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Matthew


NWNC2015

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9 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

euro narrowly misses some of the tallest mountains in Cuba, goes for east central Cuba where its more flat, and doing so only down 1mb to 975mb

It doesn't narrowly miss them, and I don't care if the Euro only shows 1 MB drop, if the storm spends 48 hrs over Cuba its not going to strengthen, the 192 plot has the entire eastern half of the center running over 5-6k ft mountains, even if the core doesn't hit them they will severely disturb the system....then it spends the next 2 days with the center over land that's game over for the storm...the Euro takes it to 969 from 975 over land it doesnt work like that....IF the storm takes the Euro track you will be lucky to see a weak TS exit Cuba,.

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The EURO accounts for some of that I wouldn't get too hung up over the individual op, the trend west brings a stronger storm indicated in the red lines...

There are by far more weaker solutions (blue) from the highest mountain in Cuba east into Hispaniola...

Below is the 12z euro ensemble....all storms headed for south Florida are strong...and there is a noticeable gap in Cuba where hurricanes try to avoid MTNS...

14494835_1119316328161360_38443572260027

 

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6 minutes ago, Thrasher Fan said:

0z GFS is not pretty for the coast of NC

Depicts a landfalling 972mb hurricane on 10/7 early Friday AM just north of Wilmington

LONG ways out but certainly looking like something to track first of the week

Like I said in the main thread that is my obligatory weenie run.....that crushes MBY, still 9 days and a ton of ever changing model runs to go though....looks to be a mature storm with a large wind field would probably be the worst hit in NC wind wise since Fran just based on the shear size of the system....everything east of I-95 would get just pummeled on that track and its probably worst case scenario for Emerald Isle and the Tar/Neuse river systems.....that track would put 10 ft of water up the rivers.....good thing it probably wont happen.

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4 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

0z euro is stronger pre Jamaica.....it will be more east....taking Florida out of the game now finally...maybe OTS one can hope

At 216 hours, east of the 12z run, but 32MB stronger. Doesn't look like it's OTS with it heading NW at 216 hours, but the H5 setup is quite a bit different from the 12z. You would think it would be OTS.

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After seeing the AN heights over the S/E on the EURO, this is not just a Florida or North Carolina storm...Georgia to South Carolina is possible too on the EURO. The GFS has been more bouncy going from Boston to North Carolina...if it continues to trend toward the EURO...areas further south will soon be in play like Myrtle Beach.

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18 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said:

After seeing the AN heights over the S/E on the EURO, this is not just a Florida or North Carolina storm...Georgia to South Carolina is possible too on the EURO. The GFS has been more bouncy going from Boston to North Carolina...if it continues to trend toward the EURO...areas further south will soon be in play like Myrtle Beach.

Euro is real slow, probably to slow even......hate storms that are moving from south to north like the models have this one it doesn't take much change east to west to go from a SC landfall to a NE landfall, and even small changes in the short term can have huge impacts on the actual conditions any one spot has to deal with ......still its a long ways out and a lot can and will change, but it seems to be getting to be a safe bet that Cuba/Haiti/Bahamas at least will be dealing with a storm

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