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Matthew


NWNC2015

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19 minutes ago, packbacker said:

This is bad for FL/GA/SC coast, per this run.  SE NC too. 

I can't imagine SC coastal regions, storm surge plus this amt of wind/rain.

Screen Shot 2016-10-05 at 12.02.49 PM.png

I mentioned this in the other thread.  The shape of the coast from GA up to NC is really going to allow some high storm surge with this track. 

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GA would get crushed, the caveat though is the GFS track has the center on the coast and it will weaken a lot, this thing wont stay a strong or probably even weak hurricane if the center rides up 400 miles of Florida coast before getting to GA....this will still push tons of water into GA and SC but if it stayed 75 miles offshore before getting up there it would be worse.....

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25 minutes ago, packbacker said:

This is bad for FL/GA/SC coast, per this run.  SE NC too. 

I can't imagine SC coastal regions, storm surge plus this amt of wind/rain.

Screen Shot 2016-10-05 at 12.02.49 PM.png

Storm surge water lines were 20 feet 10 miles north of CHS in Hugo, 13 feet on IOP.  Different angle, but if this storm hugs the coast and is down around 940 or lower along with that rain.  Yikes!

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5 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

Ugh!  I hope nobody lets their guard down. The most worrisome is the potentially historic flooding, regardless of the exact placement. It's pretty much guaranteed to put down widespread 10+ amounts of rain with the expected slowdown. Some areas will have hurricane force winds on top of that. Power outages and widespread damage is highly probable for many areas. I sure hope that the media plays this right and not flopping with every model run. 

Yeah i think the biggest problems for ga and the carolinas could be the rain as it seems like there is a decent chance mathew makes it on shore and weakens in florida. What will be interesting to see though is how a much weaker system would move...if it does weaken a lot. I would think it might not feel the trough as much being a shallower system and maybe not get as far north but then again shallower systems often will be pushed westward more the low level flow around ridges. It probably won't become shallow enough for that to happen unless it gets really far inland but given the margin for error any difference could be significant in terms of impact, strength, track, etc.

4 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

I mentioned this in the other thread.  The shape of the coast from GA up to NC is really going to allow some high storm surge with this track. 

It really is a unique track...maybe the hurricane historians could tell us if there has been any track similar to this before.

 

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3 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Yeah i think the biggest problems for ga and the carolinas could be the rain as it seems like there is a decent chance mathew makes it on shore and weakens in florida. What will be interesting to see though is how a much weaker system would move...if it does weaken a lot. I would think it might not feel the trough as much being a shallower system and maybe not get as far north but then again shallower systems often will be pushed westward more the low level flow around ridges. It probably won't become shallow enough for that to happen unless it gets really far inland but given the margin for error any difference could be significant in terms of impact, strength, track, etc.

It really is a unique track...maybe the hurricane historians could tell us if there has been any track similar to this before.

 

sea islands hurricane 1893. Coastal hugger. Made landfall between Savannah and Hilton Head, absolutely raked Charleston.  (in regards to Coastal hugging from NE Fl to SC

640px-1893_Atlantic_hurricane_9_track.png

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5 minutes ago, Stormsfury said:

sea islands hurricane 1893. Coastal hugger. Made landfall between Savannah and Hilton Head, absolutely raked Charleston.

Thanks..so it's been quite a long time. Always cool to see something so rare. Looks a lot like the 12z cmc.

gem_mslp_pcpn_us_11.png

 

12z cmc is  a bit further west and agrees with the other models. In fact it brings some decent rains into the western carolinas and ohhhh so close to even giving ne ga some appreciable rain. I've been a little curious as to why the models, in particular the gfs are so dry across eastern ga and the western carolinas...would think there would at least be some half decent bands of showers/storms at it's closest approach.

gem_apcpn_us_25.png

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8 minutes ago, Stormsfury said:

sea islands hurricane 1893. Coastal hugger. Made landfall between Savannah and Hilton Head, absolutely raked Charleston.  (in regards to Coastal hugging from NE Fl to SC

640px-1893_Atlantic_hurricane_9_track.png

Interesting...very similar except the loop mathew is expected to make. 12z uk looks very similar to the canadian..looks like you could have some fun.

GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

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Just now, Lookout said:

Thanks..so it's been quite a long time. Always cool to see something so rare.

12z cmc is  a bit further west and agrees with the other models. In fact it brings some decent rains into the western carolinas and ohhhh so close to even giving ne ga some appreciable rain. I've been a little curious as to why the models, in particular the gfs are so dry across eastern ga and the western carolinas...would think there would at least be some half decent bands of showers/storms at it's closest approach.

gem_apcpn_us_25.png

The GFS may not have shown the extreme rainfalls because it looked tonme that some kind of transition was taking place.  The 850mb winds were modeled quite strongly though from SE GA to Eastern South Carolina from hr 78 and remaining in the Lowcounty of SC thru hour 96! 64kt to 80kt 850mb winds!

Thank goodness I can use tropical tidbits model page on my phone.  

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4 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Lot more precip back in central/western NC on the UKMET at hour 72

This thing may be close to where Hermine was as far as the precip on it's west side. We got close to 3/4 of an inch here from him and now the GFS is showing .30-.50 near me now with of course much more southeast of here. The sharp cutoff is just northwest of me for now, where areas withing 20 miles from me get very little as it stands at the moment.

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27 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Interesting...very similar except the loop mathew is expected to make. 12z uk looks very similar to the canadian..looks like you could have some fun.

GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

Yeah. Not exactly fun but it is what it is. 

Guidance on the 12z cycle bring Matthew to make landfall or be within about 50 miles of CHS.  Could be a colossal raking of the coast and just inland counties.

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10 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Much different in today's world. People are informed, educated on the impact, and can get out of the way much easier. 

TW

agree......but I own property down there......believe me, there will be a lot of folks who think they can ride this out.  To me the amount of surge that area will receive will be tough to forecast properly and it will probably come late in the game.  There could be a number of people caught off guard and be in harms way if things unfold wrong.

 

Those islands were under 10 feet of water in that storm.....even today who would expect that from a category 3 storm?

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4 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

Anyone know the last major hurricane to make landfall along Florida's east coast?

Andrew in 1992 if you count Miami on the East coast and not the South Coast. 

 

Otherwise it would be the storm on August 26, 1949 that hit Lantana/ Lake Worth as a cat 4. BTW, this is land fall hurricane. 

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1 hour ago, Lookout said:

Yeah i think the biggest problems for ga and the carolinas could be the rain as it seems like there is a decent chance mathew makes it on shore and weakens in florida. What will be interesting to see though is how a much weaker system would move...if it does weaken a lot. I would think it might not feel the trough as much being a shallower system and maybe not get as far north but then again shallower systems often will be pushed westward more the low level flow around ridges. It probably won't become shallow enough for that to happen unless it gets really far inland but given the margin for error any difference could be significant in terms of impact, strength, track, etc.

It really is a unique track...maybe the hurricane historians could tell us if there has been any track similar to this before.

 

With Georgia's relatively small coastline and the curve it seems like getting landfall in Ga is rather unique.  However, it has been a pretty dry (and boring) late summer/early fall.  We could really use some good rains up this way from a tropical system

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2 hours ago, Avdave said:

Listening to Gov McCrory and he is in love with the Euro model. He is hoping it is right.  Weird to see a politician using and calling out a certain wx model :lol:

 

Science is not a strong point of the current NC leadership. Remember, we passed a bill banning sea rise on the NC coast.

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