Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

Anyone hear from Josh in a while? How's he making out?

6 hours ago

@TornadoGreg I didn't hunker down. I was out and about the entire storm. (I had special clearance.)

(most recent tweet).  

[OceanStWx]

Trident Pier clearly had storm surge flooding until the eye passed  nearby and winds shifted to offshore, pushing the water away. Now they are showing a storm surge again, and I'm wondering if they are getting higher water from the other direction as floodwater inland is pushed back out to sea.

[MarkO]

The 100 year 24 hour rainfall distribution maps have that area at about a foot of rain. Type III rainfall distribution (I believe is a hurricane) http://www.lmnoeng.com/RainfallMaps/RainfallMaps.htm

I believe that's the approximate rainfall expectation from this storm. BUT, I don't believe that storm factors in storm surge.

[CoastalWx]

The freshwater flooding SC and NC are gonna be pretty significant since that area has been wet.

[ORH_wxman]

23 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Aside from Drudge and Limbaugh, we also have David Allen of MSNBC and the big kahuna herself, HRC, linking Hermine to extreme weather due to climate change. All sides of the spectrum speak in hyperbole.

That's why we come here, to get fact. At least we try to.

The media and politicians are largely ignorant of extreme weather attribution and the general climatology surrounding it. A non-right angle storm is going to produce moderate surge in JAX, which is pretty bad...but it can be a lot worse there, and most probably are pretty ignorant of how bad it could really be if the storm came in from a ESE angle. This will be bad, but they dodged a scenario which could have been so much worse.

 

Likewise, stuff like California drought...the 20th century was literally one of the wettest centuries in California in the past 1,000 years...yet, most of the infrastructure there was designed to assume the 20th century was normal. You see them freak out over a 2-3 year drought...but a 10 year drought that is way worse than what they have seen would not be all that uncommon historically speaking. It can get so much worse, and we don't need climate change for it to happen either.

I think being aware of climatology is probably one of the most important pieces of information people can have whether it's for policy-makers or just people trying to protect their homes and themselves...but unfortunately, it's not really a topic many are interested in discussing.

 

Anyways, not to derail this thread too much. Almost looks like the eye is drfitng due north now...maybe even trying to go a hint E of due north. That would be good for JAX to SE GA/SC...keeping the eyewall as far away as possible.

[OceanStWx]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Anyways, not to derail this thread too much. Almost looks like the eye is drfitng due north now...maybe even trying to go a hint E of due north. That would be good for JAX to SE GA/SC...keeping the eyewall as far away as possible.

I mean it's still finding ways to avoid making landfall.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The freshwater flooding SC and NC are gonna be pretty significant since that area has been wet.

I would say freshwater flooding in N FL is probably becoming significant at this point. 

[MarkO]

I think the flooding will be worse in St. Augustine. Seems to be more homes in the flood zones. They're probably older homes that pre-date building in the flood zones. 

[OceanStWx]

Pretty cool satellite pictures of the sand churned up in the Bahamas.

Today:

10/2

[Ginx snewx]

Man according to the Euro those NE Florida beaches are hammerred with constant NE gale force winds all next week

[wxeyeNH]

Meanwhile in Haiti the death toll is rising sharply.  Reuters reporting 842 confirmed dead.  It will continue to rise.  Just awful.  I guess if the storm had hit them  75 miles further east it would have been even worse.  I can't imagine so many poor people that had so little now have nothing.  We are so fortunate to live in the US.  I'm watching The Weather Channel and they are talking about the hectic situation at Disney World and showing  the damage of awnings and pieces of roof tiles blowing off roofs and I think of village after village in Haiti  that are totally flattened.  Whole populations with little  food to eat or water to drink.  I'm sure many on that island went to bed and didn't even know a hurricane was approaching.

[Dan]

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Dan said:

 

My sister lives across the marsh from that beach

[Hazey]

Meanwhile in Haiti the death toll is rising sharply.  Reuters reporting 842 confirmed dead.  It will continue to rise.  Just awful.  I guess if the storm had hit them  75 miles further east it would have been even worse.  I can't imagine so many poor people that had so little now have nothing.  We are so fortunate to live in the US.  I'm watching The Weather Channel and they are talking about the hectic situation at Disney World and showing  the damage of awnings and pieces of roof tiles blowing off roofs and I think of village after village in Haiti  that are totally flattened.  Whole populations with little  food to eat or water to drink.  I'm sure many on that island went to bed and didn't even know a hurricane was approaching.

Yeah a real shame. I guess it wasn't a bust for them. Only wish it was sadly:(.

[Ginx snewx]

Little biatch is tightening up

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=JAX-N0Q-1-48

[CTWeatherFreak]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Little biatch is tightening up

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=JAX-N0Q-1-48

Also looks like its moving due north, doesnt it?

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

Also looks like its moving due north, doesnt it?

Yea i'd be nervous on the GA SC coast right now, whoevers in that right front quad, winds, surge, tornadoes

[CTWeatherFreak]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea i'd be nervous on the GA SC coast right now, whoevers in that right front quad, winds, surge, tornadoes

That quadrant could well be aimed at Charleston.  How amazing would it be if it continued to follow the coast, not more than 30mi offshore, all the way to the sc/nc border, before it starts to either loop, or move off into the Atlantic?   If one didnt know better, it would be very tempting to say there was something about the interaction between the land and the Hurricane which kept it's eye just offshore despite the bend in the coast.

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said:

That quadrant could well be aimed at Charleston.  How amazing would it be if it continued to follow the coast, not more than 30mi offshore, all the way to the sc/nc border, before it starts to either loop, or move off into the Atlantic?   If one didnt know better, it would be very tempting to say there was something about the interaction between the land and the Hurricane which kept it's eye just offshore despite the bend in the coast.

There is some truth to frictional effects

[wxeyeNH]

22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

There is some truth to frictional effects

Ginx,  the models really did a fantastic job days out.  Really forecasted this track when it was way down south of Haiti.  I'd have to go back and look.  Of course the track being 100 miles east or west made all the difference but the idea of a Florida approach, the slow turn up the coast and then NNE was fantastic in my opinion. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

A Family friend had a relative who lost his house, in port Au Prince I chit you not. So yea, the tiburon pennisula closer to the LF was crushed.

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

A Family friend had a relative who lost his house, in port Au Prince I chit you not. So yea, the tiburon pennisula closer to the LF was crushed.

cat4/5 damage, unreal  https://goo.gl/kaYMXo 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, Dan said:

With that storm seeming to stall very near St Augustine.  They could be in for some big trouble.  This is what the storm will be remembered for in Florida.

the entire state of florida is in 10,000 year flood plain 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Dam man, thats messed up. Not cool at all,painful results.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The media and politicians are largely ignorant of extreme weather attribution and the general climatology surrounding it. A non-right angle storm is going to produce moderate surge in JAX, which is pretty bad...but it can be a lot worse there, and most probably are pretty ignorant of how bad it could really be if the storm came in from a ESE angle. This will be bad, but they dodged a scenario which could have been so much worse.

 

Likewise, stuff like California drought...the 20th century was literally one of the wettest centuries in California in the past 1,000 years...yet, most of the infrastructure there was designed to assume the 20th century was normal. You see them freak out over a 2-3 year drought...but a 10 year drought that is way worse than what they have seen would not be all that uncommon historically speaking. It can get so much worse, and we don't need climate change for it to happen either.

I think being aware of climatology is probably one of the most important pieces of information people can have whether it's for policy-makers or just people trying to protect their homes and themselves...but unfortunately, it's not really a topic many are interested in discussing.

 

Anyways, not to derail this thread too much. Almost looks like the eye is drfitng due north now...maybe even trying to go a hint E of due north. That would be good for JAX to SE GA/SC...keeping the eyewall as far away as possible.

 

this is an interesting perspective, Will, one i had not considered.   From outside the box, a lot of the histrionics we encounter in media and meme alike, are likely biased to those being affected - like it must be the end of the world because I ....  But, how do these events in nature, be it an eof 5 tornado where one seemingly should not take place, or a Canary Island bifurcation event that sends a 500 ft tsunamis into the Eastern Seaboard, stack up against geologic time scales ... ?  Intuitively, California has certainly gone through century long dry spells that are mirror in amplitude to the wetness of the 20th century - but timing is everything too.  Like, less moisture, more evenly distributed over the span may be less injurious to an 'over-bloated' and bad idea of a demographic infrastructure (to begin with) than having almost no rain in 5 or 6 years...  So yes, these things have to qualified, absolutely. 

we all know - or certainly should - that small modulations in the overall climate can have ginormous implications on some smaller scale location(s) within that larger domain - that's just duh-level mathematics.  But it's a perspective and reality that's lost in the din of dramatic dogma - 

that all said, we shouldn't downplay the plausible implications (not that you are...just sayn') of climate change, because those who ignore that odd whirring sound usually get hit by the proverbial train.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

In my humble, weather novice opinion, Charleston SC is in big trouble. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Hard to differentiate between satellite illusion and truth but it looks like over the last two hours it's edging east of  N.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hard to differentiate between satellite illusion and truth but it looks like over the last two hours it's edging east of  N.

Yeah, looks a bit like that but the curve of the coast might be greater than any E jog to save E SC. 

[donsutherland1]

On 10/6/2016 at 10:00 AM, OceanStWx said:

Staffing shortages play into it (not enough time for training when you are covering vacant shifts), but there is also an old dog/new tricks aspect too. Some still prefer the "model of the day" method of building a forecast. 

Matthew has been both a good and bad example of why that doesn't work. If you picked the Euro, your forecast would have been pretty spot on. If you had picked the GFS (which many do because it's free and has the highest resolution) not so much.

Absolutely. I strongly agree with all of this.

[HIPPYVALLEY]