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Mallow

WxChallenge 2016-2017

406 posts in this topic

63/34/9

I had to mix higher than what BUFKIT showed to get to that number. I could see maybe 64 tops but I'm surprised NWS upped it to 66. That would really be a colossal failure by the models resolving the mixing layer height. Went basically with guidance on the low, hoping they sort of level off at some point as they near the dew point. Didn't see much potential for wind so went on the low side though I think I probably went a knot or two too low.

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1 hour ago, WxBlue said:

66/34/9

Gambling on the mixing, especially after NWS bumped it up to 66. I do have to say JAN is one of more aggressive WFOs I've seen in the competition so far.

Good gamble imo. Looking more closely, 00z NAM BUFKIT shows that if they mix about 1200 feet higher, they will get to 66. They've already shown a propensity be above guidance and there are definitely reasons to go above guidance tomorrow.

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Went 64/34/8/0

Felt I should have gone higher on the high temp but held it conservative. Looks like I should have since we just hit 64. Not doing bad so far I'm below 100 so I'll take it. These ulls are always tricky maybe next week some severe weather with yet another ull coming through.

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70/39/11/0

How quickly clouds come in will determine the high. Could see how the low could get to even 36 depending on the dew point as the night goes on. Also precip was a tricky timing was thinking it would hold off until just after 6z but if I would have went with precip it would have been only like 0.03

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73/40/15/0

Went all in on the high tomorrow after getting burned today and Tuesday. My reasoning is that on Tuesday they had 860 mb temps of about 11C and reached 76F. Tomorrow's should be around 9 to 9.5C. Of course, the clouds may spoil the party but I decided it was worth the risk. Not too enthused though with the GFS MOS showing only 66F. The low was also tough, I could see it being anywhere from 35 to 42. I hedged on the warmer side in hopes that some of the wind above the inversion could somehow get to the surface. I went pretty high on the winds since they had a window of mixing as the shortwave approaches in the late afternoon. Precip. looked like it would dodge the area and break up as it got there so went with nothing measurable.

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Oh geez....

Well that was quite the fail of a good chunk of models. 64 as a high let's see if the rain can hold off a bit hoping so only 5 more hours to go lol

The radar in North Louisiana looks to have more bark then bite so that is fine hopefully

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On 2/17/2017 at 1:34 PM, so_whats_happening said:

Oh geez....

Well that was quite the fail of a good chunk of models. 64 as a high let's see if the rain can hold off a bit hoping so only 5 more hours to go lol

The radar in North Louisiana looks to have more bark then bite so that is fine hopefully

 

I wonder if the WxChallenge will make the change to 65 for the high temperature.  According to the climate report from JAN, the high was 65 at 11:23am (1723z).  The 24 hour high on the 06z METAR early this morning also indicated a high of 18.3 C.  The 18z METAR yesterday failed to report six-hour highs and lows, so I assume this is why it was not captured.  Not that it would really change anything for most people, of course.

 

 

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