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October 2016 General Discussion


IWXwx

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As we roll into October, an all-too typical showdown between the ECMWF and the GFS looms. It looks like NWS is buying into the GFS fight now, as my point is showing sunny skies and a recovery to normal temperatures by the end of the week and going into October.

gfs_z500_mslp_us_24.png

Meanwhile, the King cuts off the midweek ULL and it does a sit-n-spin right over the subforum, leaving most of us with cloudy, showery, cool conditions from Wednesday right into October.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png

 

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png

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3 hours ago, IWXwx said:

As we roll into October, an all-too typical showdown between the ECMWF and the GFS looms. It looks like NWS is buying into the GFS fight now, as my point is showing sunny skies and a recovery to normal temperatures by the end of the week and going into October.

gfs_z500_mslp_us_24.png

Meanwhile, the King cuts off the midweek ULL and it does a sit-n-spin right over the subforum, leaving most of us with cloudy, showery, cool conditions from Wednesday right into October.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png

 

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png

I'll buy the GFS as well.

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I love the subtitle in this thread :lol:. Im one of those pumpkin spice people. Hoping for lots of clear, calm days when the foliage is changing in October. Preferred crisp air, but the main thing is to have maximized viewing of natures amazing show, so really hoping for benign weater. Once we hit November, then bring on the nonstop gray skies!

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An update from this morning's opening post. The 12z GFS trended toward the Euro in cutting off the late week stacked low, although it's position is over VA rather than Southern IN by Friday evening. Looks like a typical cave job.

As you can tell, I'm getting warmed up for winter model watching.

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3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

72 hour rainfall from the cutoff low is "just" 2.55" in Wyandotte, but 3.99" at DTW, and 5.91" at Detroit City!

Nice. You guys needed it. Don't want to carry a drought into winter. September was odd, we recorded 5.39" of rainfall, with 5.02" of that occurring over a 2 day period. 

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2 hours ago, LoveSN+ said:

Looks like some warmer times are ahead. Nothing like what we experienced two weeks ago, but some highs in the low 80s certainly can't be ruled out. 

Average highs are now less than 70F roughly north of I-80 so anything well into the 70s or 80s would be solidly above average.

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4 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Trees are finally starting to turn around here.  The drive along the Mississippi was surprisingly colorful earlier today.  Crops are quickly getting harvested as well.  About half of the cornfields have already been picked, and even the beans are being harvested now.  

Same with the trees here. They are just now starting to show hints of color. I'd say about 80% of the corn/beans are ready, but with the sit-n-spin low hovering for the past few days, it may be mid week before harvesting resumes. A couple of days at or near 80° midweek should have them busy again.

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Interesting little system coming up this Thursday.  Looks like Iowa will have a stark contrast of conditions.  Severe possible east of I-35 and temp/dews in the upper 70s/60s.  A very cold stratiform rain over northwestern Iowa with temps barely above 40 and driving north winds.  A week or two later and this setup may have produced some wet snows in that deform zone.  

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..... Upper 30's this morning feels good.  The color and weather has been perfect.  Should be warm again this week in the 60's!  I love warm Octobers.

A logging area a couple miles north of my place yesterday. 

IMG_0256.JPG

I can go from the Keweenaw to Marquette on power lines pretty much.  Superior in the background.

IMG_0261.JPG

sat shot from the 2nd shows the "hier" elevation color nice!

14590525_1407424702620750_6037142516631733859_n.png

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^Nice pics Bo.

 

Stuck under a stratus deck for the 3rd day in a row.  Kind of early in the season for persistent stratus decks around here.  

Thursday night is looking pretty stormy around here.  Not expecting severe, as that will likely take place further west/south, but could be several non-severe storms racing through later in the night.

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Probably a low probability scenario at this point but the eastern fringes of the subforum should keep an eye on what Matthew does.  Not out of the question that there could be a pretty decent rain event should the timing be right with the incoming trough possibly interacting with the hurricane remnants.

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