purples down towards asheville make sense with them getting the first wave and a good chunk of the second. It wouldn't surprise me if the northern counties did well with the first band. That's just my thinking anyway.

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