nchighcountrywx Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 21 minutes ago, westmc9th said: Why is there such a dry slot in the foothills on the Euro? Good trend though for sure. Lower Foothills values likely due to mountains having oragraphic lifting as well as higher snow ratios. This is certainly not all ironed out yet to a most likely solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 Latest KGSP map for most likely snowfall Monitor for changes .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 0z EPS was a big step in the right my direction 25 member with 3" or more for KAVL compared to just 8-10 over the last run and 4-5 members the run before that. With all the varying solutions, I am tending to side with the EPS this morning because this is right in its wheelhouse 3-4 days out. I said a few days ago that I have watch the EPS doing a complete turn before and that if we want significant snowfall than we wanted the EPS to start showing it. From last nights run that's exactly what happened. EPS mean of 3.25" with 5 big dog members of 10"+. Wow today is going to be interesting and very telling, anyone throwing in the towel on this one needs to step away from the keyboard and revisit on Friday because the next few days will not be for the weak at heart! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 56 minutes ago, Hvward said: 0z EPS was a big step in the right my direction 25 member with 3" or more for KAVL compared to just 8-10 over the last run and 4-5 members the run before that. With all the varying solutions, I am tending to side with the EPS this morning because this is right in its wheelhouse 3-4 days out. I said a few days ago that I have watch the EPS doing a complete turn before and that if we want significant snowfall than we wanted the EPS to start showing it. From last nights run that's exactly what happened. EPS mean of 3.25" with 5 big dog members of 10"+. Wow today is going to be interesting and very telling, anyone throwing in the towel on this one needs to step away from the keyboard and revisit on Friday because the next few days will not be for the weak at heart! 06Z GFS still not going to cut it for snow in the mountains. It still has Atlanta with nearly 5" and over 6" amounts down east NC. Water vapor this morning shows one piece of energy just making it ashore in western Oregon and far northern California, with an atmospheric river event occurring in central California and the greater Bay Area. These features will be sampled at 12Z today, but don't expect the 12Z models to fully latch onto them until at least 00Z this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Sorry I'm late to the party! I'm here now and that should tell you all something. Robert (WxSouth) has been tweeting about the set up for this system. Climo says the low will ride closer to the coast down here in the Panhandle. As always with a complicated weather system, when isn't this the case in the South, the pieces have to come together just right. The interaction or lack of interaction between the energy to the N and S will tell the tale. Gonna be a fun ride for you Mnt folk!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Looking at this am gfs the southern mountains look good to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 16 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: Looking good! This thing is going to continue to jog NW if I were a betting man. We're sitting pretty right now, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 06Z GFS still not going to cut it for snow in the mountains. It still has Atlanta with nearly 5" and over 6" amounts down east NC. Water vapor this morning shows one piece of energy just making it ashore in western Oregon and far northern California, with an atmospheric river event occurring in central California and the greater Bay Area. These features will be sampled at 12Z today, but don't expect the 12Z models to fully latch onto them until at least 00Z this evening.Yeah HT lots of variability, better sampling is about to occur so as you alluded to a better picture will arise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 hour ago, Rainforrest said: Looking at this am gfs the southern mountains look good to go. Yeah I definitely think the SW mountains are the best place to be currently in our area. The NW TREND will continue. If the euro and eps hold serve it's game over for all other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 37 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: Big Don! Yep looks better and better each run. Should see more improvement today for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 15 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Big Don! Yep looks better and better each run. Should see more improvement today for our area. NAM already looks better out to 48, with that wave coming on shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 37 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: NAM already looks better out to 48, with that wave coming on shore. Yeah it did. I'm afraid as we trend back NW that along the coast are going to warm up to mix in. I'm not so sure they get that much snow wit a more amped system. I'm rooting for them but the trends are in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah it did. I'm afraid as we trend back NW that along the coast are going to warm up to mix in. I'm not so sure they get that much snow wit a more amped system. I'm rooting for them but the trends are in our favor. Yep, good for us, bad for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Wow seems to be thinking the same thing: 'I agree. I'm quite confident the next run will have a more amped up storm. Since the wave is now faster and we're getting more ahead of the HP, this will look more like a Miller A with a SW to NE snow axis and the r/s line closer in.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, BlueRidgeFolklore said: Wow seems to be thinking the same thing: 'I agree. I'm quite confident the next run will have a more amped up storm. Since the wave is now faster and we're getting more ahead of the HP, this will look more like a Miller A with a SW to NE snow axis and the r/s line closer in.' Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Cool I actually get snow now on the 12z GFS. getting one step closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The EPS improvement was already mentioned but here's a side-by-side of individual members for Boone. Really significant increase in both mean and "big" members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The GFS has been hinting at some type of lee enhancement from the SW mtns down into the upstate into NEGA where there is a precip maximum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 New GFS say congrats rainforest! Really liking these trends I think the precip shield continues to expand N and W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Yep continued good trends. See the good thing to remember we actually get two waves. Again don't sleep on the first wave here in the mountains. Yes the NW trend will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Hope they continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 23 minutes ago, Hvward said: New GFS say congrats rainforest! Really liking these trends I think the precip shield continues to expand N and W. I really think WNC is sitting pretty with this storm right now. The ever closer creeping precip field and no temp issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I really think WNC is sitting pretty with this storm right now. The ever closer creeping precip field and no temp issues.Yep we have been here before and everyone who posts in this thread is keeping their composure like pros haha I love it. Good job guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 11 minutes ago, Hvward said: Yep we have been here before and everyone who posts in this thread is keeping their composure like pros haha I love it. Good job guys. I like almost everyone in this thread. Have fun, but keep their heads straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I would feel more comfortable if the storm was getting its act together sooner and have the precip blossom over nw ga before it moved inot nc. That would help enhance it with the upslope potential in the southern mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Yea, 12Z euro is basically a swing and a miss for us mountain folk. Some token flakes here and there, but a big cut compared to the 00Z runs. Again, down east NC seems to be the winner (run after run after run), so would hedge bets accordingly. First guess: WNC mountains 1-3" including the AVL area (but more south and east), less north and west towards the TN line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Hmm...Euro going south is not what I expected at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I'm afraid that was our last gasp for a good snow up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 GFS Para big jump NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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