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Matthew


NWNC2015

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8 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Also moving NNW instead of just NW.

Nah. WRAL on tv (Fish) is still focused on the loop well south of us.... He hasn't said anything about concerns. Looks like Maze just said in a post a minute ago in comments he thinks it'll be "ok". That's a quick mind changer. lol 

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Just now, Brick Tamland said:

NHC said it is moving NNW now. Might not make it to the NC coast, but I think the odds go up it gets to the NC coast if it misses Florida.

Well Maze said he was concerned, no matter what he just said on another post... but he still said it. He knows a lot more than us and this hurricane will do as it pleases. Sometimes wrenches are thrown in and this whole week has been a doozy. 

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Looks like the NHC kinda decided not to mention/use the 18Z GFS/HWRF and GFDL and I cant really blame them, there was no way they should wholesale change the track based on just those....if the 00Z's continue the trend then you will see them lift the plots back north..the timing is short and the models and NHC are not usually off by a lot inside of 48 hrs....if he stays east of track all night and the GFS stays similar or bumps more NW then in the morning I suspect hurricane watches will be up all the way to Cape Lookout.....the NAMS kind of backed off some though so the GFS might go back to the loop quicker as well....

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2 minutes ago, Midnight Moon said:

I've decided to start watching the outer eye-wall instead of the inner eye-wall for trajectory.  Less erratic. 

It looks like it's very close to taking over.  If that happens, it should shrink down quickly and possibly lead to a stronger system.

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Just now, Shawn said:

It looks like it's very close to taking over.  If that happens, it should shrink down quickly and possibly lead to a stronger system.

It will be interesting if this ERC fully completes...it's already fairly big.  The precip shield is as big as FL.

 

Screen Shot 2016-10-06 at 11.30.41 PM.png

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11 minutes ago, packbacker said:

It will be interesting if this ERC fully completes...it's already fairly big.  The precip shield is as big as FL.

 

Looking like the process is about to get underway.. the old center is getting pulled up into the NE wall of the outter.   This will be very good to watch (with radar) over the next 3-6 hrs.  I'm not quite sure it can get too much strength going on with such short time though. :(

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5 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Is it just.me or did the GFS start up with the storm already NW of its current  location and almost takes it directly into central florida. Seems to have initialized 30 miles to far west with the low maybe?

It looks pretty good...right on the tip of Grand Bahama west coast.  Never makes landfall, but it's so close.  This is a worst case scenario track for flooding for NC.  

 

Screen Shot 2016-10-06 at 11.48.39 PM.png

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FWIW the 00z GFS is a slight bit East versus previous runs for CHS.  Appreciable rains for many.. flooding even.

 

Anyways, need to get some sleep.  Looking forward to tracking this tomorrow if it happens to stay "just off" the FL coast tonight.  Be safe everyone!

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Hey packbacker, PGV is only running a couple inches behind wettest year ever (at least when I checked last week) and this would send us well over.

If that turn flattens out at all and stays NE instead of ENE then a landfall and more effets with the wind inland would be possible. Grounds already wet so it wouldn't take much wind to have issues here. Gotta wait to see what the euro and other models do overnight and see if the turn to the southeast is delayed or absent from them as well.

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1 minute ago, shaggy said:

Hey packbacker, PGV is only running a couple inches behind wettest year ever (at least when I checked last week) and this would send us well over.

If that turn flattens out at all and stays NE instead of ENE then a landfall and more effets with the wind inland would be possible. Grounds already wet so it wouldn't take much wind to have issues here. Gotta wait to see what the euro and other models do overnight and see if the turn to the southeast is delayed or absent from them as well.

HiRes GFS...Yikes.

 

Screen Shot 2016-10-07 at 12.03.51 AM.png

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15 minutes ago, packbacker said:

HiRes GFS...Yikes.

 

Screen Shot 2016-10-07 at 12.03.51 AM.png

 

7 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Yeah that much water and then if you add any winds over 50mph its gonna spell power outages. Models aren't doing much for wind threat for us though.

Especially with all the rain eastern NC has already had. It won't have to be a major hurricane to do damage. Same thing happened with Fran because the ground was already so wet.

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My concern is now gonna switch to possible wind effects. If we start getting any sort of gusts on top of saturated ground and we have problems. I know with hermine there were baroclinic influences to keep his winds up. What's the chances of mathew doing the same as he moves up the coastline?

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