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WxChallenge 2016-2017

448 posts in this topic

83/45/16

Decided to go all in tomorrow on the low. They made it to 46 last night and with clear skies and calm winds again I don't see why they won't tank below guidance again. I am concerned dews may not sneak down enough but I think the upper 40s is likely and decided to gamble on a bit lower than that since I'm not doing very well anyway. Went slightly above USL for the high with 850s of around 14C it seems low 80s should easily be attained. They made it to 75 today with 850s of about 10C. Winds looked to pick up quite a bit toward 06z so decided to gamble on them mixing some of it down as the LLJ cranks.

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84/55/19/0

When I made my forecast I figured they were going to get up to 82 or 83 today and with as lightly warmer air mass tomorrow, barring clouds ahead of the front, I was thinking they'd be a tad warmer. However, the Cu deck seemed to ruin their heating today so I'm doubting they'll reach this high. This place has been just one frustration after the other. Went around MOS for the low, if the front can get there a little earlier I could see how it tanks to 51 or so. USL's low made no sense yet again unless the front is delayed three hours which I doubt. BUFKIT showed a well mixed profile as the front goes through so I think they have a shot at 20 kts or so. I felt the USL was a little aggressive given how winds seem to under perform here so hedged slightly under.

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10 hours ago, wi_fl_wx said:

83/54/22/0

Kodiak is currently ahead by 2 votes...

Kodiak won. This sucks. :weep: I just don't understand why people voted for that place. That's an absolute forecasting nightmare with the lack of data, lack of sun, and huge time difference. And if the objective of having flex cities is to avoid stations with stagnant weather, then they failed with this place because they don't seem to get much precipitation.

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1 hour ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Kodiak won. This sucks. :weep: I just don't understand why people voted for that place. That's an absolute forecasting nightmare with the lack of data, lack of sun, and huge time difference. And if the objective of having flex cities is to avoid stations with stagnant weather, then they failed with this place because they don't seem to get much precipitation.

Hahaha I think many just voted the idea of Alaska for forecasting. All those things will throw many people off for sure. It did seem like kpou was the better option with swings coming up in the next two weeks. It will be interesting for sure

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I'm sure KPOU will be the next city. Hopefully there is a giant ridge the entire time. I would rather have the advisory board select the flex cities next year. 

 

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On 3/1/2017 at 2:16 PM, so_whats_happening said:

Wait why did they keep 27 when that wasn't present on daily report, which showed 26. Everything else seemed fine though.

That's because temperatures and precipitation are based on the 6z to 6z time period.  Only the maximum wind speed is derived from the daily climatological report, which is for 9z to 9z for Kodiak.  In this case, it was 27 at 6z, the high for the contest's purposes, and it fell by 9z so the 27 doesn't get recorded on the NWS climate report but counts for the contest.

 

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On 3/2/2017 at 4:10 PM, nje310 said:

That's because temperatures and precipitation are based on the 6z to 6z time period.  Only the maximum wind speed is derived from the daily climatological report, which is for 9z to 9z for Kodiak.  In this case, it was 27 at 6z, the high for the contest's purposes, and it fell by 9z so the 27 doesn't get recorded on the NWS climate report but counts for the contest.

 

I saw right at the end of posting it still recorded 27 after 6z. Oh well not much of an adventure outside of guessing the right winds peed. Boring onto the next.

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Hopefully they will make the change to a maximum wind speed on Day 8 of Kodiak of 14 knots, per the climate report's maximum speed of 16 mph.  Perhaps the contest managers are just busy today or enjoying the weekend. :)

 

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On 3/12/2017 at 10:14 PM, wi_fl_wx said:

Uggh...13->14 kt takes away my trophy! Noooo! Where did that 14 kt come from anyway? 

Oh, I'm sorry!!

 

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39/22/26

Thought I scored a coup with my high of 42 today but WAA ruined that. Tomorrow the air mass looks to be a good 6 or 7C colder at 925 mb. Not really anticipating a whole lot of mixing although they should see more in the way of sun than today but with snow cover and CAA decided to undercut MOS again. Went for a cold low with the high building in and hopefully mostly clear skies. Winds looked impressive tomorrow and they tend to rip on NW winds with FROPAs according to their wind rose composite.

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72/56/12/0

Looked like the column would dry out rapidly after about 03-04z so went with no rain. Hoping for enough sun tomorrow to get them into the low 70s. BUKIT showed them mixing out to around 850 mb. Hard to say when the low will occur. It looks like dews will remain pretty high after the rain moves away so a 06z low tomorrow night seems most likely. Basically went around guidance for the low since I don't know anything about how this place radiates though it looks to be cloudy for the most part.

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