Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

[Bostonseminole]

HRWF would be bring some pretty heavy rains..

[dryslot]

On Matthew's current path and trajectory of due north, Its going clip the Eastern Peninsula of Cuba and is not going to be over it very long

[nutmegfriar]

When lay people see that big bend in the cone, most will remember Hermine and figure this is a whiff, too........Columbus Day plans will not be altered, especially by those who may have interrupted their Labor Day weekends for a storm that had less local impact than a shart.

[CoastalWx]

24 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

just seems odd such a big jump on the ensembles.. usually they are slower to trend, new data maybe?

GFS suite is known to be jumpy. 

[dryslot]

12z Euro running late on SV

[Greenday75]

I just pray to God* this misses my beach house.

 

 

 

*doesn't exist

[weathafella]

37 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Well the first thing I am watching is how the core emerges post-Haiti and so far the data suggests it is already deepening once again meaning a minimal core disruption. Eastern Cuba will be its next challenge. Thereafter there is no shortage of heat content and a favorable enough environment for intensification in the short term. This is going to have longer term implications for the forecast downrange. Obviously the amount of amplification in the approaching trough and timing of the storm's northward movement will mean everything and both of those are key factors in the run to run variability. I haven't had the time to look at the teleconnectors as to why the GFS is modeling a somewhat weaker trough in the latest run but none the less I am not confortable in making any firm call for New England right now. It is not off the table at this point by any means though.

Great post!   Stay in the thread.

[eyewall]

Just now, weathafella said:

Great post!   Stay in the thread.

Thanks and once again as we speak the eye is clearing out. I am really interested in what happens after Cuba in terms of intensity.

[Ginx snewx]

Man hope the 12z s are correct So so much to do at work if not

[eyewall]

Apparently the Euro is going to be at least an hour late as per the main thread on this storm in the tropical subforum.

[Greenday75]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

Apparently the Euro is going to be at least an hour late as per the main thread on this storm in the tropical subforum.

Subfora*

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If Today's trends continue it's a dry weekend 

Drunk ?

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Apparently the Euro is going to be at least an hour late as per the main thread on this storm in the tropical subforum.

conspiracy 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Drunk ?

Wut?

The shifts east have been nothing short of extraordinary. Should they continue the next few cycles..it's a dry, mild weekend. 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

conspiracy 

Brexit.

[Cold Miser]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wut?

The shifts east have been nothing short of extraordinary. Should they continue the next few cycles..it's a dry, mild weekend. 

Kevin in Winter passive aggressive mode and it's only the first week of October. 

Thank god.  This forum has been dull since early Spring

[Bostonseminole]

 

DATE CREATED

Tue 04/Oct/2016 17:29:16 UTC

TITLE

The delivery of the 12z Ecmwf High-Resolution Forecast will be late of schedule.

NOTIFICATION TYPE

Notification

DESCRIPTION

Due to unforeseen circumstances the delivery of the 12z High Resolution Forecast and the BC-High Resolution Forecast (both atmosphere and wave) will be late. We are anticipating the delivery of the products to take place approx. 60 minutes later than the normal schedule.

Apologies for this delay.

[TalcottWx]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

This thread is a trip.

This.

It'd be much more fun if everyone stopped trying to be right and just tracked the damn thing.

No one is gonna know for a few days so why bother.

[TalcottWx]

22 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Thanks and once again as we speak the eye is clearing out. I am really interested in what happens after Cuba in terms of intensity.

A lot of conversation in regards to Haitian/Cuban impacts. The Bahamas are going to be absolutely thrashed with a massive storm surge. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

This.

It'd be much more fun if everyone stopped trying to be right and just tracked the damn thing.

No one is gonna know for a few days so why bother.

 

There's an inherent desire to be the first to "call" something on these forums...Tip kind of nailed that aspect of behavior that has become a lot more prevalent in the past 6 or 7 years vs earlier.

 

But it's an easy thing to let go of once you can be at peace with the fact we cannot predict the track of a TC with any skill out in that D5-10 time range. Anyone making definitive statements this early about the impacts on SNE is completely full of sh**...that's probably my best professional advice on this one.

 

I'd say the highest chance of impacts from this are the PRE...but anything is still on the table from a cat2/3 hit to a clean whiff with little rain at all.

[TalcottWx]

I told my dad I didn't think leaving Fort Lauderdale was necessary. Solid building. Not taking direct hit. Probably a ton of rain.

[donsutherland1]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

There's an inherent desire to be the first to "call" something on these forums...Tip kind of nailed that aspect of behavior that has become a lot more prevalent in the past 6 or 7 years vs earlier.

 

But it's an easy thing to let go of once you can be at peace with the fact we cannot predict the track of a TC with any skill out in that D5-10 time range. Anyone making definitive statements this early about the impacts on SNE is completely full of sh**...that's probably my best professional advice on this one.

 

I'd say the highest chance of impacts from this are the PRE...but anything is still on the table from a cat2/3 hit to a clean whiff with little rain at all.

Well beyond the forums, too. There is often too little respect for uncertainty and, frequently, it is uncertainty that humbles those who took hard positions before the data justified such positions.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Well beyond the forums, too. There is often too little respect for uncertainty and, frequently, it is uncertainty that humbles those who took hard positions before the data justified such positions.

 

Agreed Don, it is all over the place on social media outlets such as twitter, facebook, various blogs, etc, etc....even in the general media too though not as bad. It is my belief that credibility is more important than being the first to make a forecast. Making the latter a top priority tends to come at the expense of the former. After all, what good is making a forecast if nobody believes you after a while? An unintended consequence is that such cavalier forecasting behavior can cast a bad light on the entire field of meteorology.

[Ginx snewx]

31 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

This.

It'd be much more fun if everyone stopped trying to be right and just tracked the damn thing.

No one is gonna know for a few days so why bother.

we need a psychoanalysis thread for all these types of posts Nobody is trying to be right just throwing options out Perhaps we should discuss the Pats

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Agreed Don, it is all over the place on social media outlets such as twitter, facebook, various blogs, etc, etc....even in the general media too though not as bad. It is my belief that credibility is more important than being the first to make a forecast. Making the latter a top priority tends to come at the expense of the former. After all, what good is making a forecast if nobody believes you after a while? An unintended consequence is that such cavalier forecasting behavior can cast a bad light on the entire field of meteorology.

I completely agree with you, Will. Having said that, it is extraordinary how far knowledge, models, and forecasting skill have advanced in even the past decade. Unfortunately, some of that value is lost in the increasing jockeying on Social Media.

[Greenday75]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

we need a psychoanalysis thread for all these types of posts Nobody is trying to be right just throwing options out Perhaps we should discuss the Pats

haha, bet you guys are excited for next weekend.  Think Brady will deflate the balls?

[TalcottWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

we need a psychoanalysis thread for all these types of posts Nobody is trying to be right just throwing options out Perhaps we should discuss the Pats

We can look at the models individually and drool all we want but there's going to be small fluctuations in the next 24 hours that seriously affect this storm's path and future evolutions. 

I know I don't need to tell YOU that. I mean that in a good way. It's more or less those that poo-poo the likelihood of either or downplay the threat to SNE that certainly exists right now. At the same time we know this could go out to sea.

So if we understand the modeling still has no clue why not discuss more about the actual storm? More real time disco too? Trends on satellite and radar. I'm glued to refreshing the tropical floater right now. Lets just take time to respect the beast and enjoy the fact we finally have some interesting.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

I completely agree with you, Will. Having said that, it is extraordinary how far knowledge, models, and forecasting skill have advanced in even the past decade. Unfortunately, some of that value is lost in the increasing jockeying on Social Media.

 

Yeah, lost in the criticism is how much better we are at day 5 versus 10-15 years ago, it's pretty amazing that we now have roughly the same accuracy at day 5 that we used to have at day 3 in the late 1990s/early 2000s. But as with many things, the good (better modeling and better data) comes with the bad (the social media jockeying)

[SnowlieSnowstormson]

The new Euro has shifted even farther west, now basically making landfall for a time in Florida. Wow!

[WhiteLawns]

12z euro at hr 72 LF Mid Florida coast.