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Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England


USCAPEWEATHERAF

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Charlie South is going to be a mess in a few hours. Not only is the tide starting to come back up, you have the storm surge (which was 6 feet according to the tide gauge a couple hours ago), but you also have the rainfall runoff coming down the rivers with nowhere to drain as the tide/surge come up.

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Charlie South is going to be a mess in a few hours. Not only is the tide starting to come back up, you have the storm surge (which was 6 feet according to the tide gauge a couple hours ago), but you also have the rainfall runoff coming down the rivers with nowhere to drain as the tide/surge come up.

Yeah that area in SC looks like a real mess right now. 

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It will be interesting to see what happens with Matthew as he emerges off the Carolina's. If that recurve south west doesn't materialize, I think the Euro loses this contest handily against the GFS. If you look back to the NHC's forecast cone from Tuesday a.m., which was built largely around the GFS, you will see a fantastic forecast more than 4 days out. 

It's a shame we all got thrown off by subsequent runs of all the globals which trended towards the Euro--with the hard left into South Fla., then hard right out to sea-- only to  gradually fade back to the original consensus from earlier in the week.

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The day 4 and 5 forecasts from Brian Tang still show the euro has beating the Gfs by a decent margin although the errors are a bit closer. 

Yeah much better than earlier this week, but still the GFS has been lagging by almost double the average position error of the Euro. 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

lOl thanks by the way I am now addicted to the shark cam underneath

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Ha, that is pretty cool. I wish it was live during the storm to see what it looks like.

So this is just a slightly more industrial version of my overwater bungalow in Bora Bora. 

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14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Holy crap on the waves out there

Given the 21 foot significant wave height an hour or so ago, you can estimate that the largest wave in a set were around 31 or 32 feet, and the theoretical max around 42 feet.

Of course that water is "only" 50ish feet deep, so shoaling could probably account for even larger (and steeper) waves. Hence the name Frying Pan Shoals. 

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51 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Given the 21 foot significant wave height an hour or so ago, you can estimate that the largest wave in a set were around 31 or 32 feet, and the theoretical max around 42 feet.

Of course that water is "only" 50ish feet deep, so shoaling could probably account for even larger (and steeper) waves. Hence the name Frying Pan Shoals. 

sweet Web cam

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Interesting fact gleaned from the latest DISCO: "Aircraft reconnaissance and land-based radar data indicate that the center of circulation has crossed the coast of South Carolina near the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge".

Landfall intensity was category 2 at 105mph.

By show of weenies, who knows which town the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge is????

Bueller.....?

Too late- 

Awendah, SC....immediately next to the the tiny town of McClellanville, SC...made infamous during the landfall of category 4, 140mph Hurricane Huge in 1989.

Just an interesting piece of cane history.

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