USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 Well ladies and gentlemen of New England, it looks like the GFS and most models are bringing the tropical system through the Caribbean Sea then it turns northward in the Central Caribbean Sea as a powerful major hurricane and then rapidly intensifies further over the western Atlantic Ocean east of Fl, NC and VA and dumps close to 6-12" of rain on coastal SNE. Still we have a lot of uncertainty and this will change every run until it becomes more consistent. Stay Tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 25, 2016 Author Share Posted September 25, 2016 According to twisterdata.com the GFS brings an intense low level jet at both 925mb and 850mb with a 90-100 knot jet and 50-60 knot surface wind gusts over Cape Cod and Islands. Towards 288 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 Keep us posted. Only 12 days to go. I do agree that this will change every model run until it becomes more consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 I wouldn't get to caught up in this yet, with that being said, LC did mention this in his weekly newsletter last night. This would probably occur sometime in the October 6th-10th time frame, certainly something to keep an eye on especially as we move into next weekend if the models begin/continue to show this potential. Right now I am much more invested in the cutoff low for the middle and end of the week which could bring much needed rainfall to areas that really need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 i have a hypothesis that global warming somehow ignites story-book october and novembers ... with at times out and out wintry appeals to the pattern, and even sometimes verified, that for some reason then turn into schit winters. this has been happening since ...2000 really. snow chances in October are not nearly as rare any more. I remember the first 35 years of my life it NEVER snowed or even really hinted like it could until ... November 10 or thereabouts. now it seems we have a 1 in 3 shot of snowing in October just about any given autumn, just based on the last 15 years of statistics alone. why? i'm wondering when that no longer is presumed random - which btw, i don't seen this particular GFSian hand-lotion and Kleenex solution really showing anything ending as snow... However, here we go again (?) with the former - the models do it every year more so than prior to 2000, too - like they are a numerical artifact of something real about the system integration, where as a whole it does [maybe] try to promote winter early - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 Can always start at 12" of rain and adjust up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 so 6-12" equals feet of rain? sure. keep swinging for the fences. one of these days you might get something right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Damage and lots of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Not worth its own thread this far out. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 2 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: According to twisterdata.com the GFS brings an intense low level jet at both 925mb and 850mb with a 90-100 knot jet and 50-60 knot surface wind gusts over Cape Cod and Islands. Towards 288 hours. I can honestly say I've never seen anyone go into detail about a progged LLJ at 300hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSurge Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Boarding up the windows tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Bring back the tags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 26, 2016 Author Share Posted September 26, 2016 00z GFS brings the storm back to the benchmark. Brings 80mph winds to Cape Cod and stronger wind gusts to ACK. Almost 100 knot winds over the ocean still, but another 100 miles west, then Cape Cod sees 100 knot wind gusts. I have never experienced 100 knot winds before, I bet I wouldn't want to as I might be screaming for my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Yeah and the 6z GFS says Bermuda might get something and that's it. This will be all over the map over the next 10-12 days. See where things stand in a week from now. My gut says nobody on the east coast sniffs this. The pattern has been pretty consistent on sending these storms packing way before they get close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Why talk in absolutes regarding this system? Why analyze the GFS when the GEFS ensemble is just as tasty? Seriously, the GFS Ensemble Control run has been bun worthy for a while now with this system. Would be fun though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 97L is looking very good this afternoon. Looks like a big, symmetrical system developing. What will happen a week from now? Storm should develop and move west into the Caribbean. Could scrape S America. From a laymen's perspective looks like 2 general things could happen if it doesn't move over S America. Large high will be moving across the NE next week. First scenario is that Matthew moves north or northeast out of the Caribbean and gets scooted off out to sea east of the high? Second scenario is that his latitude is so low and he keeps moving west so that when he finally turns north he crawls and waits for the high to move out of the way and possibly comes up the back side. Either way large islands could be in the way and if he is moving slowly could get shredded. Just general conjectures for possibilities around day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 What a stupid thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What a stupid thread. Benchmark, got to disagree with you. This thread probably should have been started later this week if 97L was still any kind of threat. Anything can happen or not happen 240 hours away. With the endless "boring" weather at least this is something to keep a watch on. Not that it will necessarily be a threat to New England but it could be a be a strong storm to threaten in US mainland in someway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Yeah and the 6z GFS says Bermuda might get something and that's it. This will be all over the map over the next 10-12 days. See where things stand in a week from now. My gut says nobody on the east coast sniffs this. The pattern has been pretty consistent on sending these storms packing way before they get close. I fully expect sunny skies after not more than 0.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 no thread is stupid guys. would i have started this thread? probably not - no. but, this is as much an imaginative process as it is a learning one; and if there was really a necessity to chastise those who demonstrate will in either of those aspects than....well, for one, this site wouldn't be worth anyone's time. but, it would have been moderated as such all along and the culture would have evolved to be entirely different altogether. i suppose we are still dealing with a monster in the supposed la-la range - for that alone, it is interesting that the models and their ensembles refuse to give up on the idea of something lurking. What? heh - right... by the way, the 18z GFS Sandys Maine - just to add some muse to the fray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 They can have it (ME) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Michael Lowry at the Weather Channel sums up what we all seem to know: "The science tells us there’s no skill in seven-to-ten day forecasts of tropical systems that haven’t formed (like invests)." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 6 hours ago, wxeyeNH said: Benchmark, got to disagree with you. This thread probably should have been started later this week if 97L was still any kind of threat. Anything can happen or not happen 240 hours away. With the endless "boring" weather at least this is something to keep a watch on. Not that it will necessarily be a threat to New England but it could be a be a strong storm to threaten in US mainland in someway. The threat is to land is valid...this may not fish, but starting a thread on the merit of clown range GFS run that strikes your back yard is asinine. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: no thread is stupid guys. would i have started this thread? probably not - no. but, this is as much an imaginative process as it is a learning one; and if there was really a necessity to chastise those who demonstrate will in either of those aspects than....well, for one, this site wouldn't be worth anyone's time. but, it would have been moderated as such all along and the culture would have evolved to be entirely different altogether. i suppose we are still dealing with a monster in the supposed la-la range - for that alone, it is interesting that the models and their ensembles refuse to give up on the idea of something lurking. What? heh - right... by the way, the 18z GFS Sandys Maine - just to add some muse to the fray. A general thread for the the storm is very warranted...but the context in which this was started is silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 James approved 00z Gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epicnova Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 As a SE New Englander I am enjoying/fearing the 00z GFS run. I'm enjoying it because it might be my first true hurricane experience, but I'm fearing it because it might be too strong. The high resolution gfs model has it as a 930mb system that just misses Cape Cod at 228hrs. However, due to it being 228hrs out, and my extremely bad luck with weather it very likely wont happen. So us New Englanders have nothing to fear as long as I live here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 00Z GFS would be a little breezy for some. The 06Z looks like it is SW a bit so far. Fantasy land but interesting to have something to watch at this point other than leaf progression and rainfall deficits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Lol figured the 0z GFS would stoke the weenie flames. Only 10 days to go. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 6z gfs gives me 10-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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