Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

[Baroclinic Zone]

Euro going with a Melbourne/Port Canaveral LF. ~954mb.

[Cold Miser]

10 minutes ago, shad248 said:

https://www.facebook.com/john.m.long3?fref=nf

 

Here's a link to his facebook.  Hoping for some live video updates during the eye of the storm. 

lol.  Who the hell finds out this sh*t.  Funny.  Trump is in full effect on his page.

[Cold Miser]

Maybe this has been discussed already, and yeah, it's way too soon to go into it but it really looks like once the storm is done pummeling the south east coast it wants to go back for a second round next week. 

[tamarack]

3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Maybe this has been discussed already, and yeah, it's way too soon to go into it but it really looks like once the storm is done pummeling the south east coast it wants to go back for a second round next week. 

Doing the Fuji with Nicole?

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Maybe this has been discussed already, and yeah, it's way too soon to go into it but it really looks like once the storm is done pummeling the south east coast it wants to go back for a second round next week. 

As a weak LP, what is more concerning is the additional swell expected in NE Florida with a very high full moon tide next week on damaged dunes

[Ginx snewx]

Euro is a total fookin disaster for Fl

[OceanStWx]

Reflectivity in the eye might be birds? Not a meteorological signal anyway.

[metagraphica]

52 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Reflectivity in the eye might be birds? Not a meteorological signal anyway.

This definitely looks like ERC is commencing. Recent visible images looks like it as well.  Wondering if it has time to complete ERC before reaching the coast and how much the windfield might expand.

Also that strange reflectivity in the current eye - do any of the Hurricane hunters release chaf of some sort for tracking/science/etc...??   Hard to imagine there are birds in there.

[OceanStWx]

7 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

This definitely looks like ERC is commencing. Recent visible images looks like it as well.  Wondering if it has time to complete ERC before reaching the coast and how much the windfield might expand.

Also that strange reflectivity in the current eye - do any of the Hurricane hunters release chaf of some sort for tracking/science/etc...??   Hard to imagine there are birds in there.

It's been hypothesized in past hurricanes (Hermine, Irene, Arthur to name a few) and the Hurricane Hunters have reported seeing them.

[metagraphica]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's been hypothesized in past hurricanes (Hermine, Irene, Arthur to name a few) and the Hurricane Hunters have reported seeing them.

Hmm...interesting.  Although now that I think about it if any birds did get caught up in the storm, following it along in the eye is the safest place to be.

[dryslot]

Matthew looks to be in a heading of more north then strictly NW, Might save some on the EC of Florida

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Matthew looks to be in a heading of more north then strictly NW, Might save some on the EC of Florida

It's been a bit east of consensus for a little while. But it may wobble west too, shortly. Now with double eye wall, what will that do?

[ORH_wxman]

Looks like Grand Bahama Island is in the crosshairs. That would be east of most guidance...which it had just missing to the west.

[dryslot]

It's been a bit east of consensus for a little while. But it may wobble west too, shortly. Now with double eye wall, what will that do?

Looks like it may be encountering some dry air in the NW quadrant? Or it may be undergoing another ERC


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[ORH_wxman]

Just now, dryslot said:

 

 

Looks like it may be encountering some dry air in the NW quadrant? Or it may be undergoing another ERC


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ERC for sure...and also a bit of shear, but we'll see how it goes. Sometimes these wobbles can fool us a bit. But it's gonna have to turn west pretty quick for the eye to miss Grand Bahama Island.

[dryslot]

 

ERC for sure...and also a bit of shear, but we'll see how it goes. Sometimes these wobbles can fool us a bit. But it's gonna have to turn west pretty quick for the eye to miss Grand Bahama Island.

Yeah, It looks like it wants to track right over them but it will have to start going more WNW to verify some of the models


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[dryslot]

Hurricane models have been quite steady at keeping this off the coast and affecting much of any land, But not sure how well they perform in general with regards to actual track

 

[ROOSTA]

A sense of relief watching the (must be hallucinations) Northerly track. The further N the better missing the highly populated southern counties. Interesting feature: a double eye-wall. I don't know or understand the dynamics other then an ERC.

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

A sense of relief watching the (must be hallucinations) of a N track. The further N the better missing the highly populated southern counties. Interesting feature: a double eye-wall. I don't know or understand the dynamics other then an ERC.

looking at velocity loops it was a wobble looks like no ERC and motion is NW again Westend of Grand Bahama 

[ROOSTA]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

looking at velocity loops it was a wobble looks like no ERC and motion is NW again

I concur. Impressive NE quad explosion. ERC failure it would appear. Meso-signatures all around the eye, pseudo Feeder all the way over to W coast.

[Damage In Tolland]

Down to 936..Eye tightening and clearing..Kaboom

[MarkO]

It looks to me like the inner core is strengthening on the last couple satellite images. I wonder if this is due to an ERC? I also think (unles it's drier air) we'll see some intensification in the next 12-18 hrs.

[Ginx snewx]

15 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

I concur. Impressive NE quad explosion. ERC failure it would appear. Meso-signatures all around the eye, pseudo Feeder all the way over to W coast.

All that is happening is eye is wobbling around entire system, motion is still NW

[ROOSTA]

In the overall scope dissecting every nuance is probably overkill. 

Violation of Gen Rule. Radar returns not good to make stupid assessments. Wind-field very good.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, ROOSTA said:

In the overall scope dissecting every nuance is probably overkill. 

hush you

[#NoPoles]

Well, Paris Island SC is currently evacuating Recruits to Albany, GA...lol, evacuating with DIs, I'd rather you lash me to a flag pole on the island and come get me when it's over, than evacuate with a bunch of DIs. Bless those little recruit hearts...

[Ginx snewx]

Holy fuk https://www.dvidshub.net/video/486466/coast-guard-air-station-miami-hc-144-ocean-sentry-airplane-crew-conducts-first-post-storm-damage-assessment-flights

[ORH_wxman]

24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

All that is happening is eye is wobbling around entire system, motion is still NW

 

The wobbling is easy to throw everyone off...though like I mentioned before, it looks like it will pass on the eastern side of guidance from earlier. I don't think it is going to miss Grand Bahama Island. The western solutions missed GBI. We're only talking like 30 miles here, but that's going to matter when we start getting near the Florida coast. Its possible it moves more westerly after Grand Bahama too.

[ROOSTA]

Nothing more needs to be said, just bangin on the ole piano

[CoastalWx]

Pretty fantastic look at the inner workings of a TC today.