weathafella Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Lol...right over nyc day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Heights are higher to north and east. That's the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Major hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Opens up and drenches sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Just now, dryslot said: Looks like it runs the coastline Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yup. Like you said 5h was different over the Conus allowing a more northerly trajectory this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Dianesque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 A good soaker this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yup. Like you said 5h was different over the Conus allowing a more northerly trajectory this run. Vortmax was further north and west over the mid west this run and funneled matthew due north as we lost the kicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 oh god ... so now, everyone's hugging? ... in any case, 1% chance for direct impact on any run to date, thus far and that's not changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 drought buster approved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Bring the damage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 3-5"+ qpf this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: 3-5"+ qpf this run unrelated topic but ... this closed low was cyclically a big rainer in the operational ECM and GFS and so forth ... 'dry begets dry' somehow conquered the closed low for us. i wonder if dry-begets-dry can defeat a hurricane too - ahahhaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panes and Portlets Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 That will get the weenies shaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 nobody is hugging anything, just discussing the run at it comes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: unrelated topic but ... this closed low was cyclically a big rainer in the operational ECM and GFS and so forth ... 'dry begets dry' somehow conquered the closed low for us. i wonder if dry-begets-dry and defeat a hurricane too - ahahhaha Hopefully not but these things are so finicky anything can happen, But we could use that rain at the least, That's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Heights are higher to north and east. That's the difference. High pressures can be sexy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: nobody is hugging anything, just discussing the run at it comes in Yes, That's it for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: 3-5"+ qpf this run there's a swath of 5-6" right over my area... would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Just now, dryslot said: Yes, That's it for now We model discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 there's a swath of 5-6" right over my area... would be niceYeah, This region for the most part in general could use a good soakingSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: nobody is hugging anything, just discussing the run at it comes in Become so bored we are doing Day 8 play by plays haha. Just imagine doing this for a GFS day 8-10 fantasy blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: High pressures can be sexy too. you know this ...just sayn' the high was more the impetus for Sandy's anomalistic behavior, too... should that be the deal here. by the way follks, this run of so many renditions we've seen on this thing so far super-imposes over Irene's - almost precisely once N of the islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: We model discuss. Precisely, That's what we do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Bring the damage! You wouldn't get much this run other than flooding your basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: We model discuss. Bob you'll be all over the first person posting about a Day 8-10 snow threat lol. You hate those discussions with a passion it seems in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: You wouldn't get much this run other than flooding your basement. There'd be quite a bit of damage with that..981and it transitioning ET with expanding wind field and gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Just now, powderfreak said: Bob you'll be all over the first person posting about a Day 8-10 snow threat lol. You hate those discussions with a passion it seems in the winter. I'm sure I will. It just gets annoying when people lock in or blah systems at that lead time. Discuss all the realm of possibilities at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I'm sure I will. It just gets annoying when people lock in or blah systems at that lead time. Discuss all the realm of possibilities at that range. Haha yeah I know, and it's been boring as all hell for 6 months so it seems different with a tropical storm. But even folks just discussing models at day 8-10 get ragged on all winter for discussing verbatim outcomes, even if it's just model talk. You can tell we are all itchy for even day 8 fantasy storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 20 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: High pressures can be sexy too. Theres also lower 500mb heights in the GOM earlier on that allows to get tugged in closer to the se coast...otherwise i think it might have escaped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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