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Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

USCAPEWEATHERAF

By USCAPEWEATHERAF,
in New England

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Not for nothing but that amount of time seems long...

It's true though.   

This storm, although cat 1 at landfall was significant. 

It's clear from local reports that Matthew definitely did some serious damage but the national media is too focused on stupid one and stupid two running for president. 

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It's true though.   

This storm, although cat 1 at landfall was significant. 

It's clear from local reports that Matthew definitely did some serious damage but the national media is too focused on stupid one and stupid two running for president. 

I know it it true.  Just seems like a very long time between majors.  I wonder what the record is

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I know it it true.  Just seems like a very long time between majors.  I wonder what the record is

Don't know but the past 10 years are definitely a drought. 

 

 
Period Number of recorded storms
affecting United States
1850s 17
1860s 15
1870s 19
1880s 25
1890s 20
1900–1909 17
1910s 21
1920s 15
1930s 18
1940s 23
1950s 20
1960s 15
1970s 12
1980s 17
1990s 15
2000–2009 19
2010s 6

 

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, monadnocks said:

I've been following what's been going on in Raleigh today with my son down there. Power's been out since late morning. His apartment complex had water flowing through the ground floor walkways. Many of the roads are closed. Just a mess.

It is a sh!t show across the Eastern Carolinas tonight.  Tomorrow morning is going to shed light on how bad this actually is. 

We saw this with Irene up here. Many said "oh' that wasn't so bad" while W NE and E NY drowned. 

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Dan76

Dan76

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It is a sh!t show across the Eastern Carolinas tonight.  Tomorrow morning is going to shed light on how bad this actually is. 

We saw this with Irene up here. Many said "oh' that wasn't so bad" while W NE and E NY drowned. 

Thinking the same thing,places that weren't supposed to get it bad .........

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Thinking the same thing,places that weren't supposed to get it bad .........

Those heavy rain bands have not moved. I'm seeing reports of 12-14" on the NC-SC border.    The flooding won't be understood by many until sunrise.  Unfortunately, I think there are going to be some tragedies in the news tomorrow. 

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah much better than earlier this week, but still the GFS has been lagging by almost double the average position error of the Euro. 

That may be true, but qualitatively in terms of the general track, along the Carolina coast, I think the Euro was way off the mark. No stall out; and no recurve south as it had been repeatedly showing. This proved to be a significant error for much of South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and now even into Delaware; and who knows that area may have to be expanded further north and east before all is said and done. It gave many people a false sense of confidence when all globals then trended towards it, only to back-track to the original general consensus.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The gfs has the loop too for multiple runs. In fact the euro abandoned it and the gfs still had it a few days ago. Both models actually had it at 12z Friday but the ensemble spread was there.

 

 

 

 

I understand that. That was my point above--all globals including the GFS eventually trended towards the euro. But the euro was --by far-- the most steadfast at that critical forecasting period pretty much from day 6 to day 2 showing the recurve south and stalling with little impact to most of South Carolina on north.

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bairn

bairn

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I understand that. That was my point above--all globals including the GFS eventually trended towards the euro. But the euro was --by far-- the most steadfast at that critical forecasting period pretty much from day 6 to day 2 showing the recurve south and stalling with little impact to most of South Carolina on north.

Hi guys, please bear with me here, but is the heavy rain shield from Matt not moving much further north than originally progged? 

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

Early last week it looked like Matthew would come up the coast.   Then for most of the week it was pretty clear it would not get up to New England.  The remains of the center will nott but I am surprised to see that the remnant rain shield has made it as far NW as it did.  I expected a few showers with the fropa which we had last night but now the steady rainshield has  made it up to me. I expected today to be steadily clearing from the NW which is not happening.  Wish the shield had gotten about 100 miles further NW to give more of New England substantial rain.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I understand that. That was my point above--all globals including the GFS eventually trended towards the euro. But the euro was --by far-- the most steadfast at that critical forecasting period pretty much from day 6 to day 2 showing the recurve south and stalling with little impact to most of South Carolina on north.

I think there is also an inherent hazard when dealing with a named storm that people focus in so much on the center of the system. Sometimes at the cost of ignoring or missing other signals.

I was fairly lucky that direct impacts from Matthew were pretty much nil for my forecast area and I was able to focus on things like this:  

departing jet streak will reside over the Canadian Maritimes with
the right entrance region enhancing lift over or very close to New
England. I say over or very close because the 05.12z GFS and ECMWF
differ in placement of the features. The ECMWF is farther N with
the jet streak and eventually with Matthew...which allows more
moisture to make it closer to the forecast area. Entraining any
moisture from Matthew coupled with the jet streak circulation
could wring out a band of rnfl...even more so than model guidance
currently shows.

There was always a chance we were going to draw more moisture north than was forecast. And I would argue that for a while now the Carolinas have been in the cross hairs for significant heavy rain impacts, let alone possible landfall. I just find it hard to declare the GFS a winner in any significant way about this system.

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