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PaEasternWX

PTC Matthew

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Peak winds both 06z and 07z (0200h and 0300h EDT) were gusts to 71 mph at Vero Beach, joined by Melbourne in the later hour. Peak gusts at the Cape Canaveral offshore buoy have peaked as high as 58 knots. 

Landfall situation looks about the same, most probably partial landfall near Cape Canaveral, would say 0730h EDT to 0830h EDT. 

Will predict peak gusts to 110 mph at Melbourne but possibly 120-130 away from measuring sites in Titusville and Port Canaveral.

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Good ol' buoy 41009, above, and and 41114 just to its west are both reporting 20+' wave heights.

41114 - http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41114 - 23.6ft at 2:30 Eastern (almost an hour ago)

41009 - 42.7KT winds, 56.3KT Gusting ... http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009 - 22.6ft at 2:50 Eastern

Update:  41009 is reporting 50K winds, 68G, and 29.9ft wave heights as of 3:50am

 

 

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08z (0400h EDT) peak winds on land ___ 74 mph (W) at Vero Beach, 67 mph (N) at Melbourne

also 64 kt (about 75 mph) gusts from northeast at ocean buoy 41009 east of Cape Canaveral. 

Intense outer eyewall bands west to northwest of eye are very close to outer barrier islands around Cocoa Beach, expect wind gusts there to ramp up to near 100 mph soon. Eye center appears to be 35 miles e.s.e. Melbourne, recent motion is about 320 deg.

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Looks like the newest cone from the NHC at 5am has the NC southern coast back in play and the mean line is closer to shore then previous tracks the past few days.  May be something we need to watch?  Maybe this reflects the models that have been coming in that I've seen referenced here and there yesterday.  :mellow:

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Looks like the newest cone from the NHC at 5am has the NC southern coast back in play and the mean line is closer to shore then previous tracks the past few days.  May be something we need to watch?  Maybe this reflects the models that have been coming in that I've seen referenced here and there yesterday.  :mellow:


It definitely shows it riding along the SC coast further north now (more north than Edisto beach now) and Hurricane warnings have been adjusted accordingly.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Significant enhancement in KDP with the high reflectivity in the outer/dominant eyewall. One of the radials in ZDR heading towards the north-northeast also shows values becoming more negative, indicating differential attenuation (H-polarized wave is attenuated more than the V-polarized wave by the raindrops). Definitely a sign of heavy rainfall in the eyewall!

20161007_0939_0.5.png

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9 minutes ago, Animal said:

Surprised not higher. Eye wall looks to be on them now

We should be seeing sustained winds of 100 mph or higher for what is reported for the strength of the storm.

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The eye is offshore and its interior structure is a bit ragged.  Matthew has probably weakened over the past several hours.  I don't think we're likely to see 100mph sustained so far from the center unless or until it strengthens or makes landfall.

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17 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The eye is offshore and its interior structure is a bit ragged.  Matthew has probably weakened over the past several hours.  I don't think we're likely to see 100mph sustained so far from the center unless or until it strengthens or makes landfall.

Weather underground stations in cape canaveral are reporting sustained winds 25 to 38 mph only recently. Gust 45 to 55 mph. Very strange as the eye wall is kissing them.

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Wouldn't it be much worse for Georgia and South Carolina for wind, then Florida , because they will get the north quadrant of the storm, as opposed to the weaker western side?

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7 minutes ago, Animal said:

Weather underground stations in cape canaveral are reporting sustained winds 25 to 38 mph only recently. Gust 45 to 55 mph. Very strange as the eye wall is kissing them.

Unreliable, uncalibrated stations maybe. Official stations away from the eyewall are having no problem exceeding TS force:

KDAB 071122Z AUTO 02040G56KT

KMLB 071132Z AUTO 26034G51KT

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It would be something if the eye never makes landfall.

Cape Hatteras should be on alert as the models inched northward overnight.

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Would appear best chance for actual landfall would be CHS area (not as a major almost certainly, NHC has it as a Cat 2 at that time). SC coast will have a major surge problem if that happens.

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16 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It would be something if the eye never makes landfall.

Capr Hatteras should be on alert as the models inched northward overnight.

Well it looks like FL will catch a HUGE break! Unless we see a more western push this morning it will miss the coast by 30 or so miles.  If that is the case then the hurricane sustained winds will be confined to the coast.

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