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October Disco

Damage In Tolland

By Damage In Tolland,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

The AO is highly negative, but we will also GOAK trough it too. So, the only interesting weather you may get is a SE US cutoff somewhere that maybe tickles New England as a nor'easter like some models show.  

FWIW, I think it looks good for SAI too. Yes, I know the SAI is not gospel, but thought I would throw it out there.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Freak doesn't.. just wants to paddle rowboats in dried up stream beds all autumn and tan 

Sorry your creeks dried up.

It's too bad you don't spend more time outside enjoying the beautiful weather.  

Days like today don't get much better.  Full foliage, cobalt skies, 70F.  Can't do any better.

I like the early morning cold and warm afternoons....could do 28F in the morning, 68F in the afternoon.  Just like June when we did 78/34 type days.

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Forgetting the whole Matthew history leading up to this deal today, ...this is quite analogous in my mind to a coastal winter storm that is "positive busting"

Positive Bust:  any system that gives a region sensible weather incongruent to the eat-schit reality originally portrayed by numerical forecast models.

Some may argue that this rain event was portrayed reasonably well by the GFS - to tell the truth, I hadn't been paying too close attention.  So, ... in lieu of thinking the front would have cleared the region and we'd be sunnier instead misery out of doors, out of curiosity I did just recourse to looking over the last four consecutive NAM cycles for Boston, MA..

Beginning, it was just under a quarter inch of QPF, quite presumably to the lazy observer, merely a fropa attributed.  But every run, improved those numbers to nearing 1.75" as of the 12z FOUS/FRH grid.  We'll see how all that fairs.. but, it's sort of sneaking in here as meaningful (though only partial) drought alleviation. I suppose in retrospect, it's now clear that Matthew transitioned to extra-tropical status, ...linking up with the boundary during that transition and so forth.

So I think of this as similar to winter ...we may have had a missed coastal low on the mid-range charts that hammered 'non-event' for every run, then it comes back in the closing 12 hours (sort of thing).

That's pretty much happened ..I think it was January 22nd earlier this year? Upon looking that up, though, the storm is getting enormous written historical value so I'm not sure if I'm thinking of the right one.   Anyway, there was an event that seemed like it came out of no-where.  There was a D9 modeled event that was easily ignored.  The tenor of the times had already generated a meme for woe-ism, and a stench permeated the mood in here that we'd be considering futility for the season as a whole. I remember wondering why at only the mid-point of a winter season, that would be the case.  I think that previous historically cold and dry-snowy February might have raised expectations, such that when the following pedestrian November and December transpired ... the reaction swung perhaps too far in the other way; and it [probably] parlayed unfavorably. Whatever the reason, ...the storm arrived in stark contrast to the 'stench'

All but forgotten, the NAM and Euro were like two.5 cycles away from the first flakes falling when they back the storm track some 500 nautical miles, ...then summarily another 300+ on the immediate next run(s), leaving the Mid Atlantic and NE offices scrambling to get Warning criteria notice out to appropriate societal channels.  Subjectively, that went on to be the best event the winter had to offer in my mind.   

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Forgetting the whole Matthew history leading up to this deal today, ...this is quite analogous in my mind to a coastal winter storm that is "positive busting"

Positive Bust:  any system that gives a region sensible weather incongruent to the eat-schit reality originally portrayed by numerical forecast models.

Some may argue that this rain event was portrayed reasonably well by the GFS - to tell the truth, I hadn't been paying too close attention.  So, ... in lieu of thinking the front would have cleared the region and we'd be sunnier instead misery out of doors, out of curiosity I did just recourse to looking over the last four consecutive NAM cycles for Boston, MA..

Beginning, it was just under a quarter inch of QPF, quite presumably to the lazy observer, merely a fropa attributed.  But every run, improved those numbers to nearing 1.75" as of the 12z FOUS/FRH grid.  We'll see how all that fairs.. but, it's sort of sneaking in here as meaningful (though only partial) drought alleviation. I suppose in retrospect, it's now clear that Matthew transitioned to extra-tropical status, ...linking up with the boundary during that transition and so forth.

So I think of this as similar to winter ...we may have had a missed coastal low on the mid-range charts that hammered 'non-event' for every run, then it comes back in the closing 12 hours (sort of thing).

That's pretty much happened ..I think it was January 22nd earlier this year? Upon looking that up, though, the storm is getting enormous written historical value so I'm not sure if I'm thinking of the right one.   Anyway, there was an event that seemed like it came out of no-where.  There was a D9 modeled event that was easily ignored.  The tenor of the times had already generated a meme for woe-ism, and a stench permeated the mood in here that we'd be considering futility for the season as a whole. I remember wondering why at only the mid-point of a winter season, that would be the case.  I think that previous historically cold and dry-snowy February might have raised expectations, such that when the following pedestrian November and December transpired ... the reaction swung perhaps too far in the other way; and it [probably] parlayed unfavorably. Whatever the reason, ...the storm arrived in stark contrast to the 'stench'

All but forgotten, the NAM and Euro were like two.5 cycles away from the first flakes falling when they back the storm track some 500 nautical miles, ...then summarily another 300+ on the immediate next run(s), leaving the Mid Atlantic and NE offices scrambling to get Warning criteria notice out to appropriate societal channels.  Subjectively, that went on to be the best event the winter had to offer in my mind.   

Feb 5th last winter is the event you are thinking of. 

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