Cold Rain Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 9 minutes ago, Lookout said: I'm a bit more encouraged that ne ga and the western carolinas...especially the later...might get some half decent rain. Gfs has increased amounts with each run while in general there has been a gradual increase in how far northwest respectable amounts get. On top of that could get some decent wind gusts too. Gfs is showing 850mb winds near 55 to knots and 925 mb winds of 50 to 55 knots from athens to greenwood southward. Wouldn't take much more north movement at all to see higher winds than that. The weenie in me hopes so because I sure don't want to see it walk right up to the back door only to not come on in lol Yes, being on the doorstep of the gradient is the worst. It's like mby in winter lol! I'm hoping for some gusts around here, but it looks like it's going to remain too far south for winds much more than 30 mph or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 11 minutes ago, jshetley said: This reminds me a lot of Hermine now with where the cutoff was. Hopefully both of us get at least 1-2 inches of rain. This isn't too far from being a much bigger deal for both of us, with tons of rain and winds of 50-60 mph. A 50 mile west shift would probably do it. Sure would...it's very close. 12 uk looks a bit NW of earlier runs with the low N of savannah..although it's hard to tell with the course maps. As for rain we now have the infamous French model on our side too lol. Edit uk looks better too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Those rainfall forecasts are not good for southeastern Nc, we do not need the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Can someone confirm if this is correct from the UK? It looks weird. It would be crushing for SC, in terms of rain: Edit: 72 hr was a cached image. Will post the new one when I can. 60hr 72hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 18 minutes ago, downeastnc said: I am currently sitting at around 60" of rain for the year at my house, PGV is currently at 56.70"....the normal annual rainfall over the last 30 years for here is 49", so I am 11" above annual rainfall IMBY....PGV is only 2" off pace to beat the wettest year ever here at PGV......even worse is last year we missed breaking the wettest year ever by less than 1".....if this does end up close to the latest GFS's 8-10" that would almost put PGV into wettest all time year, with almost 3 more months to go ugh......if we get that much rain its going to mean most of eastern NC has had 120+" of rain over the last 2 years. Since June my weather station has logged 37.29". Add to that the 18.34" from January 1-May 31 and you get a grand total of 55.63" of rain so far this year. That's 7" of normal with three and half months left. Not sure what the record is for KECG which sits about 3.5 miles ENE of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Yep Ukie is even further NW,west of Hilton Head.Heavy rain pushing up into central SC and NC at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Can someone confirm if this is correct from the UK? It looks weird. It would be crushing for SC, in terms of rain: 60hr 72hr The 72 hour panel you posted was a cached one, below is the correct one. This would be a fairly bad track for NC/SC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 To add onto the UK, you can see the past 2 runs of Matthew, ticked east a little in the short term but relatively consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Here's the real 72 UK image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Also, again the GFS shifted NW with QPF shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 35 minutes ago, Lookout said: I'm a bit more encouraged that ne ga and the western carolinas...especially the later...might get some half decent rain. Gfs has increased amounts with each run while in general there has been a gradual increase in how far northwest respectable amounts get. On top of that could get some decent wind gusts too. Gfs is showing 850mb winds near 55 to knots and 925 mb winds of 50 to 55 knots from athens to greenwood southward. Wouldn't take much more north movement at all to see higher winds than that. The weenie in me hopes so because I sure don't want to see it walk right up to the back door only to not come on in lol Yeah we need the rain a lot here in SW WNC. We will take anything we can get. It's crazy how the NW and in Eastern NC have good amounts of rainfall and we have not gotten much of anything here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Looks like folks will have to worry about tornadoes, too. NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center 10 mins · The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting the potential for isolated tornadoes mainly Thursday afternoon and Thursday night along the middle and upper Florida east coast in association with Hurricane Matthew. The threat for isolated tornadoes will continue Friday for the upper Florida coast northward along the Georgia coast. The NWS encourages people to monitor the evolving dangerous weather conditions and seek shelter immediately if a local NWS forecast office issues a tornado warning. While the northeast quadrant of a hurricane (relative to storm motion) is the most likely area for tornado occurrence, tornadoes can and have occurred northwest of the center, which places the middle and upper Florida east coast at risk. The tornado risk is often greatest with outer bands of showers and thunderstorms well removed from the center of the hurricane, and therefore the risk to portions of the Florida east coast will begin Thursday afternoon and continue Thursday night. Most tornadoes associated with hurricanes occur during the afternoon and evening, but the risk continues into the overnight hours Thursday night and Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 First time the HWRF/GFDL are mostly in sync...both at 60 hours showing just east of MYR. Saturday is a complete washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Is this surprising? Dont tornadoes usually accompany major hurricanes or is that as rare as flooding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Biggest question mark for us now is the trough and how fast it exits.....seems there is still a slight trend to move Matt further NW a bit....if the trough holds on longer and stronger than modeled and Matt stays NNE or NE for even 12-24 hrs longer than modeled it would delay that sharper east and it would have major implications for coastal SC especially Georgetown up to Myrtle and obviously NC......I just don't want folks letting their guard down yet if it does stay 50-100 miles off FL and GA it could still be a mess up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Quote Starting to get some better convection all around the eye now. Edit: Almost looks like new eyewall trying to form (ERC)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Euro still going for Charleston at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Euro really stalls out at GA/SC line, it never gets above 32N (latitude of SAV) and it just rots away there, slowly sliding east. RAH gets 3-4" QPF, and it ramps up alot going towards ILM which is 12"+. In SC all the way back to CAE gets 5-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Heavier rain totals this run of Euro along SC coastal plain, then up into SE NC. Heavier rain also along I-77 from Columbia to Charlotte to Elkin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Euro is keeping the Bermuda ridge stronger so it tracks a little west of 0z and 12z yesterday, plus it keeps the high up up over the Northeast in place longer so it can't gain as much latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Major flooding headed to GA. Storm surge models show over 9 feet in many areas. There are lots of little inlets and channels that are going to have water pushed up into them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 A hate to keep harping but it also looks like savannah proper is going to have some serious issues. We may possibly see historic river street under water with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 11 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: A hate to keep harping but it also looks like savannah proper is going to have some serious issues. We may possibly see historic river street under water with this one. I would be very concerned for widespread areas of flooding (rivers overflowing / dam breaks) anywhere from Savannah to SE NC and all through the coastal plain in SC southeast of Columbia. Euro shows the storm slowing down after it reaches the east central coast of FL. From Friday aftn to Sat aftn, the storm only moves from near Jacksonville to off Hilton Head, with heavy rains thrown inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 Be aware that the ECMWF is showing 16.7" of precip west of Wilmington NC. Much more than FLorida..... See the ECMWF rainfall graphics This has potential to be the damaging 'non wind non surge' part of the storm.... Latest 200pm Briefing from NWS Wilmington NC http://www.weather.gov/media/ilm/LatestBriefing.pdf Image courtesy of WeatherBell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 4 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said: Be aware that the ECMWF is showing 16'7" of precip west of Wilmington NC. Much more than FLorida..... See the ECMWF rainfall graphics Florida has much more concern from storm surge and wind than the rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMA1973 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 16 feet 7 inches of precip west of Wilmington? Ummmm highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 58 minutes ago, griteater said: I would be very concerned for widespread areas of flooding (rivers overflowing / dam breaks) anywhere from Savannah to SE NC and all through the coastal plain in SC southeast of Columbia. Euro shows the storm slowing down after it reaches the east central coast of FL. From Friday aftn to Sat aftn, the storm only moves from near Jacksonville to off Hilton Head, with heavy rains thrown inland. It's surprising to me, every time I check the Charleston area storm surge maps there really isn't much there compared to what I see just an hour and a half away in Savannah. I'm wondering how much that might change if the storm stays over water but closer to the coast and wanders near CHS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 6 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said: It's surprising to me, every time I check the Charleston area storm surge maps there really isn't much there compared to what I see just an hour and a half away in Savannah. I'm wondering how much that might change if the storm stays over water but closer to the coast and wanders near CHS. The shape of the GA coast lends to very high storm surge potential. I do admit I am surprised at the rapid drop off. Even Savannah has much les surge than just down 10-20 miles farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 7 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said: It's surprising to me, every time I check the Charleston area storm surge maps there really isn't much there compared to what I see just an hour and a half away in Savannah. I'm wondering how much that might change if the storm stays over water but closer to the coast and wanders near CHS. one thing to note with the NOAA storm surge graphics.....there is a disclaimer in small print at the bottom of the graphic that state there is only a 1 in 10 chance that the levels shown will be exceeded......so I believe the intent of these values is to convey the worse case scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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