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Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

This is why we need to be careful about dire, end of the world statements when there are questions about landfall. 

 

39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You actually had people and mets on air saying, "You are going to die." I can't make this stuff up. 

Yeah, I would really prefer if our best method to motivate people could stop being "you're going to die!"

It may be effective the first time someone hears it, but the second time you get the cat guy who calls us a bunch of blowhards. 

There is no one size fits all approach. Everyone has their own thresholds for evacuation or shelter in place. We just need to provide the best information possible, educate the public on potential outcomes, and let them decide for themselves. I'm guessing at this point we've done a very poor job of explaining what a reasonable worst case scenario (like all NHC forecasts) actually is.

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15 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

The elected mayors and governors did an outstanding job with this in my opinion. While it's easy to Monday morning quarterback everything I will tell you that Katrina had a wide ranging impact on evacuations. No one wants to be Ray Nagan trying to evacuate a million residents 24 hours before a storm makes landfall and have that end in the loss of over 1600 residents. In addition, the Meteorologist in Charge of the New Orleans National Weather Service Office at the time was widely praised for his super catastrophic warning to the public prior to landfall. In fact, I am pretty sure he won a few awards for it. In many cases, super graphic warnings are what is needed to grab attention and in several cases, such warnings are later adopted into standard operating procedure for the organization. The 1999 "Tornado Emergency" for Moore and Newcastle Oklahoma come to mind as examples. There you had an employee who felt he needed to do something more than just release a standard tornado warning. He needed a hook to grab attention. And it worked. From an emergency manager perspective, one super annoying issue with storms and public perception is unless the storm effects you or your family at the highest level advertised in the warning, it will be considered a false alarm. Meanwhile, the neighbor two blocks away lost there home and everything in it but because it wasn't you or your house, then it was an over exaggeration.

New Orleans was right for the wrong reasons. Wasn't the catastrophic wording for winds? Everyone media person was saying NBD immediately after the winds let up...then the flood news came.

 I don't think E FL is below sea level either. 

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

New Orleans was right for the wrong reasons. Wasn't the catastrophic wording for winds? Everyone media person was saying NBD immediately after the winds let up...then the flood news came.

 I don't think E FL is below sea level either. 

Here is the actual statement

 

Quote
000
WWUS74 KLIX 281550
NPWLIX

URGENT — WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28, 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH... RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES
AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

 

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8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

New Orleans was right for the wrong reasons. Wasn't the catastrophic wording for winds? Everyone media person was saying NBD immediately after the winds let up...then the flood news came.

 I don't think E FL is below sea level either. 

You also had an approaching storm slamming into a major city at a perpendicular trajectory. It was a pretty easy call to give the warning like this. Well, general warning about impacts etc. Wind wasn't as bad obviously. But we knew it would be bad.

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6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

New Orleans was right for the wrong reasons. Wasn't the catastrophic wording for winds? Everyone media person was saying NBD immediately after the winds let up...then the flood news came.

 I don't think E FL is below sea level either. 

Yeah, you can read the statement posted, no mention of flooding/surge. Now may have been contained in another product at the time, but this is the statement that got all the attention and it was basically totally wrong.

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Man, I dont post but really enjoy following smart weather folks here. I know my limitations so I don't offer anything regarding forecasts. HOWEVER, regarding this discussion over warnings regarding potential life threatening weather conditions, I have been in a room with a governor making an ultimate call about what to say, what actions to take. It is a very lonely place when decisions are made on best available information but far from certain. Sorry, but you want to be responsible for being so "even handed" that folks don't react and take action?. everyone recognizes the moral hazard of " crying wolf"  but Florida officials handled this completely correctly. Really folks?!? a thirty mile change in track of eye wall could have been hugely significant. I guess one thing I have learned from following board is that our ability to forecast with that precision doesn't exist just yet. Be humble  if you haven't been in the position of " making the call" and the responsibility and possible consequence that comes with that.

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11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

They were consistently showing Matthew remaining offshore for the last day or two of runs, Some need to go back and trust there resources that they have at hand instead of getting sucked in by the hype

But Euro did have a Port Canaveral LF on the 12z run yesterday.  I'd say that was some pretty strong guidance.

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4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

But Euro did have a Port Canaveral LF on the 12z run yesterday.  I'd say that was some pretty strong guidance.

 The globals did yesterday. But you could see by satellite and radar that it was starting to look less likely. I even made the comment that it was verifying east of consensus.

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But Euro did have a Port Canaveral LF on the 12z run yesterday.  I'd say that was some pretty strong guidance.



Sure, And you usually cant discount the Euro, But it shouldn't have been leaned on exclusively as it ended up being on the western side of guidance as it looks like some agency's did


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

 The globals did yesterday. But you could see by satellite and radar that it was starting to look less likely. I even made the comment out it was verifying east of consensus.

That's fine but the message needed to be out well in advance of the storm so people can make the decisions to evacuate or prepare their homes for a hit.  24h is not enough time to me.  2-3 days is a better timeframe.  I'd hedge on the side of caution and preparedness than to say the storm will be a run of the mill hurricane.  

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah, you can read the statement posted, no mention of flooding/surge. Now may have been contained in another product at the time, but this is the statement that got all the attention and it was basically totally wrong.

Totally wrong? Are you kidding me? Katrina was a Cat 5 Hurricane at the time that was written. Not a single Met had any idea that dry air would enter the circulation forcing a weakening to Cat 3 at landfall. Not a single human being on this earth called that. On an interesting side note however, that statement and the rosary he was wearing when he wrote it is now in the Smithsonian Museum of American History. 

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4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

That's fine but the message needed to be out well in advance of the storm so people can make the decisions to evacuate or prepare their homes for a hit.  24h is not enough time to me.  2-3 days is a better timeframe.  I'd hedge on the side of caution and preparedness than to say the storm will be a run of the mill hurricane.  

Well you had a warning out so that's your decision if you want to leave or stay. That's not the issue. The speaking of absolutes of how you will have no home left, death, immense human suffering, uninhabitble for weeks and months, are the issues. And this was stated it would extend well inland.  Who are we to make those claims? It's completely irresponsible to time and time again...over and over give the worst case scenarios on situations that have questions on tracks that may give only a glancing blow.

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I don't think anyone is saying to downplay the storm. You can give a good urgent warning without telling people they are going to die and most people will take the stern warning seriously. You cannot appease everyone. As dendrite said, there are always going to be Darwin candidates and they are in the extreme minority. Don't word your products toward trying convince a small group of Darwin contenders because then you end up eroding trust with the other 90% of your audience. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't think anyone is saying to downplay the storm. You can give a good urgent warning without telling people they are going to die and most people will take the stern warning seriously. You cannot appease everyone. As dendrite said, there are always going to be Darwin candidates and they are in the extreme minority. Don't word your products toward trying convince a small group of Darwin contenders because then you end up eroding trust with the other 90% of your audience. 

That's exactly what is happening.

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Just now, Master of Disaster said:

Totally wrong? Are you kidding me? Katrina was a Cat 5 Hurricane at the time that was written. Not a single Met had any idea that dry air would enter the circulation forcing a weakening to Cat 3 at landfall. Not a single human being on this earth called that. On an interesting side note however, that statement and the rosary he was wearing when he wrote it is now in the Smithsonian Museum of American History. 

It was wrong. That is a fact. Sounds great, but it didn't come to fruition. Calling for high rise buildings to near the point of collapse is awfully extreme.

And despite what Katrina looked like in the Gulf, nobody really had any clue what it would ultimately do. Tropical systems are fairly unstable, especially at those strengths. Remember not only was the strength forecast off, but the track was forecast for NoLa and it ended up coming ashore east of there, again sparing the city the big winds. Overall the track forecast was excellent from several days out, but that late shift of a few miles really took the wind threat down for NoLa.

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Guess I don't tune in enough to the TV or social media to get a full scope of this nonsense.  I watched about 15 min of news the last few days and saw them talking about it and than I saw the one Fox outlet getting called out for the hyperbole of your going to die.  I guess its easier for me to just ignore.

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A very small sample, but from the friends I have heard from in Florida so far, I have not yet heard one peep blaming mets/warnings/media .  They are all saying they are

a) still nervous

b)- thankful/grateful

perhaps some griping will occur later. But so what. They "hunkered down" for a night, bought extra plywood and booze, or went to a hotel or family's for a night or two.

Some businesses will lose some money by being closed but boo friggin hoo.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't think anyone is saying to downplay the storm. You can give a good urgent warning without telling people they are going to die and most people will take the stern warning seriously. You cannot appease everyone. As dendrite said, there are always going to be Darwin candidates and they are in the extreme minority. Don't word your products toward trying convince a small group of Darwin contenders because then you end up eroding trust with the other 90% of your audience. 

It's part of my worry with the NWS. We're are moving more and more towards the messaging aspect of the weather, which is fine, but it can't come at the expense of the forecast. Let's nail the forecast down first, before trying to convince everyone to leave their home. We should give our best briefing to the local, state, and federal decision makers, and they can decide when and how people need to move.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It was wrong. That is a fact. Sounds great, but it didn't come to fruition. Calling for high rise buildings to near the point of collapse is awfully extreme.

And despite what Katrina looked like in the Gulf, nobody really had any clue what it would ultimately do. Tropical systems are fairly unstable, especially at those strengths. Remember not only was the strength forecast off, but the track was forecast for NoLa and it ended up coming ashore east of there, again sparing the city the big winds. Overall the track forecast was excellent from several days out, but that late shift of a few miles really took the wind threat down for NoLa.

We are in absolute agreement there. I would rather not hijack this thread with warning and evacuation discussion since the storm is still off the coast. I would rather a separate topic for that but ehhh, Ill leave that to the mods to make a decision on. 

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And the media is just pouring gasoline on everything. Dear God...what I heard yesterday from reporters and unfortunately mets. "Nothing like we have seen in decades, Worse than Charley, up there with Andrew, death, a storm you will remember and your kids will remember..." just constant saturation of armageddon. What are we doing nowadays? 

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13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And the media is just pouring gasoline on everything. Dear God...what I heard yesterday from reporters and unfortunately mets. "Nothing like we have seen in decades, Worse than Charley, up there with Andrew, death, a storm you will remember and your kids will remember..." just constant saturation of armageddon. What are we doing nowadays? 

The DIT way for weather.  

It sucks it's come to that.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Coast Guard/NOAA will have some clean up work to do tracking down buoys set adrift.

plot_wave.png

I hated that job working buoys. It never failed we would hook it up with the crane and then have it sink along side the ship with the crane hook still attached. I have a video of one we worked somewhere that snapped a 6" polypropylene tow line going under.  

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THE PEAK WIND ACROSS THE AREA WAS GUST TO 107 MPH NEAR THE TIP OF CAPE 
CANAVERAL AT 620 AM. OTHER HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED
IN SATELLITE BEACH AND THE NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY COAST.

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34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 The globals did yesterday. But you could see by satellite and radar that it was starting to look less likely. I even made the comment that it was verifying east of consensus.

The same thing happened with the blizzard 2 years ago when you had NWS still posting graphics about apocalyptic 24-36" snow totals from NYC to S VT when Mets and knowledgeable posters (Messenger comes to mind) in the SNE forum had been saying no way for hours.

Hype may be part of it but also limitations at NWS offices in terms of limited staffing etc and the ability to constantly update websites and social media could be part of the issue.  That's just a guess on my part.  

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46 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

Totally wrong? Are you kidding me? Katrina was a Cat 5 Hurricane at the time that was written. Not a single Met had any idea that dry air would enter the circulation forcing a weakening to Cat 3 at landfall. Not a single human being on this earth called that. On an interesting side note however, that statement and the rosary he was wearing when he wrote it is now in the Smithsonian Museum of American History. 

Heh. So the guy was awarded for a forecast that was very wrong. It's like buying a NAM run that crushes you with the CCB only to have the Euro's deformation (that you don't see via QPF) hit you with 1-3ft. Joe Public says great call, but deep down you know you got away with one. 

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I find it extremely weird, we have had stronger hurricanes than this hit Florida. I think it could be part of their man is causing climate change agenda, and the government knows what's best for us.Im sorry, I'm an individual woman, and the govt doesn't make decisions concerning my life.

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3 minutes ago, ashesj said:

I find it extremely weird, we have had stronger hurricanes than this hit Florida. I think it could be part of their man is causing climate change agenda, and the government knows what's best for us.Im sorry, I'm an individual woman, and the govt doesn't make decisions concerning my life.

I generally agree that it's up to the individual to make decisions concerning the safety of themselves and their families, but I wholeheartedly disagree with the idea that these forecasters have any agenda other than saving lives. These people care deeply about their craft, and I think on the whole they understand the stakes in situations like this.

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