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12z GFS Fantasy Range, hy brid storm brings feet of rain to SNE


USCAPEWEATHERAF

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7 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

The Euro data is old now, as hurricanes go, and expect it will get with the program at 00z.  I don't think it is one of your better hurricane forecast models, especially at this juncture.

The Euro has been very erratic. The further west track and stronger blocking on the 18Z GFS allows that Northern stream energy to phase and capture the system as it becomes Extratropical rather than acting a kicker and booting it out to sea.

 

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Been posting about once per day on Matthew.   Todays musings...

You guys shouldn't be looking at each model run but the trends.  

Looking less likely today that the trough will boot it out NE.  We are still so far out in fantasy land that anything can still happen so don't discount that at all.

Model trends have been west or just stalling it out in the Bahamas waiting for something to get it moving again...

If west trend continues could come into Florida and then slowly come north in a much weakened state.  

The only way I see of New England getting a strong hurricane is if it moving north very quickly.  I can't see this doing so and the GFS is overplaying strength if it did get this far north. 

The crazy rainfall amounts on the GFS are just that, crazy.  New England is not going to see 10-15" of rain.

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