metalicwx366 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 What's so funny Matthew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Its wsw motion that has commenced this evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 0z gfs coming in farther south by 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 GFS is close to the big dog for eastern NC. Looks like a pretty unlikely solution , as it spins off a low from Matthew to the NE and that opens up a hole in the ridge. Being octover the odds of a recurve are higher, but that particular way seems unlikely. Considering we're 7 days out, eastern NC it def' still in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 Recon says intensifying 1mb per hour. That can wreak havoc on a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 Here we go... HURRICANE MATTHEW TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 120 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Matthew has rapidly strengthened and that the maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (160 km/h). A special advisory will be issued by 2 AM AST to update the intensity forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 0z GFDL runs it into east coast of Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 NHC 2am This also requires significant changes to the intensity forecast, which now calls for Matthew to reach major hurricane status in 24 hours and maintain it through 96 hours. It is unclear how long the rapid strengthening will continue, and the revised forecast could be conservative. There are no changes to the forecast track from the previous regular advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 0z ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 euro ensemble, no threat to s/e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 7 hours ago, HKY_WX said: GFS is close to the big dog for eastern NC. Looks like a pretty unlikely solution , as it spins off a low from Matthew to the NE and that opens up a hole in the ridge. Being octover the odds of a recurve are higher, but that particular way seems unlikely. Considering we're 7 days out, eastern NC it def' still in play. Models are consistently running a recurve now. It makes the most sense this time of year and it would be hard to get Mathew to run a due N or NNW heading out of the Bahamas unless the setup was absolutely perfect. Its gonna be close and the coast is going to have some big problems with erosion and big surf but I'm starting to believe this is not going to have any direct landfalls in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 8 hours ago, HKY_WX said: GFS is close to the big dog for eastern NC. Looks like a pretty unlikely solution , as it spins off a low from Matthew to the NE and that opens up a hole in the ridge. Being octover the odds of a recurve are higher, but that particular way seems unlikely. Considering we're 7 days out, eastern NC it def' still in play. Which means, given the precision of modeling tropical systems, this one's going into the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Matthew is now a cat 3 hurricane. 115mph wind, 968mb pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Looks pretty good, imagine if there was no shear.....it would be a monster. Plenty of time to sort out if this is a threat down the road...we wont be sure until early next week if this thing is a threat or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Interesting change on GFS, the low in the NE scoots out quicker allowing Atlantic ridge to build in. Still may miss but definitely keeps its a little further west and much slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 21 minutes ago, packbacker said: Interesting change on GFS, the low in the NE scoots out quicker allowing Atlantic ridge to build in. Still may miss but definitely keeps its a little further west and much slower. It went from a near Bermuda re-curve to an East Coast hit into Maine...in one run.....quiet a lot going on through 200 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 27 minutes ago, packbacker said: Interesting change on GFS, the low in the NE scoots out quicker allowing Atlantic ridge to build in. Still may miss but definitely keeps its a little further west and much slower. The high on the CMC is hanging out in a better spot through 132 as well. Still looks to miss but atleast the high is there to its north for this run instead of that pesky low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 23 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: It went from a near Bermuda re-curve to an East Coast hit into Maine...in one run.....quiet a lot going on through 200 hours. 19 minutes ago, shaggy said: The high on the CMC is hanging out in a better spot through 132 as well. Still looks to miss but atleast the high is there to its north for this run instead of that pesky low. UK sure does have stout atl ridge at day 6. Its not escaping east on the UK, assuming it's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 CMC enhances the moisture for the CAD regions from Matthew...cloudy, cool, and wet. Primarily North Carolina and far west as the western foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Wow...latest recon has 960 with close to 125mph surface winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Somebody - please refresh my recollection (major point I should know but I'm drawing a blank after lunch on a Friday) - Does a strong storm or a weak storm react more to dynamics such as approaching fronts or troughs or ridges north and west of it? Which is more inclined not to be steered by other such conditions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 I expect the track to move significantly as everyone waits for it to make this sharp turn north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 19 minutes ago, packbacker said: UK sure does have stout atl ridge at day 6. Its not escaping east on the UK, assuming it's correct How has the verification been on the Ukie this tropical season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 1 minute ago, shaggy said: How has the verification been on the Ukie this tropical season? Good question, not sure, but UK always been a good model. Still 6+ days out so I would expect changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 26 minutes ago, Wow said: I expect the track to move significantly as everyone waits for it to make this sharp turn north. Yep and then its gonna bee a race to see if it can get east enough to miss the US, once it crosses 75W it HAS to go east at some point to miss the US.... the GFS and CMC both have that sharp east turn south of Cape Fear a good ways off shore....still I wont feel like its gonna miss until it actually starts that east turn lol....assuming the GFS/CMC track is more or less right of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Euro carries the them of scooting out the low up in the NE and building in the atl ridge, slow crawling through the Bahamas. Looks similar to the UK through day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Euro carries the them of scooting out the low up in the NE and building in the atl ridge, slow crawling through the Bahamas. Looks similar to the UK through day 6. Yeah thats a fairly significant change versus the 00Z run, seems likely to push it closer and further up the coast before turning it now.....its gonna be a long 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 34 minutes ago, packbacker said: Euro carries the them of scooting out the low up in the NE and building in the atl ridge, slow crawling through the Bahamas. Looks similar to the UK through day 6. yep atl ridge stronger going to end up further west than 0z as a result. not a good trend for the bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Just now, downeastnc said: Yeah thats a fairly significant change versus the 00Z run....its gonna be a long 7 days Yep, I think someone said it above, until it turns north and we know how strong the ridge in the atlantic will be. Kind of pointless looking at anything past days 3-4 on the models. Euro just rakes the Bahama's for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Just now, packbacker said: Yep, I think someone said it above, until it turns north and we know how strong the ridge in the atlantic will be. Kind of pointless looking at anything past days 3-4 on the models. Euro just rakes the Bahama's for several days. They just got hammered last year too......sucks for them.....probably gonna be a major cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.