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12z GFS Fantasy Range, hy brid storm brings feet of rain to SNE


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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

 

Reminds me of November or early December every year when the first threat shows up around 240-264 hours and when it disappears by 180-192 hours, there's definitely some that are legit disappointed who had become emotionally invested in the threat.

 

I'm cool discussing the possibilities of the storm, but most should remember that OP solutions are basically useless. Even ensembles at this point aren't that good...esp for a TC which they will have lower skill on verses a synoptic storm.

If this is still the case after all these years, people should just stop posting.  

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Reminds me of November or early December every year when the first threat shows up around 240-264 hours and when it disappears by 180-192 hours, there's definitely some that are legit disappointed who had become emotionally invested in the threat.

 

I'm cool discussing the possibilities of the storm, but most should remember that OP solutions are basically useless. Even ensembles at this point aren't that good...esp for a TC which they will have lower skill on verses a synoptic storm.

Reasons why seldom does one directly LF New England

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43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Reminds me of November or early December every year when the first threat shows up around 240-264 hours and when it disappears by 180-192 hours, there's definitely some that are legit disappointed who had become emotionally invested in the threat.

 

I'm cool discussing the possibilities of the storm, but most should remember that OP solutions are basically useless. Even ensembles at this point aren't that good...esp for a TC which they will have lower skill on verses a synoptic storm.

First time replying to anything since I have become a member, but I always like your insight to everything,  People live and die by each Op model one 8-10 days out.  I'm sure the 18z GFS and the 0Z model suite will have a completely different solution (more OTS or landfall some place) and people will bite once again.  Question, though, how much stake should we put into the hurricane models (GFDL and HWRF) at this point?

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I've been posting in this thread just once a day since this storm is so far away time wise.  Yesterday's 12Z Euro had Matthew approaching SE Florida.  Today  (way out at day 9) it meanders it slowly NNE through the SE Bahamas as a 920 something storm.  At the end of its run the storm is still very slowly moving NE. High pressure is along the east coast. Timing is everything.  Yesterday I posted it looked like a west model trend.  Today it looks like an east model trend.  Different day, different solution.  Crazy to speculate this far out  but I still do.

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The HWRF and GFDL are some of the more unstable models. I've seen some crazy solutions from them with past storms...I usually don't take those individual members to the bank at all. I think this far out, you're better off looking at the blend of tropical models and looking at two things. Clustering and D/Dprog of the models.....the change with respect to what the previous runs had. Try to establish a trend. However, look at all the moving parts at 500mb. That will take many days to figure out. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The HWRF and GFDL are some of the more unstable models. I've seen some crazy solutions from them with past storms...I usually don't take those individual members to the bank at all. I think this far out, you're better off looking at the blend of tropical models and looking at two things. Clustering and D/Dprog of the models.....the change with respect to what the previous runs had. Try to establish a trend. However, look at all the moving parts at 500mb. That will take many days to figure out. 

Thanks Coastal.  

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it's changed (the Euro) it's extended larger synoptic evolution substantially in just three runs. 

it's almost completely lost the MW trough idea and has an east-central ridge axis now during it's late middle to extended range - that orientation of large scale features would spare everyone in the contiguous, period - but it is one run so... meh

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31 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It's just something to watch and track.  No sense getting worked up one way or the other.

its in a good spot for now for strengthening at least

i almost wonder (...and probably would take Schadenfreude if it did) ... if people would be happier if this thing ended the world for 50 consecutive runs, all guidance species ... and then it hooked with 6 hours remaining and gave absolutely nothing.   

it seems to be that the emotional thing is tied into the scary drama/dystopian element in the run-up to the event more than the event its self in a lot of case.  fascinating...  'don't dare rip off our omen points'

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

That bizarre WSW tuck causes the missed turn north and hence slower solution from the ECMWF.  GFS and other guidance aren't really showing that. Euro could be right, but it did move towards the GFS early on as Bob said.

It's like when Joaquin did the SW tuck, models didn't handle that well at all.

Plus you have such a blocky pattern across North America with that cut off sitting there, and we know how well models develop/break down blocks.

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34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i almost wonder (...and probably would take Schadenfreude if it did) ... if people would be happier if this thing ended the world for 50 consecutive runs, all guidance species ... and then it hooked with 6 hours remaining and gave absolutely nothing.   

it seems to be that the emotional thing is tied into the scary drama/dystopian element in the run-up to the event more than the event its self in a lot of case.  fascinating...  'don't dare rip off our omen points'

I know that for many people, the run up is at least as fun....myself included.

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20 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I agree, I look forward to the tracking of a system and its almost like a let down when it arrives or passes, I then start looking for the next one

do you feel ripped off by a positive bust? 

the very best of which have essentially zero run-up.  

in December 1997, there was 0 run-up to a 15 to 24" interior society haulter.   In that era there was a Norlun in PWM that ran up to 18" in a forecast of 1-3" 

those events eclipse the 90th percentile for snow production and how ZERO run up.  haha.  wow 

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Matthew looks to be a hurricane by morning, large windfield, especially on the northern side of the circulation where hurricane force winds are found at flight level.  Plus the stronger and faster it occurs, he will be further east in the Atlantic Ocean north of the Greater Antilles.  He looks real good right now.

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