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WxChallenge 2016-2017


Mallow

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82/59/8/0

Hoping they can mix about as well as they did today with 850s about 1C cooler. Took a shot at a cooler low which I am thinking would occur at 06z tomorrow (18z MOS shows it happening tonight?) night as winds shift around to the NE and they funnel in some cooler air but without much in the way of a gradient it might be tough to do especially if clouds move in ahead of the OH Valley low.

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83/59/14

Not sure why 14 was put but gotta deal with it was shooting for 10knots. Temps already have hit 80-81 have at least another 3 hours of heating the higher the temp the better it is and helps me with that wind lol

 

I'm worried about the lows it will come down right to 6z for that and finally we get into some interesting weather Thursday into friday

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77/57/10/0.08

A very rushed forecast, didn't even get a chance to look at BUFKIT but based on what I saw on the NAM profile just now I like Mallow's risk on the high. Definitely would've gone higher on the winds had I seen it too. I'm interested to see if they can drop below guidance as it would seem the thick cloud deck isn't progressing the way that MAV/MET show although MET has a better handle as it doesn't show OVC until 06z. However, with dews creeping up I'm not really expecting it to get below 60F tonight so definitely the potential for a disaster tomorrow pending the high and precip.

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80/57/14/0.16

Saw potential for high to fail but with the storm going west and no real cold low level flow I don't think fog/CAD should be too much of an issue but then that brings up the rain. I'm thinking we get a nice quick overrunning with the warm front might be possibly heavy due to some convection that might try to get going. Also with the possibility of lower dews around the potential is there for Temps to drop once precip starts, I'm thinking 57 was kinda low but we will see was thinking 59 at first. Either a big day or big bust lets see

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2 hours ago, Mallow said:

Wishing I went with 0 rain... I did consider it.

Yea same but it also looked really good from models perspective oh well thankfully I feel the warmer Temps are something. Low meh 

 

Somehow though even if we don't manage rain but still get up to 80 area I somehow can still move up today weird.

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Yea no rain hurt today and low but everything else was good still in the top 200 which is cool

 

Went all out for tomorrow 74/51/19/0.27

I'm not sure how the rain threat will hold up some are showing quite a decent amount of rain (.50") some are showing almost none. Thought temp would rise a little with possibly some breaks before the front, winds should start at night as well. Hoping for below 100 by the end but will take under 200 so long as tomorrow isn't crazy

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77/54/25/0.40"

With a sharp negatively tilted trough went with the more amplified/slower models (NAM and Euro), which both suggested mid-upper 70s for highs. Strong dynamics and some CAPE suggests elevated potential for a forced squall line along the front so went high on the wind and a little higher on precip. Even if this forced squall line doesn't work out, that's a strong pressure gradient tomorrow evening in a CAA regime, so I think winds could get pretty high either way. Went a little warmer than the raw models for the 6z low tomorrow night on a whim. We'll see.

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1 minute ago, OHweather said:

77/54/25/0.40"

With a sharp negatively tilted trough went with the more amplified/slower models (NAM and Euro), which both suggested mid-upper 70s for highs. Strong dynamics and some CAPE suggests elevated potential for a forced squall line along the front so went high on the wind and a little higher on precip. Even if this forced squall line doesn't work out, that's a strong pressure gradient tomorrow evening in a CAA regime, so I think winds could get pretty high either way. Went a little warmer than the raw models for the 6z low tomorrow night on a whim. We'll see.

Man makes mine not quite out on a limb lol I saw potential for higher winds and precip but didn't think it would hold enough for me to bite. Big thing for me to worry about was the high the low may or may not depends on the strength of the car.

Good luck

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75/53/23/0.23

Well I'll start off with precip. for a change and just say it's a WAG :lol: The trend seemed to be for the heaviest precip. to miss to the west but who knows. Sided with warmer guidance on high especially given trends last couple of days. Figured they could spike to mid 70s right before front goes through. I had 77 originally but felt that might be a little too aggressive. The low will be above 50 I think because they downslope on NW flow and winds will be strong with NAM BUFKIT depicting 20-25 kt winds only 500 feet AGL. I was shocked to see how low the USL was for winds!

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Another awesome first day went 76/48/19/0.02 this place looks to sit kinda in a bowl/valley.

I went higher max then some models were showing considering strong WAA ahead of the SLP coming out of the rockies, also from 850's looks like they could max around 77 area. Might have to contend with some low clouds with what looks like a nice moisture flux with the WAA in the early AM. Im thinking they stay mostly dry it is possible a quick shower pushes through hence the 0.02. Im worried about the low. I can see how this could go down to even 46 tonight but am too hesitant to go that low with clouds increasing as the night goes on. Winds should be pretty strong I can see also how those could go higher, not really sure about how this region is with winds.

Overall tried to do a middle ground forecast. Good luck

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