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PaEasternWX

PTC Matthew

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9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think I heard 1989 and some time in the late 70s were the othet two and I don't think either was because of a hurricane because I don't recall major hurricanes hitting that area in either of those periods 

Floyd and Charlie 

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Right around the GA coast is when most modeling shows significant weakening.

I'm hoping the models are right with the weakening. I know it's a bit more challenging to forecast intensities vs. track.

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1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

Isn't that WAYY NW compared to all of the other models?? 

It's only slightly NW of the 00z ECMWF and identical to the 12z GFS position.

The difference is that the HWRF brings the center further NW towards Charleston while the GFS and Euro have already started moving East away from land.

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7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

12z HWRF never really brings the center onshore until near Jacksonville but the Western eyewall tracks along the coast from PBI North. Then the HWRF takes Matthew up the GA coast and is over Charleston by Saturday afternoon. Savannah makes it into the Western eyewall and the center likely goes right over Hilton head.  

Yeah but it is a HECK of alot stronger. Blows up over the GS, gets down to near 920 mb.

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Question for mets and other knowledgeable people.  Models are generally showing the eye riding along/near the coast for a long distance.  We've seen systems appear to tighten up as they approach land due to frictional effects.  Obviously that is not really needed in this case but could the landmass have an impact on the track by "pulling" the center inland earlier than expected or, on the other end, keep it offshore?  Or is there just no way to know which is more likely?

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The Palm Beach International METAR was kinda cool:

 

Quote

METAR KPBI 061653Z AUTO 03018G26KT 5SM R10L/2600VP6000FT +RA BKN023 BKN031 OVC040 28/24 A2967 RMK AO2 PK WND 04030/1635 RAB13 SLP046 STATION EVACUATING DUE TO HURRICANE MATTHEW P0011 T02780244

 

Still doesn't beat Homestead's "GONE WITH THE WIND" METAR before Andrew.

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yeah but it is a HECK of alot stronger. Blows up over the GS, gets down to near 920 mb.

What are you talking about? You can't even see what the GFS and Euro are showing for SLP because of reasons that DTK gave yesterday or the day before.

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

What are you talking about? You can't even see what the GFS and Euro are showing for SLP because of reasons that DTK gave yesterday or the day before.

Dude, ease up on the caffeine, lol. Compare the HWRF to it's 6z run. Big drop in pressure. Who said a thing about the GFS or Euro?

12Z vs 6Z:

 

hwrf_mslp_wind_14L_7.png

hwrf_mslp_wind_14L_9.png

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6 minutes ago, scoresman said:

Floyd and Charlie 

WDW closed for Floyd, 9/11, and a power outage in 2002. I was in Orlando for my honeymoon during Charley, but I don't remember it closing.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

This isn't going to be anything like Hugo once it gets up that way. The combination of increased shear, cooler SST and land interaction will take its toll on the core by then.

charleston will be in rough shape because of the flooding. latest models showing extreme rainfall amounts 10"+ that will put much of downtown underwater.  it floods during a summer thunderstorm, and now with surge + excessive rainfall the impacts will be significant.

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20 minutes ago, Rickg2 said:

evacuation orders  for places east of i-95 near Savannah, I was on the phone with my father (he is near tybee Island) and he got the call. they are being told to expect a strong surge.

I've heard 8-12' expected in tybee and the other GA barrier islands.  This area is hardly even affected by that kind of surge.  The flooding will be incredible along the GA coast.

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26 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Question for mets and other knowledgeable people.  Models are generally showing the eye riding along/near the coast for a long distance.  We've seen systems appear to tighten up as they approach land due to frictional effects.  Obviously that is not really needed in this case but could the landmass have an impact on the track by "pulling" the center inland earlier than expected or, on the other end, keep it offshore?  Or is there just no way to know which is more likely?

That's a really good question. I tried researching this a couple of days ago and it's hard to find academic literature that discusses this specifically. It seems there are 2 theories from what I could find. One is that the eyewall will constrict (and probably deform) due to friction slowing the surface winds and causing them to "bend in" more and converge producing a net inward radially force (cyclostrophic balance temporarily interrupted). The other is that the wind field may spread out (Katrina and Wilma both exhibited this behavior). It has been claimed Katrina did this because it's total kinetic energy could not dissipate as fast as the friction was slowing it down so it had to conserve angular momentum by broadening its wind field. See Reconstruction of Hurricane Katrina’s wind fields for storm surge and wave hindcasting by Powell, et. al's take regarding Katrina's behavior. Is it possible for both to happen at the same time? Regarding whether it "locks" onto land I'm not sure.

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3 minutes ago, adam038 said:

WDW closed for Floyd, 9/11, and a power outage in 2002. I was in Orlando for my honeymoon during Charley, but I don't remember it closing.

 

We are going to get yelled at for banter in a non banter thread :)

 

http://www.themeparkinsider.com/news/response.cfm?ID=1809

 

Hurricane Charley's arrival on Florida's Gulf Coast prompted most central Florida theme parks to close early Friday afternoon. Disney's Animal Kingdom and Busch Gardens Tampa never opened for the day, according to park publicists.

Walt Disney World, Universal Orlando and SeaWorld Orlando closed in the early afternoon and parks hotel guests were urged to stay in their rooms. The parks previously closed for a hurricane in 1999 when Hurricane Floyd hit the state.

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1 minute ago, Tater Tot said:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb weather/current weather conditions (south florida large scale loop)

 

Definitely looks like an ERC. What are the chances it's finished by landfall?

I don't think so, that is like 50nmi in diameter, far too large to be a double eye. I would lean toward it just being banding. It could be for sure, but it looks like it's too big in diameter imo.

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